The 49ers should keep Jimmy Garoppolo....... for now

 After trading for the 3rd overall pick with the obvious intention of taking a quarterback, the 49ers have sent the signal to Jimmy Garoppolo that he isn’t the answer. They will move on. 

The thing that is not known is when they’ll move on. The 49ers public stance is that they intend on keep Garoppolo in 2021 and then transition to the guy they draft this year in 2022. It could be true or it could be a bluff and posturing. Who knows. The question is whether or not this would be a good move. Let’s examine.

From a financial standpoint, it’s neutral. They would save $24M this year and $25M for next year by trading him and only incur a dead cap hit of $2.8M. While it is significant savings, the 49ers aren’t in a cap crunch and free agency is basically over so no big signings are coming. They have way more than enough cap room to operate and seem to have also budgeted with the intention of having Jimmy Garoppolo and the rookie around. They signed some backloaded deals that right now appear they didn’t need make as much that way. Next year, the cap is projected to go way up and moving on from Jimmy G would save them $25M with an only $1.4M cap charge. It’s one of the best pay-as-you-go contracts in the league at the moment. They can move off him any time with very little penalty. No rush to do so. 

The part where it could get tricky is within the situation itself. The 49ers clearly just told Jimmy he’s not it but they might still want him to stay and contribute. It’s a weird spot. Though I’m actually not as concerned about it as I was initially.There are reasons for this.

One being that I trust that Lynch and Shanahan have had some good conversations with him throughout this to defuse the situation. I also think this could light a fire under Garoppolo. He’s pretty much auditioning for his next team if he stays on the 49ers in 2021. He’ll show up and want to play well. This would be similar to how Rodgers acted when Love was drafted. He just said “okay I’ll show you.” The 49ers brass knows Jimmy personally and they probably have a key into how they think he’d react to this. If they expect he’ll be a total jerk and cause issues, they’ll trade him. I don’t think they expect that. The 49ers are pretty close-knit and honest with each other. I think that culture that has been built really helps here. It’s not like the Eagles where they just blind-sighted Wentz by selecting Hurts and made him mad. Garoppolo got notice before the trade was even reported and they’ve always gone to him to be honest about the fact they are considering other QBs. It’s been a very transparent process. 

I also don’t expect Jimmy Garoppolo will treat the rookie badly. Rodgers didn’t treat Love badly despite his feelings. Garoppolo also played a similar role this rookie will for the Patriots when he was under Brady. Jimmy Garoppolo will understand what that rookie is going through and that it’s not personal. It’s been rumored that Brady wanted nothing to do with Garoppolo. I think Garoppolo would want to treat the rookie better than he was treated as a young player. I actually think Garoppolo could be a valuable asset to the transition process. 

I am actually thinking the 49ers will keep Garoppolo unless they are offered a deal they can’t refuse (a 1st round pick). If they get that deal, they’ll do it and find a different veteran QB to ease the transition process. They won’t go in with just the rookie and Rosen that is for certain. But if they don’t, I think they’ll just keep Garoppolo. They already budgeted for it. It appears to be the intent. They’ll hope he balls out and trade him for a 1st next year. If not, they’ll just cut him or trade him for whatever they can get. It’s a low-risk situation for the 49ers when you really think about it. 

Their intent to keep Garoppolo also could key us in on what QBs they are looking into at pick 3. Justin Fields and Trey Lance are often seen as guys who could benefit from sitting a year. Shanahan’s offense is tough to grasp. For a rookie to do that and also acclimate to the NFL while they are also still seen as raw from a talent perspective lends itself to the thought they could sit for a year and just absorb everything while Garoppolo, who has been in the system three plus years, is their best option for winning right now. It’s a good way for them to hedge their bets on the present and future . It’s a little awkward in some ways, but I think it’s a pretty good plan overall. Probably the best one they can go with at the moment. 

Which QB should the 49ers take in the draft?

 The 49ers traded up to the number 3 overall pick in next month’s NFL draft. This move obviously signals that they plan to take a quarterback. In this QB class, there are some great options in what is seen as the best QB draft in a long time. 

In many eyes, there are three options the 49ers have with that pick. Those being Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones. A fourth option in Zach Wilson is possible but not likely. I will look into him too just in case. The only one truly not in play is Trevor Lawrence. I’m going to look into the the four and consider their pros and cons and how well they’d fit the 49ers. Then after it all, I’ll reveal which one I think they ultimately take. 

BYU QB Zach Wilson:

This one is super unlikely unless the Jets either pass on him or the 49ers move up one more spot with the Jets to select him. Shanahan has long liked him it seems so it’s possible he’s a guy they want but they also know trading up to 3 isn’t enough to get him so maybe he’s not the guy they are eyeing. 

He’s very talented though. He has the best pure arm talent in this class in my opinion. He can make some impossible throws, similar to Mahomes. He’s not as talented as Mahomes (who is), but he’s also not as raw. He’d start right away in the NFL unlike Mahomes. 

The knock on him is the level of competition he faced in college. I don’t think that’s a problem. You scout the players, not the teams. Plenty of players have come from smaller schools that don’t face high level competition and they do great in the NFL. The last big BYU QB worked out fine I’d say (Steve Young). 

If by some miracle he’d fall to 3, the 49ers would take him I’m sure. I don’t see that scenario playing out. 

Ohio State QB Justin Fields:

Justin Fields is definitely the guy on this list with the most notoriety. A former top HS recruit that went to Georgia before transferring after theft decided to give the reigns to Jake Fromm (bad mistake). He wound up at Ohio State and tore it up. He even willed his team to a championship this past season despite an awful rib injury suffered against Clemson in the semifinals. 

I love Fields. There are reasons for this. He runs really fast and throws a beautiful ball that is highly accurate to all parts of the field. He can make all the plays scripted and unscripted. Reminds me so much of Watson. 

It’s not all good for him though. He certainly has flaws (every player does). His inability to read defenses well is a big weak point. He also can occasionally hold the ball too long. He also has a very slow release that is a windup and whip type. Shanahan might not like that considering he has always valued the quick passing game and guys who have a quick release. He’s probably also the least ready out of the group of top 5 guys in this class. Maybe that’s okay for the 49ers, maybe it isn’t. 

North Dakota State QB Trey Lance:

Lance is interesting since his experience of starting at the college level is the least out of these guys. His season not really happening this year really hurt. This was a guy that was seen as possibly the top projected pick in this draft a year ago. Obviously things changed and him not playing this season was a big part of it. 

But at 20 years old, I’m very impressed with him. He already runs pro-level concepts at his age and even called his own protections in college. He has very high football IQ and can absorb info quickly and make it happen. His feel for play action and bootlegs is also pro-level. His arm is really good to boot. He can make the tough throws you need. He also has the ability to run about as well as Lamar Jackson. He has Josh Allen’s arm with Lamar Jackson’s legs in my opinion. He’s a monster. There is nobody quite like him in the NFL currently. 

He’s very gifted physically and athletically. At his age and with his relative lack of experience, many would say he’s not a day 1 starter. I actually kind of disagree. As I said, he does pro-level things already despite only turning 21 in May. His ability to absorb and work through information quickly means he can learn an NFL offense very quickly. Much quicker than most anyone else could. The notion that he is raw and might need a year or two might be somewhat off-base. These abilities he possesses might give Shanahan a chance to start him right away, despite his complex offense that usually would take longer to get. 

Alabama QB Mac Jones:

Mac Jones had an incredible season at Alabama. His meteoric rise lands him a good chance to be a top 10 pick. 

Despite not being particularly athletic, he throws a good ball that is accurate and always on time. The rhythm in his game and his crisp arm reminds many of Brady. The difference between him and Brady, at least to me, is that Jones was kind of elevated by having an insanely good supporting cast around him at Alabama. Great offensive line, great playmakers. He had it all. The issue many have with him is whether or not he’s able to elevate others, which is kind of what a QB needs to do these days. 

I personally do not believe the 49ers made the move up for Jones. He’s a game manager type that can run in the system. Sounds like a typical Shanahan type like Ryan, Schaub, Cousins and Garoppolo but I don’t think you move up this high for another one. He has had those types. If he wanted it again, he’d find one another way or stick with Garoppolo. Also important to note that Sean McVay, who comes from the same coaching tree, just moved on from Goff, who is very similar to Jones as well. I think Shanahan wants more from the position than what Jones provides. 

Now, who do I think the 49ers pick? I think it’s Lance. It makes the most sense. He’s a big, physical QB and Shanahan likes that type. His feel for play action and bootlegs is just what the offense calls for. His reads of defenses and pre-snap knowledge is also huge in the offense. His quick release and accuracy of his throws is something Shanahan really desires. His football smarts and ability to learn and do quickly is just what Shanahan wants in a guy for his complex offense too. Shanahan expects a ton from his QBs in that regard. Lance can definitely handle it. Lance can do the things that Shanahan wants in his offense but also provide a lot extra that could take the offense to new heights. The offense wouldn’t be re-made for him. Just enhanced. He checks all the boxes for the 49ers. 

The 49ers should seriously consider Sam Darnold

 The 49ers are reportedly one of the teams that would be the most interested in Jets QB Sam Darnold. It appears the Jets will move on from him as they are likely to take a QB in the NFL draft with the 2nd pick. 

Darnold was drafted 3rd overall in the 2018 NFL draft and was expected to be their QB for a long time. It didn’t work out in New York and a fresh start will be welcomed for both sides.

I still see a lot of potential in Darnold though. He was my number 1 rated QB in the 2018 draft. I’m a big fan of him. Love the talent and the tools he possesses. His ceiling is high. The reasons it didn’t show up in New York are pretty obvious. 

Firstly, the coaching that they had was bad. Played a year with Todd Bowles and that staff and it was bad but that staff wasn’t good. Then played two years in Gase’s offense. His offenses are best known for sapping production from its players. The Jets just haven’t had good coaching recently. 

Next is the roster. You look up and down the roster the last three years, and you see a barren wasteland. A roster devoid of a lot of talent. The best weapon of offense Darnold has had in his career is Jamison Crowder. Nothing against Crowder but he just doesn’t stack up against most team’s top WRs. The RB room hasn’t been great as Bell wasn’t great for them and as much as I love Gore, if he’s your top RB right now, things have gone seriously wrong. Don’t even get me started on the poor offensive line and the lack of any real TE talent on the roster. The defense didn’t help anything either for the most part. 

Then there’s the pressure of playing in New York. It’s a real thing and is documented well by players that have entered and left New York in sports. It’s just different. Not all players thrive in it. It’s easy to crumble. 

Sam Darnold was quite clearly in a very losing situation in New York. About the worst situation a player, much less a young one, can be thrown into. I’m not certain any QB could thrive, much less survive, in that situation. 

Sam Darnold deserves to escape the Jets and will likely get it. I would implore the 49ers to seriously look into it.

I think he could definitely thrive in Shanahan’s system, with a much better roster, a better culture and an easier environment to play in. He still has all the talent and tools to succeed and I can’t think of a better guy to make it work than Shanahan. He turned a far less talented Garoppolo into a QB that was at one point at least on the outskirts of the top 10 QB conversation multiple times. I’d love to see what he could do with a big talent like Darnold. The sky could be the limit. 

Then there is the flexibility angle for the 49ers. Darnold would only cost the 49ers $5M in 2021. Moving off Garoppolo and getting Darnold would save them about $20M against the cap, which would be major any year, but especially this year. Could sign a pretty good player or two at that price or just bring back their own FAs and sign extensions. 

Darnold would maybe only cost a 2nd round pick at most to acquire, possibly only a 3rd. That’s a very low cost when considering the alternatives, which include trading everything they own for Watson or trading serious draft capital to trade up for a QB in the draft. This would give them the flexibility to use their pick at 12 however they choose without the pressure of taking a QB there. Or they could trade down to acquire more draft capital if they choose. One philosophy they’ve held as an organization, and Shanahan has said this, is that they like flexibility going into the draft and don’t love the pressure of having one glaring need in the draft. 

Now, I mentioned those alternatives earlier and would like to go back to that. Watson is certainly better than Darnold but I don’t know if the 49ers are prepared to part with three 1sts and Warner or Bosa plus maybe more to acquire him. The Watson saga might also last until next offseason (not likely but possible). That waiting game is risky. 

As for rookies, I think Darnold is a better gamble than a rookie. He’s been in the league three years so knows what it takes in the NFL. The learning curve won’t be as great. He’d be the starter for the 49ers immediately. He can much easier acclimate to a new team than a rookie acclimating to NFL life and then having to perform for a SB contender. Darnold is just a better bet for a team like the 49ers due to immediacy. His floor is probably higher too simply because we have probably already seen his worst. These rookies are total question marks. Darnold also, at least in my opinion, has just as high a ceiling as any of the QBs in the draft. Easy to forget how young and talented he is after what he’s been through with the Jets. Still only going to be 24 and was a top 5 pick not too long ago. 

The talent hasn’t gone away for Darnold. It’s just locked up, waiting for someone to unlock it. Shanahan could be the key that unlocks it. This is a move the 49ers should strongly consider making for so many reasons. It makes a ton of sense for them.