Pirates players that'll exceed expectations in 2016

     Yesterday, I looked at how the Pirates roster will look when they break camp. Now that I did that, I'm going to look at some players on the team that I think will exceed expectations in 2016. I'll be looking at 5 in particular. 

1: Jeff Locke: Yes, I actually think Locke will exceed expectations. Ray Searage has him working on a new delivery. Most times when Searage does that, it works out. Now, Locke won't be a destroyer of worlds or anything. However, he will be a solid backend rotation guy this season. 

Prediction: 7-7 4.01 ERA

2: Jon Neise: Many people were mad when the hometown hero Neil Walker was traded for Neise. I wasn't. I actually liked it. Neise has had a solid career, even last year he was decent enough. Having him on options twice after this year is huge. I think he will prove himself in black and gold, and his contract won't be an issue. He's a solid 3 starter, which is all he needs to be. 

Prediction: 10-8 3.73 ERA

3: John Jaso: Nobody really knows what to expect out of Jaso yet with the permanent 1B switch, and his spot in the lineup is up in the air. Though, no matter what, he will put up a solid OBP number despite a low HR total. He will do enough to make a difference in the lineup

Prediction: .284 AVG .368 OBP 8 HRs 39 RBIs 

4: Eric O'Flaherty: I said yesterday that I think O'Flaherty would make the club out of spring training. I think he will have a good year, too. He was outstanding until last year. I think Ray Searage will do great work with him. He will be a staple in the bullpen.

Prediction: 4-1 2.43 ERA 

5: Gregory Polanco: Polanco had peaks and valleys in his first full year. However, overall his season was very productive. I think he will continue to improve, similarly to Marte. 2016 is a real chance for him to break out. I think his power numbers will improve slightly enough to really make a difference at the top of the order. 

Prediction: .291 16 HRs 56 RBIs 

     Those are the 5 players I think will exceed expectations in the 2016 season. On Monday, I will give my predictions on how the Pirates will do overall this upcoming season. Stay tuned for that. 

My Pirates 2016 season preview: Roster

     We know very well how the last few years have ended for the Pirates. Without going into great detail, we can say it's been a disappointment. The Pirates have done some things this offseason to try to get them over the hump. Dumping Charlie Morton and trading hometown hero Neil Walker. Losing AJ Burnett, JA Happ, Joakim Soria, Antonio Bastardo, and Aramis Ramirez, as well as non-tendering slugger Pedro Alvarez. Lots of pieces went out the door, but many others came in. Among those big names were Jon Neise, Ryan Vogelsong, John Jaso, Neftali Feliz, and many others. Yes, the Pirates have had a topsy-turvy offseason. Despite this, many are still predicting that they will have a very good season, and possibly another playoff berth. Today, I will be going over how I project the Pirates' roster will be built up and who will be on the 25-man after Spring Training. 

*Projections based on everyone being healthy 

Starting lineup:

RF Polanco

2B Harrison

CF Cutch

3B Kang

LF Marte

C Cervelli

1B Jaso/Morse

SS Mercer

Pitcher

Analysis: I like Polanco and Harrison as the 1 and 2 hitters. They'll see more pitches to hit that way with Cutch batting 3rd. Despite Jaso being an on-base machine, he'll hit lower in the lineup to balance it out more. The middle of Kang, Marte, and Cervelli isn't quite the most destructive, but it's formidable. Pirates lineup is built on a good balance of speed, contact, and power. This is a formula adopted from the Royals, who have baffled the MLB with it the last two years. 

Bench:

1B/OF Jason Rogers

Utility Sean Rodriguez

C Chris Stewart

1B Morse/Jaso

OF Matt Joyce

Analysis: This is a deep bench, with a lot of versatility. The signing of Joyce will help the OF depth a whole lot, and provide the Pirates with a real 4th OF, making Rogers and Rodriguez more or less pure IF depth, which is always needed. Florimon will not be needed for a bench because, despite his one clutch hit last year, he's not a good enough hitter to make this bench right now. Willy Garcia will likely not break spring training on the 25-man as the 4th OF because it might kill his development, as he is seen as a starting OF. There's no room right now. Joyce makes more sense with his experience. 

Starting rotation:

Cole

Liriano

Neise

Vogelsong

Locke

Analysis: The only reason Vogelsong is 4th starter is to split up the 3 lefties as best they can. There is little doubt the Cole and Liriano are the top 2 guys. Though the Pirates rotation looks weak in comparison to previous years, which means nothing anymore because their rotation always exceeds expectations.

Bullpen 

Melancon- Closer

Watson- Set up

Feliz- Set up

Caminero- middle/set up

O'Flaherty- middle/specialist

Hughes- middle 

Nicasio- long relief/Hybrid

Analysis: This bullpen also has a lot of versatility to it. Many guys can do many different things. Teams won't know who they will see out of that bullpen until the 8th and 9th with Watson and Melancon. Now, the Pirates are going to have some extremely tough bullpen choices, but I think they'll choose O'Flaherty for that last spot based on him being a lefty and his past accomplishments prior to last season. Though, Haley, Holdzkom, Lobstein, Luebke, Scahill, and others will make contributions. It seems to always work out that extra guys are needed. Pirates depth in the bullpen isn't a problem. It's whether that depth is good or not. Much of that is based on Ray Searage, who has his hands full this time around. 

     Tomorrow, I will highlight a few Pirates' players that I think will exceed expectations in 2016. Stay tuned for that as I continue my series of Pirates projections for the upcoming season. 

     

If Kaepernick does leave San Francisco, who is the 49ers QB?

     I talked about the news about Kaepernick possibly wanting out of SF yesterday. While I think that is highly unlikely at this point, there is a lot of time before the April 1st deadline for Kaepernick's contract option. Even if he is retained through then, he could still get dealt somewhere else. I definitely think the situation is resolved before or during the draft. Kelly has refused to talk about Kap, which is unsettling. Everyone knows that this is a very fluid issue with a lot that can go many ways. Keeping everything close to the chest is what people on the inside have to do. If Kaepernick does go, and the 49ers are put in a situation where they need a new answer at QB, who would the QB be? I am going to look at a few options.

NFL QBs

1) Blaine Gabbert: Blaine Gabbert would be the obvious choice. Maybe too obvious, in fact. He did a half-decent job last year, but nothing that will send the city in a frenzy and sell tickets. Gabbert is just a steady QB that doesn't do anything flashy. Similar to Alex Smith (oh boy). His skills are in fact very similar to that of Smith. Not the best arm, but gets it done enough to be reliable. He can also get out of the pocket and run only when necessary, just like Smith. Do the 49ers really want Alex Smith 2.0? Who knows. The one advantage Gabbert has is that he is already on the roster. 49ers wouldn't have to waste anything in order to have him as the QB.

2) Robert Griffin III: Is this idea crazy? Maybe not. It is almost certain that RGIII will not return to Washington. Cousins looks like the guy over there, and Griffin looks to be getting a fresh start somewhere. Griffin already comes packaged as a guy that has had recent success, just like Kap, and the ability to run an offense similarly to Kelly. His skills could work in a Kelly offense very well.

3) Johnny Manziel: Let's get this over with. I will never endorse anything Manziel-related. It looks almost certain that he will be out of Cleveland and find a new destination. There is no denying that he is a talented QB. He just can't figure it out off the field, and there is nothing to prove he ever will. Not wanted.

4) Sam Bradford: Bradford worked with Kelly last season, and now many are speculating that the partnership could continue. Though, Bradford is asking for a ton of money for overall mediocre play through his career, the 49ers could take the cap hit if they really wanted to. The upside would be that he has experience in Kelly's offense, which could help the whole team get adapted to it better. He could also improve as a QB with more experience in the system.

Draft QBs

1) Jared Goff: Goff looks destined to replace whoever the actual QB is in Cleveland. He will likely be taken well before the 49ers get any sort of shot at him. I personally think Goff is overrated. Besides. I also don't think he is a fit anyways.

2) Paxton Lynch: Lynch has a lot of Kaepernick in him. He has almost the same exact tools. If the 49ers take a QB in the first round, I think it would be this guy.

3) Connor Cook: I am actually very high on Cook. He can do a lot of things well even though nothing about him stands out. He is very similar to Sparty's last QB in that regard, Kirk Cousins. If the 49ers want a consistent QB like that, Connor Cook is the guy.

4) Dak Prescott: Dak Prescott enjoyed a lot of good days at Mississippi State, bringing the program back to life. However, he has fallen off a little bit since not declaring for the draft after his junior year when he looked like a sure top pick. However, he was recently named the Senior Bowl's most outstanding player. He could very well be there for the 49ers in the second round, but many are not sure where he will be taken. His place in the draft in a wildcard at this point. Much less sure than it was just a year ago. He could certainly fit Kelly's system while possibly being a steal in the second round.

     Those are 8 options, 4 in the draft and 4 current NFL QBs that could be options to replace Kap, if he leaves for another destination. Some of the options I like, some I love, but there are also some I am not too fond of. We will see how the situation plays out in the near future.

Could Colin Kaepernick really want out of SF?

     It was reported earlier today from a credible New York Jets insider that Colin Kaepernick would prefer to play for the Jets, and that he may want out of San Francisco. The news comes as a shock to most as it seemed that Kaepernick and Kelly are a great fit for each other. On the other hand, Kelly has declined to even talk about Kaepernick until his contract option later in the year. The Kelly- Kap relationship hasn't gotten off to the fleetest of foot, which is unexpected. Could this be a precursor to the end of Kaepernick in San Francisco? 

     Many believe it is clear that Kelly wants Kaepernick, but Kaepernick wanting to be part of Kelly's team is a different question entirely. The relationship between Kaepernick and the 49ers has definitely taken a big hit since he signed that extension a couple of years ago. Instead of looking like a top QB in the league and the 49ers franchise guy, he might be on his way out of the Bay Area or competing for a starting job once again. 

     Another wrinkle to this whole thing is that 49ers QB Blaine Gabbert said that he is confident that he can run Chip Kelly's offense. Gabbert sounds like a guy that hasn't been given any indication that he will not be the QB in San Francisco. Obviously, the 49ers wouldn't proclaim who their QB definitely is just yet, especially with a new coach with a whole different system in. They wouldn't want to make either of the QBs on the roster feel too comfortable. A QB competition could help them both. 

     This whole Kaepernick thing could be just talk or it could have backing to it. We honestly won't know until someone confirms or denies it or the situation plays out in some favor. It could very well be that Kaepernick wants out. It could also be true that Kaepernick wants to stay and compete for the starting job again. Nobody has all the answers right now, so let's just wait for it to play out.