Pirates trade deadline review

Pirates entered trade deadline day at 51-54, which is good for 5.5 out of the division lead but in 4th place. This means that, while they have a chance at the division, it's an uphill battle. But, at the same time, it may be a little tough to stomach giving up when the Pirates would have dreamed to be this close to the Cubs in the standings at any point in the next few years. Pirates find themselves in the middle ground, which is never a good place to be. Pirates could easily justify being buyers, sellers, both, or neither. So, what did they do?

Pirates trade LHP Tony Watson to Dodgers for 2 prospects: IF Oneil Cruz and RHP Angel German

It is hard to see the Tony Watson era in Pittsburgh come to a come to a close, but it was the right move. Tony Watson was going to go as a free agent anyhow. Pirates, on the other hand, acquired two intriguing prospects in this deal, most notably Oneil Cruz. Cruz is a 3B/SS that is far off, but has a lot of room to grow as he can develop into a good hitter. Angel German has an intriguing arm, but has comtrol issues like many at his development level. He will need a lot of polishing, but both these guys will. However, both these guys are intriguing and worth keeping an eye on. This is probably about maximum value Pirates could get for Tony Watson.

Pirates acquire RHP Joaquin Benoit and cash from Phillies for RHP Seth McGarry

Pirates, in a more shocking deal that proceeded Watson deal, acquired a reliever to replace Watson. Benoit, who just turned 40, has been a steady reliever at best. His face value numbers are okay, but some of his other stats paint a better picture. He has a 3.79 FIP, holds opponents to a low batting average, and still strikes out a ton of guys. He is a serviceable reliever that can still be effective. However, it is understandable to think why Pirates should have just let the young relievers like Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas get a chance instead.

Synopsis: On the surface, these deals seem to not make much sense, and it is easy to see why. They basically just replaced Watson with Benoit, held onto other pending free agents, but didn't add to the team in an effort to get by the Cubs. It looks as if they just re-arranged the furniture in the room, and I understand why people feel that way. They kind of held, kind of sold, and kind of bought but may not have done enough of either to make a difference. The MLB team is basically not gaining or losing much by replacing Benoit with Watson. However, the Pirates farm system did improve, if nothing else.

Pirates trade targets: Infielders

The Pirates recent surge has propelled them into a state of being buyers at the trade deadline (or at least buyers and sellers) as they try to win the NL Central crown for the first time since moving into the division. Knowing this, the team has definite holes to fill. So throughout the week as we approach the trade deadline, I will look at some options that could fill these holes that the Pirates could, realistically or unrealistically, look to acquire. I will start with infielders. 

Pirates have some infielders, but the main area of weakness has been 3rd base. David Freese hasn't been good in an everyday role and we don't have any clue if/when Kang will return. So, in short, Pirates could use an upgrade. Pirates can go two ways about this though. One way is to grab a 3rd baseman and keep Harrison at 2nd base. Another is to grab a second baseman and move Harrison to 3rd base. So, I will look at some options at 3rd base and 2nd base.

1) Joe Panik:

Joe Panik has had a rough go of it on both sides of the ball this season and over the last calendar year. However, the Giants are in no hurry to just give up on him, especially when they have very little in their pipeline to take over that spot. Panik is not a free agent until after the 2020 season, so the Giants can definitely afford to hold onto him and hope he bounces back. They will not trade him for a small return right now, but if they would, maybe he could fit as a bounce back guy with years of control attached. 

2) Jed Lowrie: 

Lowrie has enjoyed a renaissance of his career and is having a very productive offensive campaign. Like Nunez, he is flexible in positions, though he cannot play outfield. The kicker is that Lowrie would come with an extra year of team control, which may make him a more attractive trade candidate even though it'd cost more.

3) Yangervis Solarte:

Solarte has been an above average offensive player for years and would add instant pop to the Pirates lineup. However, he is on the DL right now and likely won't return in time for the trade deadline. Padres would be trading a very good player at low value, and I just can't see that especially given Padres GM AJ Preller's history of not disclosing medical concerns in trades. 

4) Brandon Phillips:

I know, I know. Brandon Phillips is so gross if you are a Pirates fans. All of the years of him just showing up, crushing the Pirates for no reason, and smiling through it all has annoyed us. Right now, the 36-year old of the Atlanta Braves still gets it done enough at the plate and in the field. He'd be a decent upgrade, for what it's worth. However, like I mentioned before, he'd be a rental, and I cannot see the Pirates springing for something like that. Additionally, the sheer weirdness of Brandon Phillips residing in the Pirates lineup and wearing a Pirates uniform may be too difficult to stomach. But hey, at least he'd see his old buddies with the Reds a lot in the second half of the season.

5) Asdrubal Cabrera:

Asdrubal Cabrera has really not played third base at all in his career and got somewhat mad at the Mets for having him at second base. Those are the two main positions he would play if he went to the Pirates, so I don't know if it'd work out at all. He does carry an extra year of control after this though, so that'd be a bonus. 

Some of these options could push Harrison to 3rd base. Some would keep Harrison at 2B. In any case, the Pirates could definitely use an upgrade from David Freese at 3rd base, as he doesn't look like a player that should be playing everyday. If the Pirates could grab any of these guys, they'd be upgrading a huge position of need. 

Pirates trade targets: Starting Pitchers

The Pirates recent surge has propelled them into a state of being buyers (or at least buyers and sellers) at the trade deadline as they try to win the NL Central crown for the first time since moving into the division. Knowing this, the team has definite holes to fill. The starting rotation doesn't sound like a spot they need to upgrade, but at this time of year, you never know as every team vying for the playoffs could use the help. So, I will be looking at some starting pitching options that could help the Pirates.

1) Sonny Gray:

Sonny Gray would immediately jump the Pirates rotation from a good rotation to a great rotation. A top of a rotation lead by Cole-Taillon-Gray-Nova is a pipe dream for any Pirates fan out there right now. Nobody would want to look back at that rotation staring down at them. However, the prospect cost may be too hefty to get what is, as of now, the prize of this year's trade market. 

2) Jeff Samardzija:

Jeff Samardzija may not be a top pitcher, but he is a solid, consistent workhorse that gets it done. A lot of teams will be calling about him as Giants are looking to unload some salary and enhance a weak farm system. Would the Pirates pay the extra prospect cost to have Giants eat half of Samardzija's salary through 2020. I doubt it. He'd fit right in though. 

3) Matt Moore:

Samardzija's teammate Matt Moore seems like a more realistic target. Pirates were reportedly interested in him (and every other Rays starter) last year before he went to the Giants. He has struggled in 2017, but has the stuff needed to get it right and Searage can maybe tap into that. The issue here is that I doubt the Giants would give up a reasonably-priced starter for little return less than a year after getting him at a premium acquisition cost. It would not make sense unless they truly are trying to shed as much money as possible and begin a rebuild. 

4) Padres starters:

Trevor Cahill was dealt to the Royals, which means he won't be available and might have been the main one of the three that might have been of interest to the Pirates. The other two, Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, are signed to a one-year/$1.75M deals would fit perfectly in a team's payroll and rotation. These guys may not upgrade the rotation enough to make a fuss though. 

5) Wade Miley:

Wade Miley has bounced around a lot and has found success in some places. He hasn't found it in Baltimore though since being acquired by the Orioles last year. Like some other pitchers, maybe Ray Searage gets a hold of him and figures out something. The problem with Wade Miley is his salary as it relates to his performance. He is grossly overpaid for what he brings, and the Pirates won't want to take that on. Pirates probably won't want to pay extra prospect cost to have Orioles take it on either. 

In my opinion, the Pirates rotation is good enough. They have a young rotation but a talented one. Maybe Pirates needing to save the young guys' innings will play a role in the Pirates thinking and cause them to grab another Nova/Happ type, even if their performance doesn't necessarily upgrade things but their ability to go deep into a season without innings limits would. In my opinion, however, if they are to help this rotation, it should be a more major fix that puts the rotation over the top, not an incremental "fix" that might actually make the rotation worse. So, in short, don't give up assets to acquire a rotation arm just to do it, especially if it's a rental. 

Pirates best move might be to hold onto Andrew McCutchen for now

It's been very widely-speculated that Andrew McCutchen could be on the move during the July 31st Non-Waiver trade deadline period. However, this is not as obvious of a move as it seems to be. In fact, a couple of factors have showed up in the last couple weeks that should discourage the Pittsburgh Pirates from moving on from the face of their franchise right now. 

The most obvious factor that shows up is that the Pirates are playing much better lately, propelling them back in contetion. Over the month of July, the Pirates have started to show up with the potential that people know they have with this young team that may just be starting to bud at the right time. If we believe this is the case, then there's no point in tearing this core apart. The Pirates could be better in 2018 with the young players developing more and hopefully full seasons from Marte and Taillon (Kang is an outside possibility too). A big proponent of staying competitive in 2018 might be to have McCutchen as the team still seems to ride or die as he does. 

Another reason to keep McCutchen is the questions surrounding Austin Meadows. By all accounts, Meadows was scheduled to be up in the bigs this July. However, he has had slower development than anticipated in AAA, mainly due to multiple injuries involving his hamstrings. So, Meadows may not be ready for quite awhile yet, and it would not be a total shock to not see him in the MLB in 2017 or even most of 2018. The main reason the Pirates were wanting to trade McCutchen in the first place is because they thought they could smoothly transition to Meadows when the time was right. That possible transition has been anything but smooth to this point. 

Additionally, the only other outfield options they have after McCutchen, Marte, and Polanco are non-everyday MLB outfield options such as Adam Frazier, Jose Osuna, John Jaso, Chris Bostick, and Danny Ortiz. So, it could behoove the Pirates to keep McCutchen, even into 2018 as they play the wait-and-see game with Meadows, whose first full MLB season might not come until McCutchen is gone in 2019 anyways (Jordan Luplow could be an option in 2019 as well). 

The third reason why keeping McCutchen for now might be a good idea is the outfield trade market. We already knew that the market for that position would be a buyer's market, but I didn't expect it to be as one-sided as it is. A few days ago, the Tigers traded away JD Martinez, the most-coveted bat in this market, to the Diamondbacks for basically scraps, proving how bad of a time it is to trade away outfielders. We know Neal Huntington won't trade McCutchen just to trade him and settle for a weak haul; he'll want a big haul in return, and I just cannot see a team giving that right now. 

Well, my friends, it appears that we will not have to say goodbye to Andrew McCutchen just yet as it would seem like the Pirates have all the reasons they could ever need to keep him now. Between suddenly contending, questions about Meadows, and a weak market, the Pirates need to see what they can do while McCutchen is still around instead of trading him away and moving on. 

Neal Huntington faces tough challenges as trade deadline looms

First and foremost, the MLB's, a league without a salary cap, landscape is a tough one to navigate. The lack of such a competitive balancing tool like a salary cap is an extra obstacle for small-market teams, who can't go out and get big-name free agents or part with major prospect hauls to get the top talent they could potentially desire. Additionally, these teams constantly have to be on the lookout for any deals and moves they can make to gain any sort of edge, even if it's unpopular and very unorthodox in nature. 

This is just the dilemma that Neal Huntington, long-time General Manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates, has had to deal with for many years now. He has needed to navigate a very unfriendly landscape on the road to building a consistent contender in a market where it's very hard to. It lead to 3 consecutive playoff appearances from 2013-2015, but an injury-ridden 2016 and a 2017 highlighted by Kang not being allowed in the country and Marte being suspended for PEDs has made this one of Neal Huntington's most important trials. 

Despite all this, the Pirates are 42-47, hardly the looks of a team capable of contending. But yet they sit 7 back in the weak NL Central, a far cry from first place but close enough to at least keep hope. They play most of their second half games against the division and Marte is due back on July 18. With this, there is at least a glimmer of opportunity to keep close enough this whole summer to perhaps steal it at the end in possible route to their first division title since moving into the NL Central. 

But this is just the issue for Neal Huntington. His team on the field is currently below .500 but close enough to the division lead to feel like this could possibly actually be the year they can seize an opportunity in a weak division and make the moves to get there by fortifying their bullpen and maybe getting some help somewhere offensively (which actually may come in the form of Starling Marte). 

On the other hand, there is the long-term. This Pirates team has been snake-bitten by a lot of things and maybe this just isn't the year. Maybe they just keep this team mostly in-tact except for the impending free agents, maybe some others and bet they can't possibly be more snake-bitten than this year (they can't possibly get more unlucky, right?). Maybe they do a minor reload in hopes they what returns Nicasio, Jaso, Watson, and possibly McCutchen bring back can be impactful in the short-term, as well as the long-term. 

Then, one other things that rolls info the mind of general managers is when is it time to rebuild. The time for rebuilding isn't here for the Pirates as they got a nice core in place with more on the way sooner rather than later. However, if a rebuild were on, Huntington would have some nice pieces to part with. McCutchen is the obvious one, but he may be traded rebuild or not. The three bigger names to come up would be Gerrit Cole, Josh Harrison, and Ivan Nova. All 3, combined with McCutchen and the impending free agents, would net the Pirates awesome prospect capital needed to jumpstart a major rebuild. Additionally, Pirates would overhaul bullpen by parting with Hudson and LeBlanc as well and getting whatever they can in return. Mercer would be subject to talks as well. Fortunately (or unfortunately if you hate the Pirates winning and/or love prospects like they are your kids), the Pirates aren't in that position right now, and Huntington has repeatedly said he intends for this team to be competitive for awhile longer and a rebuild won't be on because they don't want to wait until 2021 or 2022 to be good again. 

One more avenue is one the Pirates tip-toed into last July, the idea of buying and selling for the short and long-term. The Pirates may dive into that notion again but perhaps on a grander scale. Certainly they'd sell-off rentals and maybe some others, but maybe they could act as buyers as well for some players with longer-term control attached but can help immediately, so they don't lose big impact on the current MLB team while looking out for the future at the same time. This is a way the Pirates front office could shake up this team a bit in July without having to go for it all at once this year but also not sacrificing the present for the future as well. This could represent a balance the Pirates might like. 

Neal Huntington has a lot of avenues he can take the next couple of weeks, and he might be choosing which one to take after this upcoming home stand out of the break against the Cardinals and Brewers, two teams they are chasing in the standings. However, I would not be shocked if he picks more than one avenue and sees where it leads him. Will he decide to buy? Sell? Rebuild? A bit of everything? All these questions will be answered sooner rather than later so buckle up. 

Bob Nutting's vital role in the stabilization of the Pittsburgh Pirates

Over the years, the Pirates front office has been battered and butchered at every turn no matter what they do. The reason for this is because people seem to think Bob Nutting, owner of the Pirates, is a cheap dirtbag that only cares about lining his wallet instead of placing a winning baseball team on the field. However, since he took over in 2007, things have been looking brighter and brighter, and the Pirates are in not only a state of relevancy but stability as well. 

Let's go back to 2007 when Bob Nutting took over for Kevin McClatchy as Principle Owner of the Pirates. McClatchy had the Pirates in a bad spot along with GM Dave Littlefield and others up, down, and all throughout the organization. McClatchy and his group failed to bring winning baseball to the city for over a decade. Then, in came the younger, humanitarian businessman Bob Nutting and literally everything changed. 

Bob Nutting, upon taking over, knew the task was going to be tough in Pittsburgh. So, he needed some guys that he felt were going to be fit for the rebuild of a proud franchise mired in absolute incompetence. It took awhile to overhaul, but on September 13, 2007, the Pirates named Frank Connelly as team president after McClatchy left the organization entirely. Days before, Dave Littlefield was fired as GM, and Connelly was left as the main guy tasked to find a replacement for him. Connelly found his guy in Neal Huntington; a younger, brighter, more charismatic personality that was of the Indians organization prior. Huntington was officially named General Manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 25 of 2007. 

After he got all his guys in place, Nutting and company began the major rebuild, and knew it'd take change from the bottom up and that it may take awhile. One of the main things he aimed to do to accomplish such a feat was to put the Pirates back in the international market as he knew that was becoming more major in the league than ever before. So, he began planning the construction of the Pirates Training Academy in the Dominican Republic. This put the Pirates back on the map in that market and has even lead to them grabbing guys like Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, and many more. Nutting would later delve into international waters not yet tapped into such as South Korea, Lithuania, and even South Africa, to name just a few, to open up passageways to finding talent not yet discovered before. 

Next came the draft. The Pirates, under McClatchy and company, drafted players they could sign cheap instead of best player out there on the board. That all changed when Nutting and his crew made their first draft choice in 2008 by picking big-time college bat Pedro Alvarez from Vanderbilt second overall. And they weren't just drafting nice talents, they were giving these draft choices extraordinary bonuses, the literal opposite of the McClatchy era. The Pirates gave bonuses so big that the MLB had to change the rules to stop it (the biggest being the $5M bonus given to non-first rounder Josh Bell in 2011). The Pirates have put a major emphasis on the draft since Nutting and his guys came along and many players contributing today for the Pirates are guys they have drafted and developed. 

Being in a small market in a league without a salary cap, the Pirates belief throughout the entire organization is that these principles of home-grown players, whether they are drafted or signed internationally, is important. Pirates can't go out and spend big on any player even in the event a big fish player is out there and trading for a superstar and ruining the farm system for one or two shots of winning it all with a crapshoot playoff system is out of the question because, in the event they don't win it, the organization may not recover for 5-7 years and all the hard work would go for naught. Pirates are firm believers of building teams from within, for the most part, that can compete at a high level and that getting there as often as possible gives them the best opportunity of winning as opposed to throwing all the chips into one basket and then losing the basket. 

Since Bob Nutting got his hands on this organization, there has been great change and significant strides taken towards a championship club. He brought in great guys to help do the work, and they have done it well. They've found great deals on good international players, they have drafted way better, and they've made this organization a place where players feel welcome and actually want to play there. They've also been at the cutting edge of newer ideas such as the shift, and have been open to finding market inefficiencies such as reclamation projects and other things, that the rest of the league has since caught onto. 

Is the organization where it wants to be? Definitely not. Is it close? I believe it is, and if you look up and down this organization, it's hard to say they aren't close. They got all the pieces they want and all the right people they need with a steadfast front office trying to find new niches everyday. 

Under McClatchy and his guys, this organization was a mess. It was like if you left your sink running with the drain clogged and went on a week-long vacation and came back to a flooded house; that's about how drowned the organization was. Under the leadership of this front office, there's been a resurrection, a new-found hope, a belief that this organization is good enough to compete with anyone and everyone.

Say what you will about Bob Nutting, but he completely tore down this organization in an effort to build it back up and has thanks to the help of so many others, many of which we don't hear about everyday. To bring this organization from where it was 10 years ago to where it is now is a stunning feat, and I believe the people that have helped drive it forward and continue to do so deserve a lot of credit. Additionally, there are many other amazing things Nutting has done to make this organization better on and off the field, but if I tried to fit in all his accomplishments we might be here for hours. This is just a further testament to all the fantastic work this front office has done to get this organization from the worst place any can ever get to a place of better outcomes, new-found hope, and competitiveness longevity. 

Could the Pirates make a run in the second half of the season?

The story of the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates is a story of doing just enough to stick around in the race of the surprisingly weak National League Central but not doing quite enough to seize an opportunity to make a serious run as of yet. Every time you think they are sneaking into the race, they fall out a bit, and you think they are done. But then, surely enough, a week later, they are somehow right back in it and hanging on for dear life, getting us at the cusp of believing again.

At the All-Star break, the Pirates sit at a seemingly lowly 42-47 but are only 7 games below the shocking first place Milwaukee Brewers. However, there is enough to believe this team can at least make an effort at sticking around all summer. For one, the division has no clear team readying to run away with it as the Brewers are, more or less, overachieving, the Cubs don't look prepared to hit their stride, and the Cardinals are just as mediocre this season as the Pirates have been, and of course the Reds are your friendly neighborhood cellar dweller again. Secondly, Pirates play a lot of games in the second half against the division, particularly the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds, but still have some games to go against the Cubs as well. The best way to get ahead in the standings in the division is to, naturally, beat the teams in it, and the Pirates will have plenty of chances to do just that, and, if they capitalize,  it could pay huge dividends. Thirdly, on July 18, barring any postponements of games, the Pirates will welcome back their best player, Starling Marte, from his suspension. Adding that sort of star power is akin to making a blockbuster move at the trade deadline and should provide this team with a major boost shortly after the break.

But there is an obstacle that will change the Pirates season outlook drastically one way or another, and that is the aforementioned trade deadline. Pirates have until July 31st (though they will discuss all sorts of things and lay groundwork on many potential deals before then) to decide whether they will trade off expiring pieces and maybe some others and regroup for next season or if they should bet on this season a bit. Until that big day at the end of this month, the Pirates will play 16 games, 7 against the division at home and a 9-game west coast trip which includes 6 games against 2 of the worst 3 teams in the national league. This 16-game stretch will undoubtedly define the season.

To be solidified contenders and buy at the deadline, the Pirates have to realistically get to .500 or better at the least but probably have to close the gap on first place to 3 or 4 games and get to at least third place in the division. In order to achieve this between now and the 31st, the Pirates would have to go 11-5 and gain 3 or 4 games on the division lead and pass at least the Cardinals or Cubs in the standings. This makes those 7 with the Cardinals and Brewers to begin the second half ever important. They probably have to go 5-2, maybe even 6-1, in that stretch to have a real shot. Even if they manage that, they then have to not lay an egg after that on the 9-game road trip that sandwiches the surprising Rockies between the lowly Giants and Padres. Pirates would probably have to manage at least 6-3 in that stretch, maybe even 7-2, but it might not even matter if they can't beat the Cardinals and Brewers prior to that anyways, which makes those 7 games against the two division foes probably the make-or-break point in the season even more so than the trip out west with the trade deadline looming and the decision to buy or sell looming as deadline day fast approaches.

Can the Pirates make a run in the second half of the season? Sure they can! Is it realistic that they do? Now, that is a more debatable topic. A lot has to go right for the Pirates to make a serious run at this thing, and in a season where not much has gone right for this team, who can confidentially say things will start going right suddenly. But hey, maybe the bad luck in the first half of the season will even out into insanely great luck in the second half. That might be wishful thinking, but it is the hope all Pirates fans hold onto right now. In any case, the trajectory of the Pirates season will become clear very soon as their play on the field to begin the second half will tip the scales either way.

Extending McCutchen would be a bad mistake for the Pirates

A lot of the talk around the Pirates fan base recently has been surrounding the idea that the Pirates should extend Andrew McCutchen rather than trading him this month. There seems to be a lot more people entertaining the idea of extending the face of the franchise. I can see why considering all he's done and all he's meant for a franchise that desperately needed a star like that. However, times change, players get older, and situations come up that change things. 

That's where the Pirates are with McCutchen. The 30-year old face of the Pirates struggled with the worst prolonged stretch of his career over the past season and a half prior to just tearing apart the league in June, capturing player of the month honors. This has suddenly created a different situation. For some, they think this means he's totally back and will never, ever be bad again as long as he plays. For others, including myself, I see it as a sad inevitability that his departure in a trade this month is just over the horizon because his trade value will never be higher, and an extension is just not worth it no matter which angle you look at.

But just why do I think an extension for the star outfielder of the Pirates is so unfavorable. I mean, it's easy to see that he is still "the guy" here, and his contributions off the field combined with what he has done on the field are greatly under-appreciated. Well, the answer lies within a handful of reasons as to why I think an extension of McCutchen would be a mistake. 

The first reason is circumstance. You look at where the Pirates are headed as a club, and it's not one that is getting older and letting themselves rot away. It's instead continually injecting young guys into the mix, and that'll happen again once top outfield prospect Austin Meadows joins the fray. When that occurs, there will be no outfield spots because the Pirates would like to stay younger by going with a returning Marte and a hopefully resurgent Polanco ready to show up. Combined this with the other potential young outfield options such as Jose Osuna, Adam Frazier, and even Jordan Luplow soon, the Pirates have a healthy amount of options to continually plug in if needed. The aging McCutchen doesn't stand a ghost of a chance for a team that is trying to go more youthful. 

Going off of that, another reason why he shouldn't be extended is age. There is a definite correlation between age and declining play for most players. Some lucky players escape this but not too many. There's little reason to think McCutchen will be immune to this either. The main reason for this is that we have already seen McCutchen's play fall off a bit, even at age 29 and 30. Knowing that, I don't know if I could put my trust in his play not falling off even further once he reaches age 32, 33, and up. His defense has been deteriorating for years and he hadn't exactly tore it up at the plate for the better part of a season and a half before his historic June. I couldn't extend major commitment of a long-term deal or the dollar amount it'd take to extend him knowing he's been good only 1 or 2 months since 2015 and his defense has fallen well below average. 

The last reason is the contract in and of itself. To extend McCutchen long-term at his age, he would probably want a deal that's 4 years at least. Additionally, given the state of the MLB, he would almost undoubtedly not be willing to take a team-friendly deal again. So, the minimum you'd be looking at is probably 4 years/$72M ($18M/year) with the maximum being about 4 years/$88M ($22M/year). Also, his 10/5 rights would be activated within the timeframe of the contract, so he would essentially have no-trade protection throughout the contract as well, Given the probable further decline he will experience sooner rather than later, giving a guy like that about $20M a year (about 1/5 of the team's payroll) with his 10/5 no-trade rights activated would be a very risky move, especially for a small market team that can't absorb big blows.   

Whether he's good or not throughout the deal, it'd will probably cripple the organization regardless because that's still a major chunk of payroll going to one player. Take the Reds for instance with Votto. Votto, even though he's a great player, takes up a major chunk of the Reds payroll, which has limited the amount of money they have to spend to build around him, which is why they've been rebuilding for awhile as Votto continues to rot on a bad team. And Votto has no-trade rights, so the Reds getting out from under that deal seems unlikely, if not impossible. Pirates could face similar challenges if they extend McCutchen, even if he remains good throughout the deal, and if he is an average player or worse, the organization wouldn't be able to recover for awhile. 

I know what McCutchen has meant to this team and the city, and I thank him with all my heart. However, given the reality of how the MLB is, there's just no real benefit to extending him. Organizational transitions have to happen to keep the team operating in a favorable way, and this is especially true for small market teams who cannot risk making even the tiniest of mistakes, let alone major ones. So, not extending McCutchen and probably trading him isn't a fault of the Pirates or the front office not caring enough. It's simply just how the MLB is in this day and age. 

In the end, don't expect an extension of McCutchen or for the Pirates to even consider such a thing. It's just too risky of a move to make for any team, let alone the Pirates. The Pirates have already extracted the best years of Andrew McCutchen's career, and he won't be getting better from here. In fact, it's likely to be a steady decline for him from here. The best move is not to overpay to keep him and avoid the situation where we have to watch he and the team around him rot away to nothing in a couple years while the organization is handcuffed and nearly powerless to fix it. 

Pirates trade deadline preview

It's July in the MLB; the time of the year where every team across the league's landscape has to begin making a decision about how they figure their season will end. For some, they think of themselves as bonafide contenders. While some, on the other hand, will see the season as a loss and prepare for the next season. Some, however, will be stuck in the middle. These thoughts lead every team in their decision-making as the July 31 MLB Non-Waiver trade deadline approaches closer as each day passes. 

For today, I will look at some of the players that the Pirates would trade away if they figure this season is a lost cause and find themselves as sellers. I think the current state of the team and the standings dictate they should sell, even if it's a very soft sell of just players who are approaching free agency soon or guys that will be replaced by a top young talent before long.

RP Juan Nicasio (Free Agent after 2017)

Bullpen arms project to be at a premium price at the trade deadline this year again as there never seems to be enough out there and every contending team needs them. Juan Nicasio, despite a minor rough patch for 2 outings in late June, would still represent a very nice late-inning relief option for any team in need and can instantly make any bullpen more formidable. Nicasio will be a commodity that many teams would desire, and the Pirates would be able to get a nice haul for him this month instead of losing him for nothing in free agency in a few months. 

Possible suitors: Basically every contender 

RP Tony Watson (Free Agent after 2017):

Watson has had a rough season for the Pirates, but he has been a bit better since being removed from the closer's role, which could make buyers at least intrigued again. Watson, at worst, would provide a bullpen a nice option to strengthen their bullpen by deepening it, which has become ever important down the stretch and in the postseason. Watson is still capable of getting outs in the MLB, and with the way teams need bullpen arms, the left arm of Tony Watson is good enough still to warrant the Pirates receiving a nice bit of interest and likely at least a semi-decent return. 

Possible suitors: Nationals, Astros, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Rays, Dodgers, Twins, Yankees

RP Antonio Bastardo (Free Agent after 2017):

At first glance, it would appear Bastardo has zero value, and you'd be almost correct. First, the fact that he is a lefty will at least bring some value. Secondly, since the Mets are paying some of his salary this year and the Pirates have been reported to be willing to take on some of his salary in a trade back in the offseason (and likely would still do that), a team can get him a relatively cheap rate in terms of what it'd take to acquire him and how much money the team would be on the hook for. Also, if he pitches at least decently in July, a potential buyer may see it as a turnaround for him and may take the low-risk/high-reward chance of adding him into their bullpen.

Possible suitors: Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rays, Rangers

RP Wade LeBlanc (Free Agent after 2017 at earliest with team option for 2018):

Wade LeBlanc was pitching out of his mind for the better part of two months before he fell back to earth in June. Still though, he is a decent middle to long reliever and has his uses in almost any bullpen. Combined that with the fact that he's a lefty will make interest in him at least decent. The Pirates, however, can keep him if they want, as his salary for next year is very low and he can still contribute. That low salary and at least his average effectiveness, however, could make him a fallback option to some teams that don't want to spend big on a reliever acquisition cost-wise or money-wise.  

Possible suitors: Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Twins, Yankees

RP Daniel Hudson (Free Agent after 2018):

It's fair to say that the signing of Daniel Hudson hasn't quite worked out as envisioned, but he's been better than many people think. Additionally, Daniel Hudson generated interest from over half the league as a free agent last offseason, and maybe some teams still see him as a reliable guy. Pirates may be better off keeping him though and seeing if the investment in him can pay off further rather than trading him for a dud return. 

Possible suitors: Nationals, Indians, Diamondbacks, Rays, Rangers, Twins, Mariners 

1B/OF John Jaso (Free Agent after 2017):

Jaso has enjoyed a renaissance in his career by putting up what could possibly be his best offensive season in years, or possibly his whole career. He's had to step up with injuries and other things and has done a terrific job doing so. He has also brought defensive versatility to the table as he can play 1st base and both corner outfield spots. That, combined with the increase in offensive output, could make him a good target for teams in need of a versatile bench bat. Pirates wouldn't get a major return for 2 months of a bench bat, but probably could get more in return than anyone could have imagined. 

Possible suitors: Yankees  

IF/OF Josh Harrison (Free Agent after 2018 at earliest with team options for 2019 & 2020):

Josh Harrison has enjoyed his best season since 2014, especially with the bat. But that is only part of his game. He also brings great defensive skills at mainly 2nd and 3rd base but can also play outfield at least decently. In addition, he is just an exciting player and has that personality about him that can help a clubhouse pick themselves up when they're down. All this stirred together leads to a guy the Pirates would want a lot in return for, which is unimaginable considering Pirates were ready to just dump him this past offseason. His versatility and great defense are his main pluses but the bat is something he can bring to the table as well. I don't envision the Pirates trading him, but if someone gives them a great offer, it could happen. 

Possible suitors: Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees

3B/1B David Freese (Free Agent after 2018 at earliest with 2019 team option):

David Freese was never meant to start this much for the Pirates, but Jung Ho Kang's issue have thrust him into action more often than expected, and the results have shown. While he hasn't been terrible by any stretch, he hasn't been great either. However, he can still help teams at 3rd and 1st base and/or on the bench while providing a good veteran clubhouse presence. Pirates may not trade him though with the uncertainty of Kang even though they can move Harrison to 3rd and Frazier to 2nd or use other young guys at those spots like Gift Ngoepe, Max Moroff, and even Eric Wood. It might just depend on if they see an offer they really like for Freese.

Possible suitors: Yankees, Red Sox

SPs Gerrit Cole and Ivan Nova (Free Agents after 2019):

I put these two together because they are both free agents after 2019, and the reasons for trading them or not are very similar. Firstly, trading either of them, in my opinion, would represent a rebuild has started, and for a team that hopes to contend in 2018, I don't think that happens. Adding on to that, if Pirates want to contend in 2018, having Cole and Nova with Taillon at the top of that rotation is a must because that's a very solid top 3.

However, the reasons to trade them are very similar as well, and that's if they receive an offer they can't refuse in a million years for them. If a team offers them a combo quality young major leagues and elite prospects, then a consideration of a deal should occur. But, if teams just try to come with "expected" offers for these guys, there's little chance the Pirates would trade them, and shouldn't, considering they have their eye on 2018 contention. 

Possible suitors: Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Rockies, Braves, Rangers, Mariners 

Andrew McCutchen (Free agent after 2017 at earliest with 2018 team option):

With top prospect Austin Meadows on the horizon and McCutchen aging and approaching free agency sooner rather than later, it makes sense for the Pirates to continue exploring trades for Andrew McCutchen. The fact that he had a historic June helps drive this forward as well, whether we like it or not. The value for McCutchen in a trade will be super high this month given his June where he made baseball look easier than breathing. Pirates, like many teams in a similar situation, won't pass up on the opportunity to trade an aging player at the peak value that McCutchen will have this month. Given his recent stretch, a handful of teams will come calling the Pirates to grab a guy that can significantly improve their chances of making a deep playoff run. 

Possible suitors: Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals 

I don't envision all these guys being traded this month, but it is almost a sure bet that all the pending free agents will likely be dawning new uniforms by 4:00 PM EST on July 31st. Anything besides that is almost not guaranteed, though it seems likely McCutchen will be dealt and a trade of Freese or Harrison will have a 50/50 chance of occurring. I can't see a concrete reason to trade Cole or Nova, but it could happen under the right circumstance. No matter what happens, I think the Pirates will be very active in July as they have some trade chips that many teams would like to have. Expect the team to look pretty different come August 1st.