The Pirates left St. Louis with a bad loss to fall to 45-50. But they are still at least in striking distance of the division but more so the wildcard. And while the Pirates begin to look more like sellers everyday, it might not be that simple.
The NL is crammed, and this could lead to some interesting moves, especially with only one trade deadline now. A lot more teams have been open to buying and selling at the same time. And the Pirates are no stranger to this, doing it in 2016 and 2017. Even last year made the big buy moves in July but the sell moves in August came. The NL is set up well for this buy and sell philosophy as teams re-tool and let their young guys get a crack. The Pirates might do this too. They could simultaneously trade the rental pieces but also acquire controllable assets at the same time.
But what would they need? The answer is obvious. It’s pitching. Getting Kela and Taillon back would help, but they need more than that. Could be another year of getting starting and relief pitching at the deadline. Let’s look at who is out there.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Bauer:
The Indians are in the thick of the AL Central race but have concerns over long-term success and payroll. The time may be just ripe for them to trade Bauer. Waiting until the offseason might hurt the value and market for him as the acquiring team wouldn’t have him for the extra playoff push and the Indians’ desperation to move him would grow larger. His salary for next year, his final year of arbitration, could approach $20M.
Bauer is an interesting case, however. At 28 years old, he has never thrown 200 innings in any season and was kind of only an okay mid-rotation type until last season where he pitched like an ace. However, this season, he has regressed again and actually a good bit. His ERA is nearly 1.50 runs higher and his FIP is over 2 runs higher. He is also projected to finish well short of his outstanding 5.8 WAR number from last year. He’s been good but not great this season.
His salary could be intrusive for the Pirates payroll plus he said he wouldn’t sign long-term anywhere but instead a bunch of 1-year deals. He’s good but might not be dealt until the offseason and more likely than not the Pirates won’t give up the prospects or want to pay his contract next year. This is especially true given his inconsistent performance the last couple of years. You don’t know if you’ll get the ace Bauer or the middle-rotation version of Bauer. The latter isn’t worth the money and we’ve only seen the former for one season out of six. Risky gamble.
Marcus Stroman:
Stroman is a decent middle of the rotation starter that is controlled through next year. His salary will be high but not absurdly so as super 2 in his fourth arbitration year. But his peripherals aren’t terrific and his injury issues are a huge concern as well. They don’t need to mess up a bigger trade again by acquiring a big name that might not deliver enough production-wise.
Robbie Ray:
It’s no secret that the Pirates have long liked Robbie Ray. He’s not a great starter but he can get the job done. And the Diamondbacks have made him available despite chasing a playoff berth again. He is controlled through next year at what should be a reasonable rate.
Would the Diamondbacks really trade him to a team chasing them in the standings in a crammed race though? If they think it won’t make a difference, perhaps. But we’ll see. He would have a year and a half of control and would solidify a rotation. Plus, the Pirates like him and have for awhile. Remember, they liked Archer for a long time before acquiring him too.
Mike Minor:
Mike Minor looks like a likely candidate to be traded, even as the Rangers chase a playoff berth. They realize his value in a trade may never be higher than now. His injury history and possible regression might lead to a trade here. For what it’s worth he’s not a bad pitcher and at $9M a year, he’s a good value at that price even if he regresses a bit. He’s also controllable through 2020.
But the injuries and regression are an issue that might keep some teams away and the Pirates might be more risk adverse after last year. He is a quality lefty that is not making a ton of money overall. Might be worth the gamble depending on the price.
Jon Gray:
The Rockies are sliding bad right now, so the playoff team from last year may be looking to unload a bit. Jon Gray might be an option here. Gray has held his own well in the majors despite pitching a lot in Coors Field. The former top 5 pick could be even better outside of Colorado.
The issue is that he is still under team control for awhile and the Rockies have a nice core that had made the playoffs the last two years. This recent slide might not change that. Rockies might need an unreasonable haul to move him right now, something the Pirates can ill-afford.
Relief Pitchers:
Ken Giles:
Giles has dealt with some injuries this year, but he might be looking a bit like the Giles of old again and the rebuilding Blue Jays could capitalize on that. The righty with some nasty stuff would make an awesome compliment to Vazquez for the rest of this year and next year, and could set up a backend next year involving Giles, Santana, Kela and Vazquez. Could be near unbeatable if Crick regains form and Rodriguez continues what he’s been doing.
Mychal Givens:
Givens has been up and down this year. But he had some good years in the past that suggest he can get it back. The Orioles may not trade him at a low value like this though, especially when they control him through 2021 and can wait to see if he bounces back and trade him then instead. If he’s available though, a buy-low opportunity could be there.
Shawn Kelley:
Kelley has never been a great reliever but he can get the job done. If the Rangers have Minor out there, Kelley could be too. They signed him to an absurdly cheap contract with a no-risk and cheap club option for 2020.
Problem is the Pirates could have had him for almost nothing this offseason and didn’t seem to want him. Why would they want to give up an asset or two for him now? Would be a cheaper addition than some others though and he’s at least an effective reliever.
Andrew Chafin:
Chafin has been a sneaky good reliever the last few years in Arizona. He doesn’t get a lot of talk, but he’s been solid. Not great but he gets it done. The lefty is controllable through 2020 and could set up a Chafin, Kela and Vazquez tandem with Santana as an option in the backend too next year. Whether the Dbacks trade him or not is a concern but if Ray is available then so should Chafin. Perhaps even Archie Bradley would be available in Arizona.
Kirby Yates:
This is one the Pirates considered in the past. Just last year, they had real conversations with the Padres about Yates and pairing him with Vazquez. They eventually went for the easier to acquire Kela. Yates has been dominant but at 32 years of age and only controllable through 2020, I think the youthful Padres could be convinced to deal him to get players who can help them in 2021 and beyond where they look like they’ll be in line to really contend, after Yates would be gone. They said they’d need a haul to get him, which should be the case, but I think they can be made flexible here. It’s not like he’s 28 with 4.5 years of pretty cheap control and is the best reliever in the game as a lefty (wonder who that is).
Point is, Pirates nearly paired Yates with Vazquez last year before settling on Kela. Perhaps they would want to create a big trio this time with Kela, Yates and Vazquez. This would solve the bullpen issues big time. Is it a pipe dream? Almost definitely. But given the Pirates explored it just last season, it can’t be entirely ruled out. In the end, the prospect cost might be way too exuberant for a reliever though.
The Pirates could be set up to both buy and sell this year. They could re-tool their roster and see if they can find a spark the rest of the year while being set up even better for next year by having controllable pieces, leaving the offseason as a time to just supplement their roster around the edges.
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