On Monday evening, the San Francisco 49ers made a major trade, acquiring Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from the New England Patriots for a 2nd round draft choice. Garoppolo, who turns 26 in just a couple days as I am writing this, was a second round draft choice (62nd overall) by the Patriots in 2014. He spent most of his time as a backup to the legendary Tom Brady, but he has a few starts under his belt, primarily in 2016 when Brady was suspended.
While Garoppolo is a free agent at year's end, the 49ers will try to give him an extension at some point. And if they cannot get an immediate extension done, they will franchise tag him and try to work something out later. Simply put, he is seen as the franchise QB moving forward. With that, there are many dominoes that fall and the whole plan that people foresaw the 49ers having is now changed a bit. So here are some implications that arise now due to this sudden and surprising trade.
1) No Kirk Cousins in SF:
Everyone and their mothers thought Kirk Cousins was going to wind up in San Francisco. His haste to get out of D.C (who doesn't want to leave there these days), his connections with Shanahan, and the fact that the 49ers could easily pay him what he wants with all the cap space they will have. It was a match made in heaven, until it wasn't. 49ers clearly did not want to deal with that Merry Go Round in D.C that is revolving around Dan Snyder continually tagging Kirk Cousins to death. The prospect of Dan Snyder tagging Cousins at an astronomical price of $30M+ is not out of the question given Snyder's personality and his continued pursuit of screwing everyone else over, especially if their last name is Shanahan. 49ers weren't about to do that dance with the Redskins and who can blame them. I'm so sorry, Kirk, but I hope you didn't buy your house in the Bay Area yet.
2) 2018 QB draft class falling apart:
The Quarterback class in 2018 was set to be historic. Well, this was until every QB with a pulse in this class began to have problems. The chosen one himself Sam Darnold decided to become human, Josh Rosen turned into a pumpkin after a few games, Josh Allen fell apart, and Lamar Jackson is not a QB in the NFL if I've ever seen one. Darnold and Allen may stay in school to boot as well. So the Big 12s top two QBs Mason Rudolph and Baker Mayfield may be the best bet at that position in this draft, and neither guy are good enough for the 49ers to take in the top 3, which will likely be their draft position. 49ers clearly didn't feel compelled by these options and decided to go with someone at least a bit more proven. Again, who can blame them. Now, they can use their top pick in the next draft to get someone else (who is ready for Saquon Barkley in red & gold).
3) More money to spend elsewhere:
The 49ers are set to have well over $100M In cap space in the offseason. This is an astronomical amount for those who do not know. As I mentioned before, Kirk Cousins was likely the guy the 49ers wanted initially, but then changed course for reasons I mentioned above. Now, had they signed Cousins, if he even reached unrestricted free agency, he would have likely gotten the biggest contract in NFL history as quality starting QBs do not reach the open market that often. This contract would have been upwards to $30M a season w/ a high amount of guarantees and probably a hefty signing bonus. Instead, they will go with Garoppolo, who will cost far less, either in an extension or with the first-year franchise tag. 49ers will be able to use the money saved not winning a bidding war (let's be honest, with their cap space they would have easily won a bidding war for Cousins) to spend to help in other areas, and the 49ers need help in basically every area.
The Jimmy Garoppolo trade is a big one for the 49ers. They have found their QB and have suddenly answered the biggest question people have had about them. 49ers getting Garoppolo effectively changes a lot of things they can do. The move gives them a lot of flexibility but also has the potential to shape some other organizations in a ripple effect.
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Tuesday, October 31, 2017
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
Changing the Wildcard game format
As we embark on the sixth set of Wildcard games in the MLB, we will see two teams' miraculous seasons come to a screeching halt as losing one game will cost them their entire body of work. That precise idea right there has come under much scrutiny lately. The concept ofone game and one game alone ending end a team's successful season in almost a snap of the fingers like that makes a lot of people upset and gives them reasons for wanting something better to be put in place. While the wildcard game still has a mystique to it that people love because of the intense drama and immediate gratification it brings, there are also people, at the same time, that think it simply doesn't work, regardless of how fun it is. I'm going to offer up a few alternatives to the singular wildcard game and let you decide if they are better or worse than the current system.
Alternative 1: Best-Of-3 series
This is by far the most popular alternative people bring up. It's a seemingly easy alternative, and most of the baseball calendar includes 3-game series' in one ballpark so why not? I mean, it makes sense. If you want to decide who is better then just do it like you do all year, essentially. The problem here though might be time. To have a best-of-3, you're going to need three days. You'd have to start the series' on Tuesday since the Monday after regular season ends is reserved for possible tiebreaker games, as well as just a nice day off. This means the division series probably wouldn't start until that following Saturday or Sunday, Friday at the absolute earliest if neither series goes 3 games (and this is the MLB playoffs we are talking about of course one will go the distance). This is simply just way too long to ask a division champ to sit and wait. Also, the MLB already pushes it on the brink of November or into November, so extending even two additional days may not go over well. The only way this could work is to compress it into a two-day series with a double header on one of the days. This is logistically plausible, but there'd have to be some modifications to the traditional best-of-3 format we often think about.
Alternative 2: KBO Style
The KBO (Korean Baseball Organization) often has some whacky rules, and this system I am about to present is very much so, but it may just be crazy enough to work. The system is that it is 2-game series, with the home team needing to win 1 game to move on and the road team having to win twice to move on. What is good about this is it can be completed in maximum two days, and that is huge. Another key thing is it gives the home team a more decided advantage that they deserve for being WC1 (first wildcard team). Home-field advantage means less in baseball than a lot of other sports however, so it still balances out a bit. Moreover, the road teams winning wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility at all still; I mean, the road team is 7-3 in the WC game format after all. The home team's advantage would not be too large that it is insurmountable but still large enough that it feels like they actually earned an advantage. The disadvantage, though, is that could you imagine the outrage from people if the WC2 team won game 1 but lost game 2 to lose the series, despite it being a 1-1 series? People might feel cheated if that were to occur, and that's understandable for sure.
Alternative 3: Winner of WC2 vs WC3 plays WC1
This is a wild idea, way in the depths of the imagination. Hear it out anyways, if for nothing else but a laugh even. Say the MLB added an additional WC team to the mix (already off to a crazy start). Now, on day one of this, WC3 faces off against WC2 (WC2 at home). The winner of this advances into day 2 to play against WC1 (WC1 at home). This would create a lot of drama and would basically give us four wildcard games instead of two. That is the beauty of this. Another thing to like is, again, it can be completed in 2 days. The drawback could be, however, that the winner of WC2 vs WC3 gain added momentum from winning a game going into matchup with WC1. However, WC1 would have their best pitcher ready and everyone fully rested going up against a team not well-rested that used their best pitcher already and had to travel (possibly travel twice if it's WC3), so it may balance out a bit in that way. If nothing else, this would give the fans even more do-or-die drama to love. It is fun to think about how crazy this system would be though.
Alternative 4: Three team round robin
This one is another outlandish one, but again, hear it out. What if we had a 2-day, 3-team round robin at a neutral site to decide the last two teams in the playoff field in each league. This series would include the two wildcard teams and the division winner with the worst record. Each team would play just 2 games over 2 days, and the best two records on those games move on and the other one is left out. The idea behind this would be to throw these teams into the ring and see who comes out on top of the pile. The thing to like, again is that it can be completed in two days. Another thing is it would let these teams see show who is better in a different sort of way. The drawbacks would be that two games each may not be enough to decide a round robin and throwing a division champion into this mix would unfair.
Note: This round robin could work with a WC3 added as well, but only one of the three would move on instead of two.
Are either of these alternatives better than the current one? Well, that is going to vary from person to person. Some people like the idea of changing the wildcard format, some don't and some would be open to it if an alternative they liked came by. The beauty of this is that there are really no right or wrong answers because each format suggested have their strengths and their weaknesses, and the current system is like that too. Because of this, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to definitively say what the absolute correct format is or should be, but it is certainly fun to consider all the different possibilities there are out there.
Are either of these alternatives better than the current one? Well, that is going to vary from person to person. Some people like the idea of changing the wildcard format, some don't and some would be open to it if an alternative they liked came by. The beauty of this is that there are really no right or wrong answers because each format suggested have their strengths and their weaknesses, and the current system is like that too. Because of this, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to definitively say what the absolute correct format is or should be, but it is certainly fun to consider all the different possibilities there are out there.
Tuesday, August 15, 2017
Options for the Pirates if Gregory Polanco goes on the disabled list
Pirates right fielder Gregory Polanco suffered yet another injury to his hamstring this weekend in Toronto. And by the looks of it, he will likely hit the disabled list for the third time this season. It has been reported by some outlets that Gregory Polanco isn't only seriously injured, but he was also seen hugging teammates after sunday's contest, speculated to mean that he will not make the trip to Milwaukee with the team which could prelude a DL stint. How long Polanco will be out is still up in the air, but depending on how long it is expected to be could influence how the Pirates handle filling the void. Here, I will discuss some of the potential ways to fill the void depending on how things shake out.
1) Stick with what is on the roster:
It is very plausible, almost likely, that the Pirates stick with what is currently on their roster. The Pirates have 4 guys, good or not, that can play in the outfield. These guys being John Jaso, Jose Osuna, Adam Frazier, and the newly acquired Sean Rodriguez. The Pirates could certainly see the bevy of options they possess and just choose to stick with it. I mean, they did just that when Marte was out during his suspension and when Polanco was hurt the previous two times, and that was before they acquired another option in Sean Rodriguez. They could also play Harrison in the outfield a bit and show off some Frazier or Rodriguez at 2nd base, or even get Moroff some reps at 2nd base as well.
2) Get help from AAA:
There are a couple outfielders in AAA that could help in some sort of capacity. While Meadows is still rehabbing on his way to getting back to AAA, he could be an option upon returning, but I can't envision that. This leaves Danny Ortiz, Chris Bostick, and Jordan Luplow. Danny Ortiz is a career minor leaguer, so it shouldn't be him. Bostick is intriguing, but like all the other extra outfield options they currently have on their major league roster, he is an infielder by nature. This leaves us with Jordan Luplow. Luplow, a guy who has barely been in AAA a month, has been dominating at every level the last few seasons, including making AAA look like the little leagues. He was called up to the majors for a few games just a couple weeks, and while he went 0-9, he did not look overmatched. While he may not be ready, maybe the Pirates think he is developed enough to be given a look. However, in my opinion, if he will get called up, I think he has to be given the opportunity to play everyday. He can't be sitting on the bench five times a week not getting many at bats. That is no good for him. They would have to let the guy play more often than not, and I cannot see the Pirates giving him a majority of at bats over the guys they have right now.
3) Find external help:
One of the things that has killed the Pirates this season is not having a true 4th outfielder. As I said before, they have an array of options, but many of them are infielders by nature and are guys that don't prioritize playing outfield. With the Marte suspension, the Polanco injuries, and everything seemingly going wrong with Meadows, the gaping hole of no other true outfielder option is huge, and with Polanco hurt again, we see that gaping hole once again. If the Pirates, who are 4.5 games back of division lead as I am writing this, really believe they have a chance at this thing, maybe they find a way to fortify their roster even more by acquiring an outfielder to assist with Polanco out and make the bench stronger when/if he gets back. This would also provide cover if the Pirates would make the playoffs and Marte would be ineligible at that juncture. Given the way the position player market is, maybe the Pirates can find something that fits.
In my estimation, I can definitely see them just sticking with what they have. The reason for this is because, through everything that has happened this season, that is precisely what they have done. I cannot envision a sudden change in direction like that unless it is said that Polanco is out for the season, and even then the realistic chances this team wins the division are slim at best. It is hard to prepare for the postseason or winning a division when a team is currently below .500, 4 games back, and in fourth place. If Pirates were in 1st place or 2nd place and only 1 or 2 games back, it would become much easier to make that move. Truth is that another outfielder to replace what they currently have or to just fill-in for a bit will not make much of an impact at all. I think it is a much safer bet for the Pirates to stick with what they have and/or call up the young talent from AAA and let them show themselves off.
1) Stick with what is on the roster:
It is very plausible, almost likely, that the Pirates stick with what is currently on their roster. The Pirates have 4 guys, good or not, that can play in the outfield. These guys being John Jaso, Jose Osuna, Adam Frazier, and the newly acquired Sean Rodriguez. The Pirates could certainly see the bevy of options they possess and just choose to stick with it. I mean, they did just that when Marte was out during his suspension and when Polanco was hurt the previous two times, and that was before they acquired another option in Sean Rodriguez. They could also play Harrison in the outfield a bit and show off some Frazier or Rodriguez at 2nd base, or even get Moroff some reps at 2nd base as well.
2) Get help from AAA:
There are a couple outfielders in AAA that could help in some sort of capacity. While Meadows is still rehabbing on his way to getting back to AAA, he could be an option upon returning, but I can't envision that. This leaves Danny Ortiz, Chris Bostick, and Jordan Luplow. Danny Ortiz is a career minor leaguer, so it shouldn't be him. Bostick is intriguing, but like all the other extra outfield options they currently have on their major league roster, he is an infielder by nature. This leaves us with Jordan Luplow. Luplow, a guy who has barely been in AAA a month, has been dominating at every level the last few seasons, including making AAA look like the little leagues. He was called up to the majors for a few games just a couple weeks, and while he went 0-9, he did not look overmatched. While he may not be ready, maybe the Pirates think he is developed enough to be given a look. However, in my opinion, if he will get called up, I think he has to be given the opportunity to play everyday. He can't be sitting on the bench five times a week not getting many at bats. That is no good for him. They would have to let the guy play more often than not, and I cannot see the Pirates giving him a majority of at bats over the guys they have right now.
3) Find external help:
One of the things that has killed the Pirates this season is not having a true 4th outfielder. As I said before, they have an array of options, but many of them are infielders by nature and are guys that don't prioritize playing outfield. With the Marte suspension, the Polanco injuries, and everything seemingly going wrong with Meadows, the gaping hole of no other true outfielder option is huge, and with Polanco hurt again, we see that gaping hole once again. If the Pirates, who are 4.5 games back of division lead as I am writing this, really believe they have a chance at this thing, maybe they find a way to fortify their roster even more by acquiring an outfielder to assist with Polanco out and make the bench stronger when/if he gets back. This would also provide cover if the Pirates would make the playoffs and Marte would be ineligible at that juncture. Given the way the position player market is, maybe the Pirates can find something that fits.
In my estimation, I can definitely see them just sticking with what they have. The reason for this is because, through everything that has happened this season, that is precisely what they have done. I cannot envision a sudden change in direction like that unless it is said that Polanco is out for the season, and even then the realistic chances this team wins the division are slim at best. It is hard to prepare for the postseason or winning a division when a team is currently below .500, 4 games back, and in fourth place. If Pirates were in 1st place or 2nd place and only 1 or 2 games back, it would become much easier to make that move. Truth is that another outfielder to replace what they currently have or to just fill-in for a bit will not make much of an impact at all. I think it is a much safer bet for the Pirates to stick with what they have and/or call up the young talent from AAA and let them show themselves off.
Saturday, August 5, 2017
Pirates acquire George Kontos
Pirates continue their flurry of activity on the revocable waiver wire, acquiring George Kontos off the Giants. Pirates claimed him and Giants awarded him to the Pirates for nothing except to pay his salary, which isn't a lot.
Kontos, 32, has had a solid career. Not great but gets the job done. This year, in particular, however, he's added something he didn't have before, and that is strikeouts. Normally a 6-7 K/9 guy, Kontos has raised that number to 9.6 this year, and the walks have stayed about the same as his career would indicate. He is controlled for 2 more years after this via arbitration.
This could be a sneaky good pickup for the Pirates, who have a knack for finding quality bullpen arms in the unlikeliest of places. Kontos has put up steady and reliable numbers throughout his career. The uptick in strikeouts could be a big thing to tap into. We'll see what Searage can do with him.
Pirates acquire Sean Rodriguez
Pirates have made an August trade, acquiring IF/OF Sean Rodriguez from the Braves in exchange for Connor Joe. The trade came after Sean Rodriguez was placed on revocable waivers and claimed by the Pirates, a risky move.
We should all be familiar with Rodriguez. He dawned a Pirates uniform in 2015 and 2016. He had a particularly good year in 2016, boasting a strong .270/.349/.510 slash line with 18 HRs and a wRC+ of 129. This was strong enough for him to earn a 2 year deal with the Braves. Pirates were reportedly trying to sign him and trade Harrison this offseason. He hasn't played much this season after getting in a car accident in the winter, but he's just getting back into the groove of things. Sean Rodriguez will likely slide into a utility role with the Pirates, much like he did before and will be allowed to face lefties a bunch as he mashes them.
Connor Joe, a former comp pick after the first round, hasn't quite stuck. He's learned a multitude of different positions and hasn't been able to find his footing. He was depth in the Pirates system, and both teams hope he can blossom with a change of scenery and new coaching that could be just right for him.
For both teams, this trade makes sense. Pirates needed some help on the bench, and the emergence of Camargo for Atlanta, along with Freeman playing some third base because of Matt Adams, made Rodriguez expendable. Braves get a prospect they can work with a bit and figure out something nobody else could. Both teams got what they wanted out of this deal, and it seems like a fair deal for both sides.
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
Pirates need to get out of the middle
The MLB non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone. The Pirates basically just spun their tires but got nowhere, trading Tony Watson for 2 Single-A players then acquiring 40-year old Joaquin Benoit, a free agent as season's end just like Watson, for almost no reason. The strategy was very odd as they did nothing to help the club compete with the top dogs in the league now but also nothing to improve their chances in 2018 and 2019 when McCutchen, Cole, Nova, Cervelli, Mercer, etc are still around, which seems to represent their best shot at obtaining October glory. The Pirates made two moves that accomplished neither thing they needed to do. They basically just re-arranged the furniture in the room.
Let's start here with this: The clock is starting to run out on Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole's times in Pittsburgh, two guys that have been integral to the team's success and they are rare talents the Pirates won't just consistently produce from the farm. No, those two are special, especially one of the Pirates all-time greats in Andrew McCutchen. In addition to this, the Pirates have some additional talents as well that are special to compliment the big two. Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Felipe Rivero, Jameson Taillon, and Josh Bell all are great talents that just don't come around often, especially not all at once. Pirates also have a great bit of veterans that are around that they brought in from the outside such as Cervelli, Freese, and Nova. All mixed together, a great core has been established. However, it's not enough to compete for big-time in October. Additionally, for some of these guys, there's not much time left. Between the years of 2018 and 2019, the Pirates stand to lose Mercer, McCutchen, Cole, Nova, Freese, Cervelli, etc. Harrison follows suit in 2020. No matter how good the farm system may be (The Pirates farm system in particular is very good but not top echelon special), it's hard to replace all that walking out the door, even for big market teams let alone small markets.
What I am trying to pick at here is that the best chance of the Pirates reaching that October glory everyone dreams of is by doing it while these guys are here because who knows what's coming up after this. You can dream about the next core that's currently in Single A or AA, but it's hard to imagine them being better than the guys currently in the core now. The height of the Pirates farm system was a few years ago, and we are seeing the results of it now. The Pirates farm system now does not have the same talent it did when it was filled with names like Cole, Marte, Taillon, Bell, Glasnow, Polanco, and others who have made it. That was top echelon talent in the farm and to expect that from the core of 4-5 years from now is dreaming too heavy, in my opinion.
I hate to be one to talk about windows because I don't like the term much, but I'll use it for lack of a better term. The Pirates "window" inches closed after McCutchen's departure in 2018, and slams shut when Cole and others follow. It's simply too much to lose that a small market team cannot get back in free agency and no farm system in the league is equipped to handle it either.
For this reason, the Pirates can ill-afford to remain caught in the middle like they have been the last two years where they greet the fans with enough to stick around and be "competitive" but not enough to seize an opportunity while they have an insanely talented core in place. By doing such, the Pirates would win nothing but still lose their best players, and a feeling of emptiness and regret for not being more proactive in giving those guys more of a chance would take hold.
On the other hand, if they won't be interested in doing enough to give these guys a real chance, then begin the pending 2020 or 2021 rebuild in 2018 and accelerate the process for contention in 2021 or 2022 instead of middling for a few more years then rebuilding and wasting years. If Pirates were to begin a rebuild this offseason, they could get a great jumpstart. Gerrit Cole would bring back a major haul, Rivero possibly more so. McCutchen and Nova would bring back sizable hauls, as well and Harrison. Freese and Cervelli would bring back modest hauls but still nothing to sneeze at. Maybe the Pirates would even consider dealing Marte, Polanco, or even Taillon for huge hauls if they would want to really make an insane push at a rebuild. While this direction seems unlikely, if they were to do this, they would instantly have the best farm system in baseball and a rebuild would potentially give fans some more hope as opposed to staying in the middle; White Sox fans, in particular, have embraced their team's rebuild as they know it's more hopeful than middling all the time. A similar effect could be in play here.
The lack of direction the Pirates are showing right now is very concerning. I've failed to understand where many of the moves made the last couple years are taking them. Are they trying to win with this brilliant core or are they perpetually concerned with the next core? Having foresight for the future is at the center of small market teams, but doing it to a fault is worse than not having foresight at all. If the Pirates are truly concerned with the next core, trade away from this core to help that core and create a monster for a 2021-2022 timeline. If the Pirates have belief in this core, don't worry about the next one so much and do what needs done to make this one the one to get behind and worry about the rest later as a rebuild is coming soon either way because the current MLB, especially for small market teams, is truly just a cycle of knowing when to go for it and when to rebuild to go for it again in a few years. Either way, a direction has to be chosen by this front office because this constant kicking the rock down the road will eventually lead to a place where there's no road left, you lose the rock, and suddenly have nowhere to go and nothing left to kick.
The Pirates front office has done an amazing job getting the Pirates from where they were in 2007 to where they are now a decade later. However, it's not enough just to get to where they are, they now have to capitalize on what they've done or just pack it up, try again, and realize the mistakes they made to make sure they'll do better the next big opportunity they get. In any case, staying middling is not a way to run an organization. The Pirates were going down the winding road nicely up until 2015 before they hit a fork in the road in 2016 and now have tried to drive right in the middle of the fork in the road but got stuck trying. Now is the time they put their car back in drive and either pick to go down "Contend Road" or "Rebuild Street". Your call, Pirates.
Monday, July 31, 2017
Pirates trade deadline review
Pirates entered trade deadline day at 51-54, which is good for 5.5 out of the division lead but in 4th place. This means that, while they have a chance at the division, it's an uphill battle. But, at the same time, it may be a little tough to stomach giving up when the Pirates would have dreamed to be this close to the Cubs in the standings at any point in the next few years. Pirates find themselves in the middle ground, which is never a good place to be. Pirates could easily justify being buyers, sellers, both, or neither. So, what did they do?
Pirates trade LHP Tony Watson to Dodgers for 2 prospects: IF Oneil Cruz and RHP Angel German
It is hard to see the Tony Watson era in Pittsburgh come to a come to a close, but it was the right move. Tony Watson was going to go as a free agent anyhow. Pirates, on the other hand, acquired two intriguing prospects in this deal, most notably Oneil Cruz. Cruz is a 3B/SS that is far off, but has a lot of room to grow as he can develop into a good hitter. Angel German has an intriguing arm, but has comtrol issues like many at his development level. He will need a lot of polishing, but both these guys will. However, both these guys are intriguing and worth keeping an eye on. This is probably about maximum value Pirates could get for Tony Watson.
Pirates acquire RHP Joaquin Benoit and cash from Phillies for RHP Seth McGarry
Pirates, in a more shocking deal that proceeded Watson deal, acquired a reliever to replace Watson. Benoit, who just turned 40, has been a steady reliever at best. His face value numbers are okay, but some of his other stats paint a better picture. He has a 3.79 FIP, holds opponents to a low batting average, and still strikes out a ton of guys. He is a serviceable reliever that can still be effective. However, it is understandable to think why Pirates should have just let the young relievers like Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas get a chance instead.
Synopsis: On the surface, these deals seem to not make much sense, and it is easy to see why. They basically just replaced Watson with Benoit, held onto other pending free agents, but didn't add to the team in an effort to get by the Cubs. It looks as if they just re-arranged the furniture in the room, and I understand why people feel that way. They kind of held, kind of sold, and kind of bought but may not have done enough of either to make a difference. The MLB team is basically not gaining or losing much by replacing Benoit with Watson. However, the Pirates farm system did improve, if nothing else.
Pirates trade LHP Tony Watson to Dodgers for 2 prospects: IF Oneil Cruz and RHP Angel German
It is hard to see the Tony Watson era in Pittsburgh come to a come to a close, but it was the right move. Tony Watson was going to go as a free agent anyhow. Pirates, on the other hand, acquired two intriguing prospects in this deal, most notably Oneil Cruz. Cruz is a 3B/SS that is far off, but has a lot of room to grow as he can develop into a good hitter. Angel German has an intriguing arm, but has comtrol issues like many at his development level. He will need a lot of polishing, but both these guys will. However, both these guys are intriguing and worth keeping an eye on. This is probably about maximum value Pirates could get for Tony Watson.
Pirates acquire RHP Joaquin Benoit and cash from Phillies for RHP Seth McGarry
Pirates, in a more shocking deal that proceeded Watson deal, acquired a reliever to replace Watson. Benoit, who just turned 40, has been a steady reliever at best. His face value numbers are okay, but some of his other stats paint a better picture. He has a 3.79 FIP, holds opponents to a low batting average, and still strikes out a ton of guys. He is a serviceable reliever that can still be effective. However, it is understandable to think why Pirates should have just let the young relievers like Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas get a chance instead.
Synopsis: On the surface, these deals seem to not make much sense, and it is easy to see why. They basically just replaced Watson with Benoit, held onto other pending free agents, but didn't add to the team in an effort to get by the Cubs. It looks as if they just re-arranged the furniture in the room, and I understand why people feel that way. They kind of held, kind of sold, and kind of bought but may not have done enough of either to make a difference. The MLB team is basically not gaining or losing much by replacing Benoit with Watson. However, the Pirates farm system did improve, if nothing else.
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Pirates trade targets: Infielders
The Pirates recent surge has propelled them into a state of being buyers at the trade deadline (or at least buyers and sellers) as they try to win the NL Central crown for the first time since moving into the division. Knowing this, the team has definite holes to fill. So throughout the week as we approach the trade deadline, I will look at some options that could fill these holes that the Pirates could, realistically or unrealistically, look to acquire. I will start with infielders.
Pirates have some infielders, but the main area of weakness has been 3rd base. David Freese hasn't been good in an everyday role and we don't have any clue if/when Kang will return. So, in short, Pirates could use an upgrade. Pirates can go two ways about this though. One way is to grab a 3rd baseman and keep Harrison at 2nd base. Another is to grab a second baseman and move Harrison to 3rd base. So, I will look at some options at 3rd base and 2nd base.
1) Joe Panik:
Joe Panik has had a rough go of it on both sides of the ball this season and over the last calendar year. However, the Giants are in no hurry to just give up on him, especially when they have very little in their pipeline to take over that spot. Panik is not a free agent until after the 2020 season, so the Giants can definitely afford to hold onto him and hope he bounces back. They will not trade him for a small return right now, but if they would, maybe he could fit as a bounce back guy with years of control attached.
2) Jed Lowrie:
Lowrie has enjoyed a renaissance of his career and is having a very productive offensive campaign. Like Nunez, he is flexible in positions, though he cannot play outfield. The kicker is that Lowrie would come with an extra year of team control, which may make him a more attractive trade candidate even though it'd cost more.
3) Yangervis Solarte:
Solarte has been an above average offensive player for years and would add instant pop to the Pirates lineup. However, he is on the DL right now and likely won't return in time for the trade deadline. Padres would be trading a very good player at low value, and I just can't see that especially given Padres GM AJ Preller's history of not disclosing medical concerns in trades.
4) Brandon Phillips:
I know, I know. Brandon Phillips is so gross if you are a Pirates fans. All of the years of him just showing up, crushing the Pirates for no reason, and smiling through it all has annoyed us. Right now, the 36-year old of the Atlanta Braves still gets it done enough at the plate and in the field. He'd be a decent upgrade, for what it's worth. However, like I mentioned before, he'd be a rental, and I cannot see the Pirates springing for something like that. Additionally, the sheer weirdness of Brandon Phillips residing in the Pirates lineup and wearing a Pirates uniform may be too difficult to stomach. But hey, at least he'd see his old buddies with the Reds a lot in the second half of the season.
5) Asdrubal Cabrera:
Asdrubal Cabrera has really not played third base at all in his career and got somewhat mad at the Mets for having him at second base. Those are the two main positions he would play if he went to the Pirates, so I don't know if it'd work out at all. He does carry an extra year of control after this though, so that'd be a bonus.
Some of these options could push Harrison to 3rd base. Some would keep Harrison at 2B. In any case, the Pirates could definitely use an upgrade from David Freese at 3rd base, as he doesn't look like a player that should be playing everyday. If the Pirates could grab any of these guys, they'd be upgrading a huge position of need.
Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Pirates trade targets: Starting Pitchers
The Pirates recent surge has propelled them into a state of being buyers (or at least buyers and sellers) at the trade deadline as they try to win the NL Central crown for the first time since moving into the division. Knowing this, the team has definite holes to fill. The starting rotation doesn't sound like a spot they need to upgrade, but at this time of year, you never know as every team vying for the playoffs could use the help. So, I will be looking at some starting pitching options that could help the Pirates.
1) Sonny Gray:
Sonny Gray would immediately jump the Pirates rotation from a good rotation to a great rotation. A top of a rotation lead by Cole-Taillon-Gray-Nova is a pipe dream for any Pirates fan out there right now. Nobody would want to look back at that rotation staring down at them. However, the prospect cost may be too hefty to get what is, as of now, the prize of this year's trade market.
2) Jeff Samardzija:
Jeff Samardzija may not be a top pitcher, but he is a solid, consistent workhorse that gets it done. A lot of teams will be calling about him as Giants are looking to unload some salary and enhance a weak farm system. Would the Pirates pay the extra prospect cost to have Giants eat half of Samardzija's salary through 2020. I doubt it. He'd fit right in though.
3) Matt Moore:
Samardzija's teammate Matt Moore seems like a more realistic target. Pirates were reportedly interested in him (and every other Rays starter) last year before he went to the Giants. He has struggled in 2017, but has the stuff needed to get it right and Searage can maybe tap into that. The issue here is that I doubt the Giants would give up a reasonably-priced starter for little return less than a year after getting him at a premium acquisition cost. It would not make sense unless they truly are trying to shed as much money as possible and begin a rebuild.
4) Padres starters:
Trevor Cahill was dealt to the Royals, which means he won't be available and might have been the main one of the three that might have been of interest to the Pirates. The other two, Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, are signed to a one-year/$1.75M deals would fit perfectly in a team's payroll and rotation. These guys may not upgrade the rotation enough to make a fuss though.
5) Wade Miley:
Wade Miley has bounced around a lot and has found success in some places. He hasn't found it in Baltimore though since being acquired by the Orioles last year. Like some other pitchers, maybe Ray Searage gets a hold of him and figures out something. The problem with Wade Miley is his salary as it relates to his performance. He is grossly overpaid for what he brings, and the Pirates won't want to take that on. Pirates probably won't want to pay extra prospect cost to have Orioles take it on either.
In my opinion, the Pirates rotation is good enough. They have a young rotation but a talented one. Maybe Pirates needing to save the young guys' innings will play a role in the Pirates thinking and cause them to grab another Nova/Happ type, even if their performance doesn't necessarily upgrade things but their ability to go deep into a season without innings limits would. In my opinion, however, if they are to help this rotation, it should be a more major fix that puts the rotation over the top, not an incremental "fix" that might actually make the rotation worse. So, in short, don't give up assets to acquire a rotation arm just to do it, especially if it's a rental.
Friday, July 21, 2017
Pirates best move might be to hold onto Andrew McCutchen for now
It's been very widely-speculated that Andrew McCutchen could be on the move during the July 31st Non-Waiver trade deadline period. However, this is not as obvious of a move as it seems to be. In fact, a couple of factors have showed up in the last couple weeks that should discourage the Pittsburgh Pirates from moving on from the face of their franchise right now.
The most obvious factor that shows up is that the Pirates are playing much better lately, propelling them back in contetion. Over the month of July, the Pirates have started to show up with the potential that people know they have with this young team that may just be starting to bud at the right time. If we believe this is the case, then there's no point in tearing this core apart. The Pirates could be better in 2018 with the young players developing more and hopefully full seasons from Marte and Taillon (Kang is an outside possibility too). A big proponent of staying competitive in 2018 might be to have McCutchen as the team still seems to ride or die as he does.
Another reason to keep McCutchen is the questions surrounding Austin Meadows. By all accounts, Meadows was scheduled to be up in the bigs this July. However, he has had slower development than anticipated in AAA, mainly due to multiple injuries involving his hamstrings. So, Meadows may not be ready for quite awhile yet, and it would not be a total shock to not see him in the MLB in 2017 or even most of 2018. The main reason the Pirates were wanting to trade McCutchen in the first place is because they thought they could smoothly transition to Meadows when the time was right. That possible transition has been anything but smooth to this point.
Additionally, the only other outfield options they have after McCutchen, Marte, and Polanco are non-everyday MLB outfield options such as Adam Frazier, Jose Osuna, John Jaso, Chris Bostick, and Danny Ortiz. So, it could behoove the Pirates to keep McCutchen, even into 2018 as they play the wait-and-see game with Meadows, whose first full MLB season might not come until McCutchen is gone in 2019 anyways (Jordan Luplow could be an option in 2019 as well).
The third reason why keeping McCutchen for now might be a good idea is the outfield trade market. We already knew that the market for that position would be a buyer's market, but I didn't expect it to be as one-sided as it is. A few days ago, the Tigers traded away JD Martinez, the most-coveted bat in this market, to the Diamondbacks for basically scraps, proving how bad of a time it is to trade away outfielders. We know Neal Huntington won't trade McCutchen just to trade him and settle for a weak haul; he'll want a big haul in return, and I just cannot see a team giving that right now.
Well, my friends, it appears that we will not have to say goodbye to Andrew McCutchen just yet as it would seem like the Pirates have all the reasons they could ever need to keep him now. Between suddenly contending, questions about Meadows, and a weak market, the Pirates need to see what they can do while McCutchen is still around instead of trading him away and moving on.
Friday, July 14, 2017
Neal Huntington faces tough challenges as trade deadline looms
First and foremost, the MLB's, a league without a salary cap, landscape is a tough one to navigate. The lack of such a competitive balancing tool like a salary cap is an extra obstacle for small-market teams, who can't go out and get big-name free agents or part with major prospect hauls to get the top talent they could potentially desire. Additionally, these teams constantly have to be on the lookout for any deals and moves they can make to gain any sort of edge, even if it's unpopular and very unorthodox in nature.
This is just the dilemma that Neal Huntington, long-time General Manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates, has had to deal with for many years now. He has needed to navigate a very unfriendly landscape on the road to building a consistent contender in a market where it's very hard to. It lead to 3 consecutive playoff appearances from 2013-2015, but an injury-ridden 2016 and a 2017 highlighted by Kang not being allowed in the country and Marte being suspended for PEDs has made this one of Neal Huntington's most important trials.
Despite all this, the Pirates are 42-47, hardly the looks of a team capable of contending. But yet they sit 7 back in the weak NL Central, a far cry from first place but close enough to at least keep hope. They play most of their second half games against the division and Marte is due back on July 18. With this, there is at least a glimmer of opportunity to keep close enough this whole summer to perhaps steal it at the end in possible route to their first division title since moving into the NL Central.
But this is just the issue for Neal Huntington. His team on the field is currently below .500 but close enough to the division lead to feel like this could possibly actually be the year they can seize an opportunity in a weak division and make the moves to get there by fortifying their bullpen and maybe getting some help somewhere offensively (which actually may come in the form of Starling Marte).
On the other hand, there is the long-term. This Pirates team has been snake-bitten by a lot of things and maybe this just isn't the year. Maybe they just keep this team mostly in-tact except for the impending free agents, maybe some others and bet they can't possibly be more snake-bitten than this year (they can't possibly get more unlucky, right?). Maybe they do a minor reload in hopes they what returns Nicasio, Jaso, Watson, and possibly McCutchen bring back can be impactful in the short-term, as well as the long-term.
Then, one other things that rolls info the mind of general managers is when is it time to rebuild. The time for rebuilding isn't here for the Pirates as they got a nice core in place with more on the way sooner rather than later. However, if a rebuild were on, Huntington would have some nice pieces to part with. McCutchen is the obvious one, but he may be traded rebuild or not. The three bigger names to come up would be Gerrit Cole, Josh Harrison, and Ivan Nova. All 3, combined with McCutchen and the impending free agents, would net the Pirates awesome prospect capital needed to jumpstart a major rebuild. Additionally, Pirates would overhaul bullpen by parting with Hudson and LeBlanc as well and getting whatever they can in return. Mercer would be subject to talks as well. Fortunately (or unfortunately if you hate the Pirates winning and/or love prospects like they are your kids), the Pirates aren't in that position right now, and Huntington has repeatedly said he intends for this team to be competitive for awhile longer and a rebuild won't be on because they don't want to wait until 2021 or 2022 to be good again.
One more avenue is one the Pirates tip-toed into last July, the idea of buying and selling for the short and long-term. The Pirates may dive into that notion again but perhaps on a grander scale. Certainly they'd sell-off rentals and maybe some others, but maybe they could act as buyers as well for some players with longer-term control attached but can help immediately, so they don't lose big impact on the current MLB team while looking out for the future at the same time. This is a way the Pirates front office could shake up this team a bit in July without having to go for it all at once this year but also not sacrificing the present for the future as well. This could represent a balance the Pirates might like.
Neal Huntington has a lot of avenues he can take the next couple of weeks, and he might be choosing which one to take after this upcoming home stand out of the break against the Cardinals and Brewers, two teams they are chasing in the standings. However, I would not be shocked if he picks more than one avenue and sees where it leads him. Will he decide to buy? Sell? Rebuild? A bit of everything? All these questions will be answered sooner rather than later so buckle up.
Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Bob Nutting's vital role in the stabilization of the Pittsburgh Pirates
Over the years, the Pirates front office has been battered and butchered at every turn no matter what they do. The reason for this is because people seem to think Bob Nutting, owner of the Pirates, is a cheap dirtbag that only cares about lining his wallet instead of placing a winning baseball team on the field. However, since he took over in 2007, things have been looking brighter and brighter, and the Pirates are in not only a state of relevancy but stability as well.
Let's go back to 2007 when Bob Nutting took over for Kevin McClatchy as Principle Owner of the Pirates. McClatchy had the Pirates in a bad spot along with GM Dave Littlefield and others up, down, and all throughout the organization. McClatchy and his group failed to bring winning baseball to the city for over a decade. Then, in came the younger, humanitarian businessman Bob Nutting and literally everything changed.
Bob Nutting, upon taking over, knew the task was going to be tough in Pittsburgh. So, he needed some guys that he felt were going to be fit for the rebuild of a proud franchise mired in absolute incompetence. It took awhile to overhaul, but on September 13, 2007, the Pirates named Frank Connelly as team president after McClatchy left the organization entirely. Days before, Dave Littlefield was fired as GM, and Connelly was left as the main guy tasked to find a replacement for him. Connelly found his guy in Neal Huntington; a younger, brighter, more charismatic personality that was of the Indians organization prior. Huntington was officially named General Manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 25 of 2007.
After he got all his guys in place, Nutting and company began the major rebuild, and knew it'd take change from the bottom up and that it may take awhile. One of the main things he aimed to do to accomplish such a feat was to put the Pirates back in the international market as he knew that was becoming more major in the league than ever before. So, he began planning the construction of the Pirates Training Academy in the Dominican Republic. This put the Pirates back on the map in that market and has even lead to them grabbing guys like Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, and many more. Nutting would later delve into international waters not yet tapped into such as South Korea, Lithuania, and even South Africa, to name just a few, to open up passageways to finding talent not yet discovered before.
Next came the draft. The Pirates, under McClatchy and company, drafted players they could sign cheap instead of best player out there on the board. That all changed when Nutting and his crew made their first draft choice in 2008 by picking big-time college bat Pedro Alvarez from Vanderbilt second overall. And they weren't just drafting nice talents, they were giving these draft choices extraordinary bonuses, the literal opposite of the McClatchy era. The Pirates gave bonuses so big that the MLB had to change the rules to stop it (the biggest being the $5M bonus given to non-first rounder Josh Bell in 2011). The Pirates have put a major emphasis on the draft since Nutting and his guys came along and many players contributing today for the Pirates are guys they have drafted and developed.
Being in a small market in a league without a salary cap, the Pirates belief throughout the entire organization is that these principles of home-grown players, whether they are drafted or signed internationally, is important. Pirates can't go out and spend big on any player even in the event a big fish player is out there and trading for a superstar and ruining the farm system for one or two shots of winning it all with a crapshoot playoff system is out of the question because, in the event they don't win it, the organization may not recover for 5-7 years and all the hard work would go for naught. Pirates are firm believers of building teams from within, for the most part, that can compete at a high level and that getting there as often as possible gives them the best opportunity of winning as opposed to throwing all the chips into one basket and then losing the basket.
Since Bob Nutting got his hands on this organization, there has been great change and significant strides taken towards a championship club. He brought in great guys to help do the work, and they have done it well. They've found great deals on good international players, they have drafted way better, and they've made this organization a place where players feel welcome and actually want to play there. They've also been at the cutting edge of newer ideas such as the shift, and have been open to finding market inefficiencies such as reclamation projects and other things, that the rest of the league has since caught onto.
Is the organization where it wants to be? Definitely not. Is it close? I believe it is, and if you look up and down this organization, it's hard to say they aren't close. They got all the pieces they want and all the right people they need with a steadfast front office trying to find new niches everyday.
Under McClatchy and his guys, this organization was a mess. It was like if you left your sink running with the drain clogged and went on a week-long vacation and came back to a flooded house; that's about how drowned the organization was. Under the leadership of this front office, there's been a resurrection, a new-found hope, a belief that this organization is good enough to compete with anyone and everyone.
Say what you will about Bob Nutting, but he completely tore down this organization in an effort to build it back up and has thanks to the help of so many others, many of which we don't hear about everyday. To bring this organization from where it was 10 years ago to where it is now is a stunning feat, and I believe the people that have helped drive it forward and continue to do so deserve a lot of credit. Additionally, there are many other amazing things Nutting has done to make this organization better on and off the field, but if I tried to fit in all his accomplishments we might be here for hours. This is just a further testament to all the fantastic work this front office has done to get this organization from the worst place any can ever get to a place of better outcomes, new-found hope, and competitiveness longevity.
Monday, July 10, 2017
Could the Pirates make a run in the second half of the season?
The story of the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates is a story of doing just enough to stick around in the race of the surprisingly weak National League Central but not doing quite enough to seize an opportunity to make a serious run as of yet. Every time you think they are sneaking into the race, they fall out a bit, and you think they are done. But then, surely enough, a week later, they are somehow right back in it and hanging on for dear life, getting us at the cusp of believing again.
At the All-Star break, the Pirates sit at a seemingly lowly 42-47 but are only 7 games below the shocking first place Milwaukee Brewers. However, there is enough to believe this team can at least make an effort at sticking around all summer. For one, the division has no clear team readying to run away with it as the Brewers are, more or less, overachieving, the Cubs don't look prepared to hit their stride, and the Cardinals are just as mediocre this season as the Pirates have been, and of course the Reds are your friendly neighborhood cellar dweller again. Secondly, Pirates play a lot of games in the second half against the division, particularly the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds, but still have some games to go against the Cubs as well. The best way to get ahead in the standings in the division is to, naturally, beat the teams in it, and the Pirates will have plenty of chances to do just that, and, if they capitalize, it could pay huge dividends. Thirdly, on July 18, barring any postponements of games, the Pirates will welcome back their best player, Starling Marte, from his suspension. Adding that sort of star power is akin to making a blockbuster move at the trade deadline and should provide this team with a major boost shortly after the break.
But there is an obstacle that will change the Pirates season outlook drastically one way or another, and that is the aforementioned trade deadline. Pirates have until July 31st (though they will discuss all sorts of things and lay groundwork on many potential deals before then) to decide whether they will trade off expiring pieces and maybe some others and regroup for next season or if they should bet on this season a bit. Until that big day at the end of this month, the Pirates will play 16 games, 7 against the division at home and a 9-game west coast trip which includes 6 games against 2 of the worst 3 teams in the national league. This 16-game stretch will undoubtedly define the season.
To be solidified contenders and buy at the deadline, the Pirates have to realistically get to .500 or better at the least but probably have to close the gap on first place to 3 or 4 games and get to at least third place in the division. In order to achieve this between now and the 31st, the Pirates would have to go 11-5 and gain 3 or 4 games on the division lead and pass at least the Cardinals or Cubs in the standings. This makes those 7 with the Cardinals and Brewers to begin the second half ever important. They probably have to go 5-2, maybe even 6-1, in that stretch to have a real shot. Even if they manage that, they then have to not lay an egg after that on the 9-game road trip that sandwiches the surprising Rockies between the lowly Giants and Padres. Pirates would probably have to manage at least 6-3 in that stretch, maybe even 7-2, but it might not even matter if they can't beat the Cardinals and Brewers prior to that anyways, which makes those 7 games against the two division foes probably the make-or-break point in the season even more so than the trip out west with the trade deadline looming and the decision to buy or sell looming as deadline day fast approaches.
Can the Pirates make a run in the second half of the season? Sure they can! Is it realistic that they do? Now, that is a more debatable topic. A lot has to go right for the Pirates to make a serious run at this thing, and in a season where not much has gone right for this team, who can confidentially say things will start going right suddenly. But hey, maybe the bad luck in the first half of the season will even out into insanely great luck in the second half. That might be wishful thinking, but it is the hope all Pirates fans hold onto right now. In any case, the trajectory of the Pirates season will become clear very soon as their play on the field to begin the second half will tip the scales either way.
At the All-Star break, the Pirates sit at a seemingly lowly 42-47 but are only 7 games below the shocking first place Milwaukee Brewers. However, there is enough to believe this team can at least make an effort at sticking around all summer. For one, the division has no clear team readying to run away with it as the Brewers are, more or less, overachieving, the Cubs don't look prepared to hit their stride, and the Cardinals are just as mediocre this season as the Pirates have been, and of course the Reds are your friendly neighborhood cellar dweller again. Secondly, Pirates play a lot of games in the second half against the division, particularly the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds, but still have some games to go against the Cubs as well. The best way to get ahead in the standings in the division is to, naturally, beat the teams in it, and the Pirates will have plenty of chances to do just that, and, if they capitalize, it could pay huge dividends. Thirdly, on July 18, barring any postponements of games, the Pirates will welcome back their best player, Starling Marte, from his suspension. Adding that sort of star power is akin to making a blockbuster move at the trade deadline and should provide this team with a major boost shortly after the break.
But there is an obstacle that will change the Pirates season outlook drastically one way or another, and that is the aforementioned trade deadline. Pirates have until July 31st (though they will discuss all sorts of things and lay groundwork on many potential deals before then) to decide whether they will trade off expiring pieces and maybe some others and regroup for next season or if they should bet on this season a bit. Until that big day at the end of this month, the Pirates will play 16 games, 7 against the division at home and a 9-game west coast trip which includes 6 games against 2 of the worst 3 teams in the national league. This 16-game stretch will undoubtedly define the season.
To be solidified contenders and buy at the deadline, the Pirates have to realistically get to .500 or better at the least but probably have to close the gap on first place to 3 or 4 games and get to at least third place in the division. In order to achieve this between now and the 31st, the Pirates would have to go 11-5 and gain 3 or 4 games on the division lead and pass at least the Cardinals or Cubs in the standings. This makes those 7 with the Cardinals and Brewers to begin the second half ever important. They probably have to go 5-2, maybe even 6-1, in that stretch to have a real shot. Even if they manage that, they then have to not lay an egg after that on the 9-game road trip that sandwiches the surprising Rockies between the lowly Giants and Padres. Pirates would probably have to manage at least 6-3 in that stretch, maybe even 7-2, but it might not even matter if they can't beat the Cardinals and Brewers prior to that anyways, which makes those 7 games against the two division foes probably the make-or-break point in the season even more so than the trip out west with the trade deadline looming and the decision to buy or sell looming as deadline day fast approaches.
Can the Pirates make a run in the second half of the season? Sure they can! Is it realistic that they do? Now, that is a more debatable topic. A lot has to go right for the Pirates to make a serious run at this thing, and in a season where not much has gone right for this team, who can confidentially say things will start going right suddenly. But hey, maybe the bad luck in the first half of the season will even out into insanely great luck in the second half. That might be wishful thinking, but it is the hope all Pirates fans hold onto right now. In any case, the trajectory of the Pirates season will become clear very soon as their play on the field to begin the second half will tip the scales either way.
Friday, July 7, 2017
Extending McCutchen would be a bad mistake for the Pirates
A lot of the talk around the Pirates fan base recently has been surrounding the idea that the Pirates should extend Andrew McCutchen rather than trading him this month. There seems to be a lot more people entertaining the idea of extending the face of the franchise. I can see why considering all he's done and all he's meant for a franchise that desperately needed a star like that. However, times change, players get older, and situations come up that change things.
That's where the Pirates are with McCutchen. The 30-year old face of the Pirates struggled with the worst prolonged stretch of his career over the past season and a half prior to just tearing apart the league in June, capturing player of the month honors. This has suddenly created a different situation. For some, they think this means he's totally back and will never, ever be bad again as long as he plays. For others, including myself, I see it as a sad inevitability that his departure in a trade this month is just over the horizon because his trade value will never be higher, and an extension is just not worth it no matter which angle you look at.
But just why do I think an extension for the star outfielder of the Pirates is so unfavorable. I mean, it's easy to see that he is still "the guy" here, and his contributions off the field combined with what he has done on the field are greatly under-appreciated. Well, the answer lies within a handful of reasons as to why I think an extension of McCutchen would be a mistake.
The first reason is circumstance. You look at where the Pirates are headed as a club, and it's not one that is getting older and letting themselves rot away. It's instead continually injecting young guys into the mix, and that'll happen again once top outfield prospect Austin Meadows joins the fray. When that occurs, there will be no outfield spots because the Pirates would like to stay younger by going with a returning Marte and a hopefully resurgent Polanco ready to show up. Combined this with the other potential young outfield options such as Jose Osuna, Adam Frazier, and even Jordan Luplow soon, the Pirates have a healthy amount of options to continually plug in if needed. The aging McCutchen doesn't stand a ghost of a chance for a team that is trying to go more youthful.
Going off of that, another reason why he shouldn't be extended is age. There is a definite correlation between age and declining play for most players. Some lucky players escape this but not too many. There's little reason to think McCutchen will be immune to this either. The main reason for this is that we have already seen McCutchen's play fall off a bit, even at age 29 and 30. Knowing that, I don't know if I could put my trust in his play not falling off even further once he reaches age 32, 33, and up. His defense has been deteriorating for years and he hadn't exactly tore it up at the plate for the better part of a season and a half before his historic June. I couldn't extend major commitment of a long-term deal or the dollar amount it'd take to extend him knowing he's been good only 1 or 2 months since 2015 and his defense has fallen well below average.
The last reason is the contract in and of itself. To extend McCutchen long-term at his age, he would probably want a deal that's 4 years at least. Additionally, given the state of the MLB, he would almost undoubtedly not be willing to take a team-friendly deal again. So, the minimum you'd be looking at is probably 4 years/$72M ($18M/year) with the maximum being about 4 years/$88M ($22M/year). Also, his 10/5 rights would be activated within the timeframe of the contract, so he would essentially have no-trade protection throughout the contract as well, Given the probable further decline he will experience sooner rather than later, giving a guy like that about $20M a year (about 1/5 of the team's payroll) with his 10/5 no-trade rights activated would be a very risky move, especially for a small market team that can't absorb big blows.
Whether he's good or not throughout the deal, it'd will probably cripple the organization regardless because that's still a major chunk of payroll going to one player. Take the Reds for instance with Votto. Votto, even though he's a great player, takes up a major chunk of the Reds payroll, which has limited the amount of money they have to spend to build around him, which is why they've been rebuilding for awhile as Votto continues to rot on a bad team. And Votto has no-trade rights, so the Reds getting out from under that deal seems unlikely, if not impossible. Pirates could face similar challenges if they extend McCutchen, even if he remains good throughout the deal, and if he is an average player or worse, the organization wouldn't be able to recover for awhile.
I know what McCutchen has meant to this team and the city, and I thank him with all my heart. However, given the reality of how the MLB is, there's just no real benefit to extending him. Organizational transitions have to happen to keep the team operating in a favorable way, and this is especially true for small market teams who cannot risk making even the tiniest of mistakes, let alone major ones. So, not extending McCutchen and probably trading him isn't a fault of the Pirates or the front office not caring enough. It's simply just how the MLB is in this day and age.
In the end, don't expect an extension of McCutchen or for the Pirates to even consider such a thing. It's just too risky of a move to make for any team, let alone the Pirates. The Pirates have already extracted the best years of Andrew McCutchen's career, and he won't be getting better from here. In fact, it's likely to be a steady decline for him from here. The best move is not to overpay to keep him and avoid the situation where we have to watch he and the team around him rot away to nothing in a couple years while the organization is handcuffed and nearly powerless to fix it.
Thursday, July 6, 2017
Pirates trade deadline preview
It's July in the MLB; the time of the year where every team across the league's landscape has to begin making a decision about how they figure their season will end. For some, they think of themselves as bonafide contenders. While some, on the other hand, will see the season as a loss and prepare for the next season. Some, however, will be stuck in the middle. These thoughts lead every team in their decision-making as the July 31 MLB Non-Waiver trade deadline approaches closer as each day passes.
For today, I will look at some of the players that the Pirates would trade away if they figure this season is a lost cause and find themselves as sellers. I think the current state of the team and the standings dictate they should sell, even if it's a very soft sell of just players who are approaching free agency soon or guys that will be replaced by a top young talent before long.
RP Juan Nicasio (Free Agent after 2017)
Bullpen arms project to be at a premium price at the trade deadline this year again as there never seems to be enough out there and every contending team needs them. Juan Nicasio, despite a minor rough patch for 2 outings in late June, would still represent a very nice late-inning relief option for any team in need and can instantly make any bullpen more formidable. Nicasio will be a commodity that many teams would desire, and the Pirates would be able to get a nice haul for him this month instead of losing him for nothing in free agency in a few months.
Possible suitors: Basically every contender
RP Tony Watson (Free Agent after 2017):
Watson has had a rough season for the Pirates, but he has been a bit better since being removed from the closer's role, which could make buyers at least intrigued again. Watson, at worst, would provide a bullpen a nice option to strengthen their bullpen by deepening it, which has become ever important down the stretch and in the postseason. Watson is still capable of getting outs in the MLB, and with the way teams need bullpen arms, the left arm of Tony Watson is good enough still to warrant the Pirates receiving a nice bit of interest and likely at least a semi-decent return.
Possible suitors: Nationals, Astros, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Rays, Dodgers, Twins, Yankees
RP Antonio Bastardo (Free Agent after 2017):
At first glance, it would appear Bastardo has zero value, and you'd be almost correct. First, the fact that he is a lefty will at least bring some value. Secondly, since the Mets are paying some of his salary this year and the Pirates have been reported to be willing to take on some of his salary in a trade back in the offseason (and likely would still do that), a team can get him a relatively cheap rate in terms of what it'd take to acquire him and how much money the team would be on the hook for. Also, if he pitches at least decently in July, a potential buyer may see it as a turnaround for him and may take the low-risk/high-reward chance of adding him into their bullpen.
Possible suitors: Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rays, Rangers
RP Wade LeBlanc (Free Agent after 2017 at earliest with team option for 2018):
Wade LeBlanc was pitching out of his mind for the better part of two months before he fell back to earth in June. Still though, he is a decent middle to long reliever and has his uses in almost any bullpen. Combined that with the fact that he's a lefty will make interest in him at least decent. The Pirates, however, can keep him if they want, as his salary for next year is very low and he can still contribute. That low salary and at least his average effectiveness, however, could make him a fallback option to some teams that don't want to spend big on a reliever acquisition cost-wise or money-wise.
Possible suitors: Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Twins, Yankees
RP Daniel Hudson (Free Agent after 2018):
It's fair to say that the signing of Daniel Hudson hasn't quite worked out as envisioned, but he's been better than many people think. Additionally, Daniel Hudson generated interest from over half the league as a free agent last offseason, and maybe some teams still see him as a reliable guy. Pirates may be better off keeping him though and seeing if the investment in him can pay off further rather than trading him for a dud return.
Possible suitors: Nationals, Indians, Diamondbacks, Rays, Rangers, Twins, Mariners
1B/OF John Jaso (Free Agent after 2017):
Jaso has enjoyed a renaissance in his career by putting up what could possibly be his best offensive season in years, or possibly his whole career. He's had to step up with injuries and other things and has done a terrific job doing so. He has also brought defensive versatility to the table as he can play 1st base and both corner outfield spots. That, combined with the increase in offensive output, could make him a good target for teams in need of a versatile bench bat. Pirates wouldn't get a major return for 2 months of a bench bat, but probably could get more in return than anyone could have imagined.
Possible suitors: Yankees
IF/OF Josh Harrison (Free Agent after 2018 at earliest with team options for 2019 & 2020):
Josh Harrison has enjoyed his best season since 2014, especially with the bat. But that is only part of his game. He also brings great defensive skills at mainly 2nd and 3rd base but can also play outfield at least decently. In addition, he is just an exciting player and has that personality about him that can help a clubhouse pick themselves up when they're down. All this stirred together leads to a guy the Pirates would want a lot in return for, which is unimaginable considering Pirates were ready to just dump him this past offseason. His versatility and great defense are his main pluses but the bat is something he can bring to the table as well. I don't envision the Pirates trading him, but if someone gives them a great offer, it could happen.
Possible suitors: Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees
3B/1B David Freese (Free Agent after 2018 at earliest with 2019 team option):
David Freese was never meant to start this much for the Pirates, but Jung Ho Kang's issue have thrust him into action more often than expected, and the results have shown. While he hasn't been terrible by any stretch, he hasn't been great either. However, he can still help teams at 3rd and 1st base and/or on the bench while providing a good veteran clubhouse presence. Pirates may not trade him though with the uncertainty of Kang even though they can move Harrison to 3rd and Frazier to 2nd or use other young guys at those spots like Gift Ngoepe, Max Moroff, and even Eric Wood. It might just depend on if they see an offer they really like for Freese.
Possible suitors: Yankees, Red Sox
SPs Gerrit Cole and Ivan Nova (Free Agents after 2019):
I put these two together because they are both free agents after 2019, and the reasons for trading them or not are very similar. Firstly, trading either of them, in my opinion, would represent a rebuild has started, and for a team that hopes to contend in 2018, I don't think that happens. Adding on to that, if Pirates want to contend in 2018, having Cole and Nova with Taillon at the top of that rotation is a must because that's a very solid top 3.
However, the reasons to trade them are very similar as well, and that's if they receive an offer they can't refuse in a million years for them. If a team offers them a combo quality young major leagues and elite prospects, then a consideration of a deal should occur. But, if teams just try to come with "expected" offers for these guys, there's little chance the Pirates would trade them, and shouldn't, considering they have their eye on 2018 contention.
Possible suitors: Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Rockies, Braves, Rangers, Mariners
Andrew McCutchen (Free agent after 2017 at earliest with 2018 team option):
With top prospect Austin Meadows on the horizon and McCutchen aging and approaching free agency sooner rather than later, it makes sense for the Pirates to continue exploring trades for Andrew McCutchen. The fact that he had a historic June helps drive this forward as well, whether we like it or not. The value for McCutchen in a trade will be super high this month given his June where he made baseball look easier than breathing. Pirates, like many teams in a similar situation, won't pass up on the opportunity to trade an aging player at the peak value that McCutchen will have this month. Given his recent stretch, a handful of teams will come calling the Pirates to grab a guy that can significantly improve their chances of making a deep playoff run.
Possible suitors: Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals
I don't envision all these guys being traded this month, but it is almost a sure bet that all the pending free agents will likely be dawning new uniforms by 4:00 PM EST on July 31st. Anything besides that is almost not guaranteed, though it seems likely McCutchen will be dealt and a trade of Freese or Harrison will have a 50/50 chance of occurring. I can't see a concrete reason to trade Cole or Nova, but it could happen under the right circumstance. No matter what happens, I think the Pirates will be very active in July as they have some trade chips that many teams would like to have. Expect the team to look pretty different come August 1st.
Friday, June 30, 2017
Andrew McCutchen's time with the Pirates appears to be drawing to a close
Pirates drafted Andrew McCutchen what feels like a short 12 years ago, and since that moment, he has known nothing but playing in the Pirates organization his entire professional baseball life. Conversely, Pittsburgh Pirates fans over the years haven't known a Pirates team that didn't feature Andrew McCutchen.
The star center fielder has been the icon, the figure, the face of the Pirates. When you think about the Pirates, Andrew McCutchen is the guy that pops into your head almost immediately. It seems like, no matter what, he will be associated with Pittsburgh and vice versa.
However, baseball has to be a business at times and teams must transition their roster every so often in order to remain competitive and phase out the older players in exchange for the next wave of potential stars. This has lead to trade rumors swirling around him. This has become a sad reality, a cloud over the head of the superstar that helped bring winning back to the Pirates.
As we all know, Pirates nearly traded McCutchen in the offseason before a deal reportedly fell through with the Nationals. For better or for worse, it happened. McCutchen started off 2017 even worse than 2016 as he fell to the Mendoza line (.200 batting average) and wasn't producing for the better part of April and May. Since, however, he's been possibly the hottest hitter in baseball and his stats look wonderful now. This, coupled with the fact the Pirates may sell a bit at the trading deadline depending on where they stand as well as a looming Austin Meadows, has lead to the inevitability that a McCutchen trade may happen within a month when MLB teams do their bi-annual swapping marathon (The Winter Meetings being the other one).
Many fans are clinging on the hopes that he isn't traded and can remain a Pirate for life, an optimistic look but not one that dawns itself in this current reality. McCutchen, like so many others, just don't stand a chance to stay with one team their entire careers. The same will seem to hold true for McCutchen, unfortunately. He will either be traded this July, in the offseason, next July, or walk as a free agent. Either way, his time with the Pirates will be reaching a conclusion much sooner than we think.
So, Pirates fans: I think we should enjoy potentially the very last month we have with McCutchen as a Pirate because his last game could be almost every game in July, so enjoy every one like it's his last. Pirates fans will look back fondly on McCutchen no doubt as he has been one of the very special ones in Pirates history, and we can't forget that. We truly got to witness a great player form right before our very eyes, and it was remarkable.
When the inevitable moment of McCutchen's departure occurs, it is okay to cry (I know I will) because McCutchen left us all with lasting memories that will not be forgotten. He was a true great on and off the field, and we can't thank him enough for what he brought to the Pirates.
But as the curtain begins to close on Andrew McCutchen's Pirates career, it's important to know that each end is a new beginning. A new beginning for McCutchen to play elsewhere, meet new people, and have a new city hopefully embrace him. And a new beginning for the Pirates who will look to continue to field greats that we will never, ever forget.
If this is the last hurrah...........
Thank You, Andrew McCutchen.
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