49ers selection of Trey Lance amongst the boldest in draft history

The 49ers were the talk of the draft for a month and it came into fruition Thursday when they selected their new franchise quarterback in Trey Lance. In my opinion, this could be amongst the boldest picks in NFL draft history. Let me explain.

Trey Lance is one of the most intriguing draft prospects ever given everything about him. First, he is turning just 21 in a few days. Second, he played at the FCS level. Third, he hasn’t played competitive football in a long time. He has super talent, but he’s one of the toughest evaluations in recent draft history given all of that, especially with information harder for come by on players due to COVID. A guy that is already a big mystery is an even bigger one this year with that. 

Shanahan said he identified Lance as his guy all the way back in January. And they made the trade in late March to get to 3 to select him. That takes guts considering they are spending three 1sts and a 3rd on a player, much less one that’s such a tough evaluation in Lance given his circumstances, even if he’s a mega-talent. It’s actually crazy and reckless, but it takes a lot of guts and a lot of vision. And they clearly had the conviction to do it. 

I credit Shanahan here, he likely saw something in Lance way back in January that gave him visions of something special happening if he could get him. And then he went after it hard. This is very similar to what the Chiefs did with Mahomes. They saw something others just didn’t and really went after him hard. He put all his chips on the table here. It’s a big cost and it’s a very risky player to take a chance on but the potential is limitless with him here with Shanahan. I can’t think of a better pairing than this. If Shanahan has this much conviction of a guy like Lance, the league should be scared. I’m so sorry, opposing defenses. 

Final NFL Mock Draft

It is now draft day! It’s been a crazy draft season and it will be a crazy draft! This will be my final best guess of what we’ll see today. 

Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson:

No need to spend much time on this one. Everyone knows it. It’s obvious. Let’s move on.

Jets: Zach Wilson, QB BYU:

With Darnold now traded, there is a lot of clarity for the Jets. They could throw a curveball here and choose Fields but I think it’ll be Wilson. I’m probably one of the only ones not totally penciling it in though. 

49ers: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State:

Lance has all the tools that Shanahan wants in a QB plus some more. His offense at NDSU most resembles Shanahan’s. Could be a nice fit. I’ve been thinking Lance for a bit now. Not moving off that. 

Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida:

This guy is a stud. He’s the best non-QB in this draft given the star power and positional scarcity. He’s going to be scary. Falcons could trade down here but why not just take Pitts. He’s more valuable than whatever trade package they’d get. 

Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon:

Smart teams build through the trenches. Getting a playmaker to replace Green, especially one that played with Burrow at LSU would be fun but not effective. Get the top tackle now and worry about the skill guys later. Remember that they got Higgins at pick 33 last year. 

Dolphins: Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern: 

Dolphins fans might rip their hair out over passing on all these skill guys for the second best tackle. Some have Slater as better, and as I said, you need to get the trenches in order before anything else. Nobody should know that better than Brian Flores, who watched Belichick do it that way. I would like this pick for them, even if most wouldn’t. 

Lions: JaMarr Chase, WR LSU: 

It’s a miracle for the Lions that Chase fell this far due to QB and OT needs. What a steal here for them. 

Patriots (trade with Panthers): Justin Fields, QB Ohio State:

I don’t understand Fields falling but it is a legitimate possibility. Patriots would be ecstatic to trade up to get him. I’m sick thinking about it. 

Broncos: Micah Parsons, LB Penn State:

Parsons is actually the first defensive player off the board. Very talented LB prospect. Some questions, but he can play. 

Cowboys: Patrick Surtain, CB Alabama:

Surtain is such a safe pick here. I hate that term but the Cowboys need players like this on defense. Surtain is very talented though. 

Giants: Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama:

Golladay and Waddle. My god. No excuses for Daniel Jones now. 

Eagles: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama:

Some questions about Smith’s weight could cause him to fall here. Eagles won’t mind. DeSean Jackson was small and worked out just fine for them. 

Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech:

Chargers need offensive line help to protect Herbert. It’s a good class to get a tackle. 

Vikings: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia:

Weird to see a pass-rush class where there isn’t a sure fire one drafted top 5, much less top 10. Ojulari might even be considered a reach here at 14. 

Panthers (trade with Patriots): Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina:

I love Horn. I think he’ll great. Adding a CB like him can help lock down that defense. 

Cardinals: Greg Newsome II, CB Northwestern:

Cardinals need a corner to replace Peterson. They get one here. Newsome can easily go higher than people expect. He’s good. 

Raiders: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame:

Raiders could easily draft a 2nd or 3rd round talent here as usual, but I can’t project that unfortunately. 

Dolphins: Najee Harris, RB Alabama:

This one could surprise people, but I wouldn’t be. They did the trenches work at 6 and now can get Harris here. He’s technically a running back but I see him more as an offensive weapon. 

Saints (trade with WFT): Mac Jones, QB Alabama:

After all that talk of Jones at 3, he winds up at 19. Saints move up to get him. 

Bears: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL USC:

Just a solid offensive line pick. It’s good. It’ll do. 

Colts: Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas:

Colts are always churning out talent on the offensive line. Do it again here.

Titans: Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota:

Doesn’t mask their biggest need, but it does replace Corey Davis. 

Jets: Travis Etienne, RB Clemson:

Etienne is actually the first RB off the board. Jets need big help in this area. Etienne honestly fits their offense more than Harris. 

Steelers: Creed Humphrey, OC Oklahoma:

I’m a huge fan of Humphrey. Steelers can solve their center issue for a long time right here. 

Jaguars: Trevon Moehrig, S TCU:

Jaguars continue to try to rebuild the defense here. It’s not a great safety class but Moehrig stands out. First-round talent there.

Browns: Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan:

Paye is a bit risky but his ceiling is very high. Browns could pair him with Myles Garrett and go nuts. 

Ravens: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU:

I’m not convinced the Ravens are done at WR after adding Watkins. Marshall benefited from Chase sitting out this past season. He could surprise a bit as a late 1st rounder. 

WFT (trade with Saints): Jaman Davis, LB Kentucky:

After moving down, Washington gets more help for their defense. Just what they need. 

Packers: Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa:

I like Collins a lot. Packers definitely need a linebacker. Another year where they don’t draft a skill player on offense for Rodgers. He’s gonna be so mad that he’s going to throw for 6000 yards and 63 TDs/3 INTs. Sorry rest of NFL. 

Bills: Joe Tryon, EDGE Washington:

Don’t love to follow the trends but many think this guy is going round 1. Bills are still built as a defense-first team, or at least that’s the hope. 

Ravens: Joseph Ossai, EDGE Texas:

Ravens got this pick by trading Orlando Brown to the Chiefs. Their 1st pick solved WR. Their second goes to doing something they do well. Quality pass-rush. 

Bucs: Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn State:

Bucs defense gets better to compliment that offense. The defending champs get a bit better. 

Thanks for following along this season! Have a fun draft everyone! 

The thought of drafting Mac Jones has 49ers fans recalling bad draft memories

The persistence of the Mac Jones to the 49ers rumors will not cease. Fans of the team are really on edge as we approach the draft, rightfully so. Them drafting Jones over Fields and Lance would bring the fans a great number of horrible flashbacks. For this, let’s look back at the 2005 NFL Draft.

The 49ers picked number 1 that year and were set to take be able to take an awesome QB. But the choice wasn’t entirely clear as there were two options. Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. Smith, while athletic, was seen as the safer pick. He was seen as the “high floor” guy. Rodgers was oozing with talent and potential, but there were questions. 

“With the 1st pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select Alex Smith, Quarterback, Utah” was what was read on draft night. The 49ers had rejected the guy with way more potential and a guy from California and even played at Cal. 

It was not seen as an overly popular move in some circles and the fan base wasn’t fully on board. A lot of people wanted Rodgers, who somehow fell all the way to 24. Rodgers was asked after if he was upset to not be picked by the 49ers and he said “not as upset as they’ll be that they didn’t draft me.” He was right, and that very quote still haunts the fanbase to this day as Rodgers will have a gold jacket waiting for him as soon as he is eligible. No disrespect for Smith as I really like him and have nothing but respect for him, but he didn’t really pan out for the 49ers. Had a little stretch where he was decent, but then he got replaced by Kaepernick and then dealt to the Chiefs. He carved out a decent career for himself, but his days in San Francisco weren’t great overall, and they passed on the guy who became great.

Mac Jones over Fields and Lance could have a similar feel. Drafting Smith over Rodgers has often been seen as the very moment where the organization was truly lost back then. It finally looks like they are regaining it, but it’s not there yet, and drafting Jones would have potential to lose the franchise again. 

It would also bring back another smaller flashback, one from more recently. That being them passing on Mahomes and Watson in 2017. The reason behind it was because they didn’t want to develop a rookie with a bad roster and risk stunting their growth. It’s a valid reason, but passing on those two still does leave a mark, especially after it was found out later that Shanahan only had eyes for Beathard in that draft, a guy he unnecessarily traded up for to grab in round 3 because it reminded him of Kirk Cousins. 

Passing on Fields and Lance would feel very similar to that. Shanahan would have, at that point, passed on way too many uber-talented QB prospects to get guys who remind him of Kirk Cousins. This is a reality that 49ers fans don’t want to live in. It’s a nightmare, as has many of their QB decisions over the last two decades.

49ers fans have every right to be weary of this given the screw ups of the past with passing on talented guys for less talented guys at the position. Quarterback has been the big problem for the team and their production in that area has been amongst the worst the league for a long time. I can certainly see why 49ers fans would want to barf if they take Jones. It would just feel like another terrible screw up that reminds them of the screw ups of the past. 

The Chiefs model represents a blueprint for the 49ers

Let’s lay out a hypothetical to start: Chiefs move up in the 2017 draft from 27 to 10, but instead of drafting Mahomes, they draft a quarterback who is very similar to incumbent Alex Smith (let’s just assume that guy was in this draft and was an option there with Mahomes and Watson). 

What do you think happens in this scenario? I think it’s safe to at least assume the Chiefs don’t become the league’s new dynasty. They might be alright, but at the end they’d just be spinning their wheels. Nothing changing. Just stagnant and not at the level they need to be. They watch Mahomes and/or Watson go elsewhere to have great careers and they wonder what could have been. 

This is a realistic comparison to what could happen if the 49ers take Mac Jones at 3 after the aggressive trade up. They could just be stuck on that second-level of the NFL. In contention almost always but never good enough to win it all despite everything else being good enough. And they could regret passing on Lance and/or Fields forever. 

The Chiefs showed in 2017 exactly how you have to do it. You have to make a move like this to get a guy that can change the game. A transcendent talent for your offense. A guy with real star power. You can’t be scared of being wrong because you are confident you won’t be and have all the tools and systems in place to make sure that doesn’t happen. You don’t do it to take the guy who is very similar to the guy you have. You don’t do it for the guy who is seen as remarkably normal that doesn’t have transcendent super powers for your offense. You need a guy who has all the things that can take you to that next level. That’s why you make this move in the first place. 

The Chiefs had conviction. They had a vision for Mahomes nobody else had. It was risky as can be, but they weren’t scared of that. They were confident, and they were also right on it, clearly. The Chiefs understood that fortune favors the bold in the NFL. That’s the mindset you need to have. 

I see a lot of similarities between the 2017 Chiefs and the 2021 49ers. The Chiefs went full dive into it with no regrets. Will the 49ers do the same? Do they have what it takes to look at the risk and hit it head on? It’s hard to imagine you make the aggressive move like this only to then become risk-adverse. The Chiefs provided a blueprint on how to do it, one the 49ers have referenced about this situation. Let’s see if that’s just talk or if there is action to back that up. 

To me, this situation would scream Trey Lance. It would require the same amount, if not more, conviction and vision to do all of this to draft Lance. His physical gifts and limitless potential are undeniable. It’s not a question he has them. The questions arise from being raw and needing time. The Chiefs gave Mahomes a year behind Smith and then went with him year two and haven’t looked back. Could be the same strategy if Lance is taken here. Get him ready behind Garoppolo (the 49ers public stance of wanting Garoppolo to remain in 2021 would fit here). 

If the 49ers want to follow the Chiefs model, this is the way to do it. There is no room in it to take Mac Jones. You probably take Lance in this case, but you can switch it up to your own liking and take Fields. It would have to be one of those two. Drafting Jones would be the exact opposite of the Chiefs model. 

NFL Mock Draft 3.0

We are now just a week until the draft. This will be my second to last update on this. I will have my last one the morning of draft day. 

Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson:

No need to spend much time on this one. Everyone knows it. It’s obvious. Let’s move on.

Jets: Zach Wilson, QB BYU:

With Darnold now traded, there is a lot of clarity for the Jets. They could throw a curveball here and choose Fields but I think it’ll be Wilson. I’m probably one of the only ones not totally penciling it in though. 

49ers: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State:

This would be a pretty major curveball. Everyone is expecting Jones or Fields here. Lance could be the pick. Shanahan openly loves Josh Allen and he got beat by Mahomes in the Super Bowl. From a developmental perspective, Lance is like those guys. Shanahan could want his version. 

Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida:

This guy is a stud. He’s the best non-QB in this draft given the star power and positional scarcity. He’s going to be scary. Falcons could trade down here but why not just take Pitts. He’s more valuable than whatever trade package they’d get. 

Bengals: JaMarr Chase, WR LSU

This is a match made in heaven. Joe Burrow threw to Chase in college and can re-unite with him in the pros. Don’t overthink Chase. He’s great and will easily step into the role AJ Green left behind. 

Broncos (trade with Dolphins): Justin Fields, QB Ohio State: 

The Dolphins went from 3 to 12 to 6. All that’s left is to move down to 9 to complete the movement across multiples of 3 (their second pick at 18 is also a multiple of 3). Broncos move up here to select their new franchise QB in Justin Fields. Elway will love him. 

Lions: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama: 

Smith will be a great replacement for Golladay. Excited to see this guy. Hopefully he eventually gets better than Goff at QB but it’s okay for now. 

Panthers: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon:

This guy falling is such a steal for the Panthers. He’s a top 3 player in this draft but was pushed down by QB and skill player needs. 

Dolphins (trade with Broncos): Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama:

After all the Dolphins movement, they still wind up with a really good player. Very good work by them. 

Cowboys: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina:

I love Horn. He’s my top CB in this class. He’s a monster with speed and height. He’s going to be an alpha corner in this class. Book it. Believe it or not, this is the first defensive player taken. 

Giants: Micah Parsons, LB Penn State:

The Giants getting Golladay gives them flexibility here to not need a WR. Good since none worthy of this pick are left. Micah Parsons is just what they need on defense though. Top 10 talent here pushed down the board. 

Eagles: Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern:

Eagles trading down doesn’t just tell me they are comfortable going with Hurts but also are comfortable passing on the top 4 playmakers on offense this draft. They need to get younger on the offensive line. Can here. 

Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech:

Chargers need offensive line help to protect Herbert. It’s a good class to get a tackle. 

Vikings: Patrick Surtain, CB Alabama:

Finally the CBs start to get picked. Surtain will help the Vikings secondary immensely.

Patriots: Mac Jones, QB Alabama:

The Patriots get a QB here in Jones. After talk of Jones being a top 5-10 pick, he winds up in a more fair spot here in the middle of round 1. I grade him as a later 1st rounder/early 2nd rounder but QB desperation is real. 

Cardinals: Greg Newsome II, CB Northwestern:

Cardinals need a corner to replace Peterson. They get one here. Newsome can easily go higher than people expect. He’s good. 

Raiders: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL USC:

Raiders decimated their own offensive line to rebuild it for some reason. They draft one here in round 1. They’ll likely draft multiple after this too. 

Dolphins: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah:

Dolphins could use some LB help. This is a good spot for Owusu-Koramoah to land. 

WFT: Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota:

This team needs more playmakers on the outside than McLaurin and randomness. Bateman is a great fit.

Bears: Christian Barmore, DT Alabama:

I don’t understand the love for Barmore but it exists. Bears defense gets richer.

Colts: Samuel Cosmi, OT Texas:

Colts are always churning out talent on the offensive line. Do it again here.

Titans: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia:

The best way to mask issues in the secondary is pass-rush. Titans get that here. 

Jets: Travis Etienne, RB Clemson:

Etienne is actually the first RB off the board. Jets need big help in this area. Etienne honestly fits their offense more than Harris. 

Steelers: Najee Harris, RB Alabama:

This isn’t what I would do but the Steelers have scouted the top two RBs heavily. They seem insanely interested. Their RB room isn’t very threatening at the moment. Maybe they get one here then worry about the offensive line later in a deep class in that area. 

Jaguars: Trevon Moehrig, S TCU:

Jaguars continue to try to rebuild the defense here. It’s not a great safety class but Moehrig stands out. First-round talent there.

Browns: Kwity Paye, EDGE Michigan:

Paye is a bit risky but his ceiling is very high. Browns could pair him with Myles Garrett and go nuts. 

Ravens: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU:

I’m not convinced the Ravens are done at WR after adding Watkins. Marshall benefited from Chase sitting out this past season. He could surprise a bit as a late 1st rounder. 

Saints: Jaman Davis, LB Kentucky:

Saints need a young linebacker. Davis is a great option here. 

Packers: Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa:

I like Collins a lot. Packers definitely need a linebacker. Another year where they don’t draft a skill player on offense for Rodgers. He’s gonna be so mad that he’s going to throw for 6000 yards and 63 TDs/3 INTs. Sorry rest of NFL. 

Bills: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech:

The Bills offense is great. The defense is usually what lets them down. Adding a corner would help a ton. 

Chiefs: Teven Jenkins, OT Oklahoma State:

Chiefs need a tackle clearly. This is a good spot for one. 

Bucs: Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn State:

Bucs defense gets better to compliment that offense. The defending champs get a bit better. 

Signs have emerged that point to Trey Lance going 3rd overall to the 49ers

Nobody really knows which of the QBs the 49ers will pick at 3, but it hasn’t stopped the chatter. We’ve heard Mac Jones and Justin Fields thrown around as the top options, but are there actually signs that point in the direction that it’s going to be Trey Lance? 

As was reported a few days ago from what we heard from private QB coach John Beck, he started working with Trey Lance a few weeks ago. This is significant as Beck is very close with Kyle Shanahan and the two talk often. The time in which Lance began working with Beck goes right along with the time the 49ers traded up. And Lance went to Beck under the request of Shanahan himself, which is a pretty big deal. Shanahan clearly has a vested interest in Lance to personally send him to Beck. 

The public reason for doing this is to get him ready for the second pro day the 49ers were setting up. While plausible, it’s strange to do all of that just to get a guy set up and ready for a pro day. That’s way too abnormal. Pro days aren’t going to sway the decision of a team enough to warrant taking a month to get ready for it. This is also a double edge sword in the way that if Shanahan sent him there for that reason and the pro days were really an American Idol-like audition, Shanahan rigged it in Lance’s favor anyways. 

And getting extra work in with Lance before drafting him would make sense. Couldn’t do it prior to moving up to 3 as they couldn’t guarantee they’d get him, but now they can certainly if he’s the guy. That could why he started working with Beck conveniently when the trade was made. Lance is very talented but is also very raw and a lot of him is a mystery. If they identified him as the favorite when they made the trade, getting him work with Beck to get him a head start on developing into a pro player for them as well as gathering more intel than other teams have on him would be the ideal situation. It makes a lot of sense to do this, especially for a prospect like Lance.

The last things are in the pro day itself, and not necessarily how he did, but rather some other things.

The first of which is this pro day was much more private and silent than the other two for Fields and Jones. There were only a select few pieces of media to come out of it and we don’t see the 49ers brass in attendance at all. It’s been rumored the 49ers asked to not be in any of the media posted and/or they asked for limited media to get out of it overall. No confirmation that was the case, but the evidence points to that being exactly it. For an organization that works in silence, this is a pretty big deal.

The second thing is a weird one but it’s pretty unique and interesting. The receiver working on this pro day catching Lance’s throws was none other than Jordan Matthews. Matthews had been on and off the 49ers a ton the last couple seasons. He knows the ins and outs of the Shanahan route concepts and all of that. Fields and Jones threw to guys who didn’t. Lance’s pro day was the closest simulation to a portion of a 49ers practice that you’ll get without it being an actual practice. NDSU is actually playing their season now so none of their receivers were available, but it’s still strange that out of all people, they tabbed Jordan Matthews to do it. It’s not nothing. 

The other thing is that it’s honestly interesting that Lance’s pro day was their last one. Pro days can be a trap sometimes as recency bias is a problem and getting swept up in them is easy. So it would make sense to do the one for the guy you actually want to take last in order to avoid that issue. There’d be no way of watching Fields or Jones after Lance and then start to overthink it by second-guessing. Could easily be a trap they were trying to avoid. 

There are a growing amount of signs that now point to Trey Lance being the pick and it’s very convincing, I won’t lie. There are still signs out there that could point to Fields though. I personally think it’s one of those two. You can make an argument for either, but right now it’s looking strong for Lance when you put it all together. 

Was the 49ers plan at QB always this?

The way the 49ers have handled the quarterback position in this regime has always been very curious to me. Something just really never felt right to me. 

Firstly, they passed on the position in 2017 in the draft besides Beathard in round 3. They had Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson to choose from at pick 2 but said no to all three. That’s a very strange thing to do for a new regime. Usually, the first thing to do in these situations is figure out the quarterback position. They did not. They went with Brian Hoyer and CJ Beathard. 

The thought about this at the time was Shanahan was preparing for a run at Kirk Cousins. He’s confirmed that’s true a couple of times. That, of course, ended shortly after when the 49ers acquired Jimmy Garoppolo. 

 Looking back, however, I think the plan was always supposed to be similar to how it is currently playing out. 

I seriously think the plan was the inverse of what teams usually do. Teams usually get the quarterback first then build the roster around him. But by the time the roster gets in its best shape, it’s time to give the QB top dollar, if they pan out. But that’s the other problem, a lot of these top rookie QBs are placed in such unfavorable spots where it is almost impossible to succeed. Some of the ones that have really succeeded were placed in favorable spots. Rodgers sitting behind Favre, Luck joining a Colts team that was really good but coming off a year where Manning was hurt which caused them to be bad and the Chiefs being a playoff contender when drafting Mahomes are the best examples recently. The bin of quarterbacks who went to crappy spots and failed is overfilled and it’s impossible to name them all. 

So the 49ers first chose to build a roster to get to the point where they can give a rookie QB the best chance possible to succeed. In the meantime, they were very fine with a veteran quarterback who can run the show decently enough to keep them afloat. Jimmy Garoppolo was the guy tasked with providing that and it’s probably why Shanahan didn’t split hairs between Garoppolo or Cousins. He probably saw both as capable of fulfilling that same role for him. 

But now, the roster is in a very good spot. It’s still one of the best rosters the NFL has to offer. It’s probably the best possible spot a rookie quarterback can land. An added benefit they didn’t know until recently is that the cap is going to go way up throughout the life of this QBs rookie contract. The 49ers will have so much flexibility to spend around the guy to improve this roster even further and keep cornerstone players in place. This is a situation where a rookie should be able to succeed, historically speaking. 

This is all a product of the 49ers different line of thinking when it comes to roster building, and it was only made possible by the fact this regime got a six-year period of time to get it together. This was a long game strategy from the beginning from the looks of it. I would not be surprised if this strategy is copied more and more in the future. It takes a lot of patience and it can go wrong if a solid set of plans and backup plans aren’t put in place. But who knows? Maybe this is the future strategy of the NFL. Brick by brick. 

John Beck might be the key to unlocking the secret of who the 49ers will take at 3

All the chatter still surrounds Mac Jones to the 49ers at pick 3. Who knows if it’ll end. None of that talk is real anyways. None of it coming from the organization. It’s speculation and conjecture because of a QB that Kyle Shanahan coached almost a decade ago. 

At this time of year, it’s more important to focus on actions and other things as the talk will always be total crap. In the case of this situation, there is something very interesting about it and it could give us a clue-in to who the 49ers will pick at 3. It starts with a guy named John Beck.

John Beck is a former backup QB for Washington when the Shanahan’s were there. He is very close with them and he now works as a QB Guru and has a camp that helps QBs. 

The interesting part about this is who he has worked with and/or is working with. He has been working with Zach Wilson and Justin Fields for a long time. And definitely not so coincidentally, Trey Lance started working with him just a few weeks ago (around the time of the 49ers trade up to 3). He was definitely asked to go work with Beck for a reason. It wasn’t random. Shanahan has also sent his QBs to him before. Garoppolo, Beathard and Mullens have all worked with Beck. He’s an extension of Shanahan basically. 

Recently, Beck shared that he is talking with Shanahan a lot about these guys, which is expected. He said, however, that Shanahan is asking a lot about Fields. But in any case, this amount of information grabbing is very big for the 49ers. This is a very unique connection that gives Shanahan another arm in this QB prospect market. It almost seems unfair.

This isn’t the first time the 49ers have used a deep connection to siphon info about guys that other teams don’t get. Far from it in fact. They have actually made a habit of this in this regime. Solomon Thomas and John Lynch took a class together at Stanford. Steve Young has deep BYU connections which helped with Fred Warner. Shanahan has good connections with Will Muschamp, which helped with Samuel and Kinlaw. He also has connections with Ryan Day, which helped with Bosa. John Lynch’s relationship with Herm Edwards helped him and Shanahan get info on Aiyuk that nobody else had. This happens regularly with this regime. This would appear to be another case of being ahead of the game with info nobody else has on these players. 

I think it’s ultra important to get that level of access to information on these guys too as it is very hard to gather that in this time with personal visits and all that other stuff not a thing this year again in this draft process. The 49ers used their connections to a huge advantage last year with both 1st round picks because of it. It appears they have an ace up their sleeve here too. 

Zach Wilson will likely be picked by the Jets but Fields and Lance will be there for the taking at pick 3. It seems more and more likely that the decision, if there is one, is between Justin Fields and Trey Lance. They have both been working with Beck in addition to the Shanahan personalized pro days each have going for them. Mac Jones, the guy everyone is heavily favoring for some reason, got neither of those things. 

This is way too big and way too much to be some elaborate smokescreen to hide that they are taking Jones (and an unsuccessful one if that’s the idea). I’d argue the Jones stuff is more likely to be a smokescreen, but I really don’t think that. I boil it down to speculation that grew legs in media circles. If you ignore the chatter and actually look at the signs, there is a growing amount that point us in the direction of Fields or Lance. Way too many signs for us to ignore. This sign might be the biggest one of all. This is significant information. 

49ers set to do specialized workouts with Justin Fields and Trey Lance

As we knew was coming, the 49ers have set up pro days with top QB prospects Justin Fields and Trey Lance. We knew these were coming and both were confirmed last week. Fields’ will take place April 14 and Lance’s April 19. 

What hasn’t been known until now is the nature of these pro days. They actually function a lot more like private workouts than pro days. Private workouts technically aren’t allowed so this is the closest we’ll get. 

By private workout, two big things stand out. First, there will be no media access to it so no media people, no coverage, nothing. Second, these workouts will actually be specifically for the 49ers. The workouts will be run by 49ers coaches and the players will be asked to do things specific to Shanahan’s offense. They run way deeper than an ordinary pro day. Also, doing work in secret is very 49ers and these appear like they’ll be pretty hidden from view. Just how the 49ers like it.

I actually think this I’d rather significant as it pertains to who they are taking. While many speculate the pick will be Jones, the actions suggest the opposite. The 49ers did not set up this kind of arrangement with Jones but did the other two. It seems weird to not have all three go through this if they are all in serious consideration. Instead, they went to Jones’ pro day and didn’t talk to anyone really and left as soon as possible. I’m willing to bet they’ll stick around awhile for these two other “pro days.” They’ll be gathering info and doing the things you really do when you are seriously considering a player. 

And this isn’t some elaborate smokescreen either nor is it simply due diligence. You don’t commit this kind of effort and time into stuff like this if you aren’t serious about getting the player. Now, they can’t get both Fields and Lance obviously, but it is definitely clear, at least to me, they are the favorites. For as much talk as there is about Jones, I honestly don’t think he’s as much in the actual conversation as people think. If he were, he’d get the same treatment here. He isn’t. Jones appears more than ever to be in the conversation only as a thing to entice the media. In actuality, it doesn’t appear he’s a serious consideration. 

It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that the 49ers appear to be spending the most time and energy on Fields. They sent some top people to Fields’ first pro day to look at him and then still set up a private pro day where they can send everyone they want to look at him too in what will be a Shanahan-based workout. Another sign that it’s leaning heavily towards being Justin Fields, in my opinion. They are also devoting a lot of time and energy for Lance. Far less for Jones. 

At this time of year, the talk will get out of control and there’ll be plenty of false information being spread about who is taking who, especially as it relates to quarterbacks. I think it’s more important to look at certain actions teams take and try to analyze and make a solid conclusion that way instead. 

The weird string of events that rose Mac Jones’ draft stock

When the college football season ended, Mac Jones was seen as a late 1st/early 2nd round prospect. I was so many mock drafts have him going 20 or lower, some even didn’t even have him going in round 1. What has happened since then? No games, the Senior Bowl and two pro days where he looked average, if I’m being honest. The only thing he’s done well is interviewing essentially.

But his draft stock has seen an ascension like I’ve never seen in the last few weeks. It’s natural for guys draft stock to move a bit based on information being dug into by watching film and stuff, but it’s very hard to believe that he went from being a fringe 1st rounder to being the second coming of Brady in a month that has top 5 potential. This rise in draft stock is unprecedented and it’s hard to imagine why. 

It’s even more curious how his draft stock seemed to really begin to move right after the 49ers move up to 3. Before then, his stock had risen a bit to maybe mid-1st rounder, with some stragglers thinking he could go top 10, but that was an unpopular opinion. His ceiling was 8 or 9 but most people disregarded that possibility.

I even saw many mock drafts by people with “inside information” put him past the 49ers at 12. Saw many have him at 15 to Patriots, 19 to Washington, 20 to Chicago or even 28 to the Saints. But now that the 49ers traded up to 3, a deal done without the knowledge of anyone besides the few involved until it was finalized, the same people with the “inside info” that had him going past the 49ers at 12 suddenly all think that’s who they are after at 3? How does that make any sense? If they knew who they were after, they’d have put him at 12 there prior. And again, literally not a soul knew about the trade until it happened but we are supposed to believe everyone suddenly knows the pick? Yeah right.

It also can’t go unnoticed that nobody was questioning Justin Fields as QB3 in the draft until after the trade. Todd McShay was quick to push him to QB5 in the draft and others have followed. All the random talk about him started then. The timing is not a coincidence. Someone, somewhere is trying to influence some decision-makers. 

This whole thing is just odd and fishy. The ascension of Mac Jones’ draft stock is unprecedented and the sudden fall of Fields’ and the timing of it all is super strange. There is definitely some weird stuff going on, which is likely being pushed by people and the media is being played like a fiddle with it, and as such, fans are also being played. We’ve seen weird stuff this time of year that don’t actually change anything on draft night, but this one is more extreme than any I’ve ever seen. We’ll never get an answer to why this happened but we’ll have to see how it actually plays out on draft night. 

49ers recent draft history suggests they won’t draft Mac Jones

The 49ers have been hit or miss in the draft this regime in four years. It’s not unnatural for that to occur as the draft can be a crapshoot. However, there have been signs of improvement the last two years. There is a reason for that, and it’s a big signal in my opinion that points to them not selecting Mac Jones. 

The first two years of their regime, in the early rounds of the draft, they went mostly with safe picks. The exception was Foster, but he’s a rural unique situation so we’ll exclude him from the conversation. Solomon Thomas was their first ever draft pick. He was seen as a guy who can be good but his ceiling wasn’t as high as others in the class. He was seen as a solid starter in the league but nobody saw him as a guy who had the makings of being super elite. He was a “safe” pick. When trying to just build a roster, that’s fine. Just get as many good players as possible then go from there. Makes sense. The problem was that he didn’t even hit his floor. They didn’t pick up his 5th year option after a not so good tenure in the Bay. 

In 2018, they selected Mike McGlinchey. Again, they passed on guys with more elite athleticism and traits for him because he was seen as “a solid NFL starter.” Again, fine for a rebuilding roster. He was another “safe” pick. The story of McGlinchey is he’s a starter in the league but he’s average at best. His 5th-year option is in question. Another guy that hasn’t hit his floor even. 

Both those drafts were filled with other more system guys with less risk like Pettis and Beathard. They also didn’t work out. Their big hits came in more risky guys with more elite traits like Fred Warner and George Kittle, arguably their two best players. 

Things really changed in 2019. The 49ers had an epiphany. They realized more elite traits could mean better players. They also put the roster in a place where they can absorb more potential risk. That year, they had to choose between the guy with more elite traits in Nick Bosa or the guy with less but is a bit safer in Quinnen Williams. They went with Bosa. Wound up being a great choice. Deebo Samuel in round 2 was a high-end trait guy too early in round 2. Another great choice. All their selections became more about guys with the better traits, not the safer choices.

This continued last year. Kinlaw was very raw and wasn’t a top 20 pick based on tape alone, but he was a freak physically and had elite traits. Same with Aiyuk. He had so many elite traits and they took him at the backend of round 1 when most thought they could easily take the safer WR with pick 13 (Jerry Jeudy). Aiyuk had a very good year 1 and Kinlaw has loads of potential and played well late last season. 

The safer picks they have made have mainly been busts while the riskier ones have been good to them. Weird how it works backwards of what you’d expect. I have two reasons why this change happened for them. One, they had a roster by 2019 that they felt better about just trying to compile better talent as opposed to just normal starters. The second is they learned from their draft mistakes the first two years. The two “safe” 1st rounders they took didn’t do what they hoped and some of the others didn’t either. Since changing the philosophy, their drafting has gotten more successful. 

If they stick to this philosophy that has worked, they will not draft Mac Jones. The words you often hear when talking about Jones is “safe pick, will be a fine starter in the NFL, high-floor guy.” This sounds familiar with much of the failed draft picks the 49ers had the first two years, in the early rounds anyways. I’d like to think the 49ers have learned from their mistakes and will not do them again. They now know more elite traits guys are the way. Mac Jones just wouldn’t fit into that new philosophy they’ve clearly obtained. It would feel like a move right out of 2017 for them. 

There is another note of caution here for the 49ers. The words “most pro-ready, safe, high-floor guy, solid starter” should be avoided when drafting a quarterback high. You can go throughout the last 10 years, most of the 1st-round QBs that have failed have those descriptions. Most recently, Trubisky got this label in 2017, didn’t work out. Rosen in 2018, didn’t work out. Daniel Jones in 2019, didn’t work out, at least to this point (Jones might still have a chance). The guys that have worked were the guys who people said needed work but their traits were elite. Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Jackson and Murray are top QBs in the league. Mayfield, Darnold and Haskins are outliers in this. But the history shows that “safe” picks actually don’t work as well as “risky” picks (maybe we need to re-think how we categorize this). Falling into this misconception is a pretty bad mistake that usually costs people their jobs. 

The 49ers have been a very smart organization under this regime. I can’t imagine they will fall into this trap of “safe” QBs while also abandoning the draft philosophy they’ve built for two years, to select Mac Jones. It just doesn’t fit in with everything else.