5 speculative trade packages for Felipe Vazquez

The Pirates are sitting on the periphery of a playoff spot. The division seems all but a lost cause and the hope for a wildcard is waning by the day. 

The Pirates look like they should focus on selling. While the pending free agents the Pirates have don’t hold great value overall, they do have one player in particular that would bring back enormous value. I’m of course talking about Felipe Vazquez. 

Vazquez has been the subject of trade rumors for now the third consecutive trade deadline with the Pirates. And for good reason. The 28-year old is wasting the prime of his career on a mediocre team that doesn’t have the chance to use him as much as they’d like because they aren’t competitive in enough games for that at present. 

Sure an argument can be made that he is needed if the Pirates are to contend in 2020 and beyond, but I don’t agree. They’ve had him for three years and haven’t done much of anything with him. Would having him in 2020 be any different? Trading Vazquez, however, could be this organization’s best chance to fill the roster with talent and give this team a chance to take that next step. Having a closer like Vazquez, as good as he is, might be a luxury the Pirates just can’t afford given all these other holes on the roster that could easily be filled by bringing back an immense haul for Vazquez. 

At the end of the day, if you can get 2-3 potential legit starters (a combo of pitchers and position players) for a reliever, you take that. Huntington has always found relievers out of the woodwork that have been great for the Pirates. That’s one thing he does well. 

Will the Pirates receive the haul they are looking for to trade him? Probably not. I’ll guess they hold onto him for now, but they’ll listen intently I’m sure. That being said, let’s see what kind of offers could get a deal done for Vazquez. 

Astros:

The Astros are chasing another pennant and could really use that final piece to inject into their young team to get them over the top. Vazquez could easily be that piece. And to nobody’s surprise, they have the pieces to make the deal. 

To Astros:

Felipe Vazquez

To Pirates:

OF Kyle Tucker

RHP Corbin Martin

RHP Bryan Abreu

C Garrett Stubbs

The must-have in this deal would be Kyle Tucker. The guy looks like he’s going to be a superstar in this league. He could easily be Starling Marte’s replacement and then some. Corbin Martin is immediate help to the pitching staff and Garrett Stubbs can provide immediate help to the catching position. Abreu would be the pitching piece for later. This would be a solid deal for the Pirates from both a talent and need standpoint. 

Braves:

The Braves with a legit closer like Vazquez would give the Dodgers a run for pennant favorites in the NL. Inject that young roster with that and watch them win a ton. And their system, as well, is filled with talent.

To Braves:

Felipe Vazquez

To Pirates:

OF Christian Pache

RHP Bryse Wilson 

LHP Kolby Allard 

C Logan Brown

This deal does include some potential help now in the way of Wilson and Allard. Allard, being a lefty, would really help this organization from a need standpoint. The big piece is Pache though. He’s projected to be up next year and he’s on a similar level to Tucker in terms of talent and potential star power. Would be a great add. Logan Brown fills the organization with an additional catching prospect. Would be a good deal for the Pirates as well. 

Dodgers: 

The Dodgers have really been the only team really connected to Vazquez but that doesn’t mean much since the Pirates rumors don’t leak much. But with Jansen struggling a bit, they could really use Vazquez to push a Jansen/Vazquez duo in the 8th and 9th that would cause nightmares. Dodgers have lost two straight World Series and might be desperate to make a huge move. They were connected to Vazquez for awhile now. So is it finally time that comes together?

To Dodgers: 

Felipe Vazquez 

To Pirates:

2B/SS Gavin Lux

C/3B Will Smith

RHP Dustin May

All three of these guys could help very soon and all of them are very talented top prospects. Gavin Lux has crushed AAA and would be the prize of this deal. He can easily be the 2B in Pittsburgh for a long time. Will Smith can fill the catching void instantly. He should certainly come in this deal. Dustin May can easily be a solid 2-3 starter at the major league level, if not more if he figures some things out. Of course, they could get Dodgers top prospect Keibert Ruiz in this deal and he’d fill the void at catcher. But he’s still at least a year away and it might be better value to get Lux instead and then ask for Will Smith on the backend of the deal. This is the best potential deal going for the Pirates in my opinion. 

White Sox:

This one might be a bit puzzling since the White Sox look like sellers. But they should be a contender next year and they may do some offseason shopping this deadline. Vazquez could be on their list, and if they are worried another team will scoop him up this month, they may try for him now. They are the one non-contender I can see going after him given the need and the immense talent in their system.

To White Sox: 

Felipe Vazquez

To Pirates:

RHP Dylan Cease

2B Nick Madrigal

RHP Zack Burdi

The big piece going in the deal from the Sox would be Dylan Cease. Cease was one of the players who went from the Cubs to the White Sox in that Jose Quintana deal. He’d provide immediate rotation help. Plus, trolling the Cubs with him would be fun if he winds up being amazing. Madrigal was one of the steals of the draft a couple of years ago and he has a 2020 ETA. He would be an awesome get for the Pirates in this deal given how good he is and could fill the void at 2B for a long time and soon. The other piece in the deal would be Zack Burdi, Nick Burdi’s brother. That’d be an awesome thing to see and if they both get and stay healthy, they could be dynamite in the bullpen, possibly even one of them replacing Vazquez as closer down the road. Another low-level prospect might have to go to the Pirates in this deal too. 

Twins:

The Twins seem to not want to trade their top prospects, but that was before the Indians started winning a ton and catching up to them a bit. The Twins are no longer safe. They are outplaying metrics and could use another star, especially in that bullpen, to make a run in October and Octobers to come. They could be in position to do what the Indians did in a situation similar a few years prior when they got Andrew Miller. 

To Twins:

Felipe Vazquez

To Pirates:

OF Alex Kirilloff

RHP Brusbar Graterol

LHP Steven Gonsalves

C Ben Rortvedt 

Kirilloff is obviously the prize of this deal. The guy is from the Pittsburgh area and would be on the club at some point next year. The fans would love him. Graterol could help next year too and has excellent potential. Gonsalves is a much-needed lefty for this organization and immediate help. Rortvedt would be a catching prospect for later. 

Would a Vazquez deal look exactly like any of these? I highly doubt it. GMs value different players differently than we do on the outside. But all of these potential deals would be rather nice if Vazquez would get dealt. The best one here I mentioned is the Dodgers one given the combination of immediate help, need and impact. But that Astros offer is a really good one as well. 

Now I doubt Vazquez is dealt, but the Pirates would need immense value coming back to even consider moving him. I don’t think any offers like the ones I mentioned come to Huntington’s ear, but if they do, he has to very much consider it and even probably do it. 

Pirates trade deadline outlook: If they buy

The Pirates left St. Louis with a bad loss to fall to 45-50. But they are still at least in striking distance of the division but more so the wildcard. And while the Pirates begin to look more like sellers everyday, it might not be that simple.

The NL is crammed, and this could lead to some interesting moves, especially with only one trade deadline now. A lot more teams have been open to buying and selling at the same time. And the Pirates are no stranger to this, doing it in 2016 and 2017. Even last year made the big buy moves in July but the sell moves in August came. The NL is set up well for this buy and sell philosophy as teams re-tool and let their young guys get a crack. The Pirates might do this too. They could simultaneously trade the rental pieces but also acquire controllable assets at the same time. 

But what would they need? The answer is obvious. It’s pitching. Getting Kela and Taillon back would help, but they need more than that. Could be another year of getting starting and relief pitching at the deadline. Let’s look at who is out there. 

Starting Pitchers:

Trevor Bauer:

The Indians are in the thick of the AL Central race but have concerns over long-term success and payroll. The time may be just ripe for them to trade Bauer. Waiting until the offseason might hurt the value and market for him as the acquiring team wouldn’t have him for the extra playoff push and the Indians’ desperation to move him would grow larger. His salary for next year, his final year of arbitration, could approach $20M. 

Bauer is an interesting case, however. At 28 years old, he has never thrown 200 innings in any season and was kind of only an okay mid-rotation type until last season where he pitched like an ace. However, this season, he has regressed again and actually a good bit. His ERA is nearly 1.50 runs higher and his FIP is over 2 runs higher. He is also projected to finish well short of his outstanding 5.8 WAR number from last year. He’s been good but not great this season. 

His salary could be intrusive for the Pirates payroll plus he said he wouldn’t sign long-term anywhere but instead a bunch of 1-year deals. He’s good but might not be dealt until the offseason and more likely than not the Pirates won’t give up the prospects or want to pay his contract next year. This is especially true given his inconsistent performance the last couple of years. You don’t know if you’ll get the ace Bauer or the middle-rotation version of Bauer. The latter isn’t worth the money and we’ve only seen the former for one season out of six. Risky gamble. 

Marcus Stroman:

Stroman is a decent middle of the rotation starter that is controlled through next year. His salary will be high but not absurdly so as super 2 in his fourth arbitration year. But his peripherals aren’t terrific and his injury issues are a huge concern as well. They don’t need to mess up a bigger trade again by acquiring a big name that might not deliver enough production-wise. 

Robbie Ray:

It’s no secret that the Pirates have long liked Robbie Ray. He’s not a great starter but he can get the job done. And the Diamondbacks have made him available despite chasing a playoff berth again. He is controlled through next year at what should be a reasonable rate. 

Would the Diamondbacks really trade him to a team chasing them in the standings in a crammed race though? If they think it won’t make a difference, perhaps. But we’ll see. He would have a year and a half of control and would solidify a rotation. Plus, the Pirates like him and have for awhile. Remember, they liked Archer for a long time before acquiring him too. 

Mike Minor:

Mike Minor looks like a likely candidate to be traded, even as the Rangers chase a playoff berth. They realize his value in a trade may never be higher than now. His injury history and possible regression might lead to a trade here. For what it’s worth he’s not a bad pitcher and at $9M a year, he’s a good value at that price even if he regresses a bit. He’s also controllable through 2020. 

But the injuries and regression are an issue that might keep some teams away and the Pirates might be more risk adverse after last year. He is a quality lefty that is not making a ton of money overall. Might be worth the gamble depending on the price. 

Jon Gray:

The Rockies are sliding bad right now, so the playoff team from last year may be looking to unload a bit. Jon Gray might be an option here. Gray has held his own well in the majors despite pitching a lot in Coors Field. The former top 5 pick could be even better outside of Colorado.

The issue is that he is still under team control for awhile and the Rockies have a nice core that had made the playoffs the last two years. This recent slide might not change that. Rockies might need an unreasonable haul to move him right now, something the Pirates can ill-afford. 

Relief Pitchers:

Ken Giles:

Giles has dealt with some injuries this year, but he might be looking a bit like the Giles of old again and the rebuilding Blue Jays could capitalize on that. The righty with some nasty stuff would make an awesome compliment to Vazquez for the rest of this year and next year, and could set up a backend next year involving Giles, Santana, Kela and Vazquez. Could be near unbeatable if Crick regains form and Rodriguez continues what he’s been doing. 

Mychal Givens:

Givens has been up and down this year. But he had some good years in the past that suggest he can get it back. The Orioles may not trade him at a low value like this though, especially when they control him through 2021 and can wait to see if he bounces back and trade him then instead. If he’s available though, a buy-low opportunity could be there. 

Shawn Kelley:

Kelley has never been a great reliever but he can get the job done. If the Rangers have Minor out there, Kelley could be too. They signed him to an absurdly cheap contract with a no-risk and cheap club option for 2020. 

Problem is the Pirates could have had him for almost nothing this offseason and didn’t seem to want him. Why would they want to give up an asset or two for him now? Would be a cheaper addition than some others though and he’s at least an effective reliever. 

Andrew Chafin:

Chafin has been a sneaky good reliever the last few years in Arizona. He doesn’t get a lot of talk, but he’s been solid. Not great but he gets it done. The lefty is controllable through 2020 and could set up a Chafin, Kela and Vazquez tandem with Santana as an option in the backend too next year. Whether the Dbacks trade him or not is a concern but if Ray is available then so should Chafin. Perhaps even Archie Bradley would be available in Arizona. 

Kirby Yates:

This is one the Pirates considered in the past. Just last year, they had real conversations with the Padres about Yates and pairing him with Vazquez. They eventually went for the easier to acquire Kela. Yates has been dominant but at 32 years of age and only controllable through 2020, I think the youthful Padres could be convinced to deal him to get players who can help them in 2021 and beyond where they look like they’ll be in line to really contend, after Yates would be gone. They said they’d need a haul to get him, which should be the case, but I think they can be made flexible here. It’s not like he’s 28 with 4.5 years of pretty cheap control and is the best reliever in the game as a lefty (wonder who that is). 

Point is, Pirates nearly paired Yates with Vazquez last year before settling on Kela. Perhaps they would want to create a big trio this time with Kela, Yates and Vazquez. This would solve the bullpen issues big time. Is it a pipe dream? Almost definitely. But given the Pirates explored it just last season, it can’t be entirely ruled out. In the end, the prospect cost might be way too exuberant for a reliever though. 

The Pirates could be set up to both buy and sell this year. They could re-tool their roster and see if they can find a spark the rest of the year while being set up even better for next year by having controllable pieces, leaving the offseason as a time to just supplement their roster around the edges. 

Pirates trade deadline outlook: If they sell

The Pirates enter play with two weeks to go until the MLB Trade Deadline (now the only one) at 45-49. That’s good for 5.5 out of the division lead and 3.5 out of the WC. They lost their first four out of the break before finally getting in the win column again. 

They are close enough to justify buying at the deadline but can also justify selling with their record and the fact that they are in a crammed NL that has a lot of teams they’d have to leapfrog to get in the playoffs. They are a a good week away from looking like contenders but a bad week away from fading into the depths of the NL. Right now I think they are closer to the latter, but it’s close indeed. 

With justifications to buy, sell or both at the moment, we have to consider all options open for the Pirates the next two weeks. Today, I will look at their options for if they sell. 

Rentals:

The Pirates have quite a few potential rental pieces they can trade away that could help other teams. Nothing too special but some stuff of some value. 

Liriano has been at least a decent lefty reliever this season. While his peripherals don’t look super good, he can still be at least an effective middle reliever for a lot of teams and comes on a cheap deal money-wise. Most contending teams could use that and would be interested in getting Liriano for a lower-end prospect. Could see a reunion with the Twins possible, but the Dodgers, A’s, Red Sox and almost every other contender makes sense. 

Corey Dickerson will also hold some value in the market but rental position players don’t generate the returns they used to. Can’t expect much of a return for him overall. Dickerson also hasn’t had as good of a year as last year and missed a lot of time with injury. But there will be at least some interest there, particularly from possibly the Indians, Twins and Phillies. 

Melky Cabrera is another outfielder on the market the Pirates might look to trade. The veteran has held his own this year and would come to another team on a cheap deal and has the veteran bench presence teams seem to love. That being said, with the health concerns of Polanco, Cabrera could be held rather easily to play alongside Reynolds and Marte or perhaps to spell Jason Martin so he doesn’t get overwhelmed. 

Kang and Lyles might attract niche markets. Kang might attract teams who want a SS/3B bench presence who can provide some power. Perhaps the Rays. Lyles might be seen by some teams as a reliever, similar to how the Astros viewed Liriano in 2017 after he was acquired from the Blue Jays. With the low amount of money Lyles is making, a team could take that chance for a low-tier prospect. 

Non-rentals:

Starling Marte is likely not going anywhere but I think he will draw at least some interest. The problem is that I think he holds more value to the Pirates than anywhere else. Pirates will hold him in much higher regard on value than anyone else will. Nobody will meet that price because nobody else will see Marte like the Pirates do I don’t think. 

There have been real rumors about Vazquez’s availability on the market. It doesn’t seem likely he’ll be dealt, but I suppose it’s possible. 

But given his talent, age and contract, his trade value would be like no reliever we’ve seen on the market recently. He’s the best reliever in the game and the most dominant pitcher the Pirates have had in a long time. Prying him away from the Pirates possibly 4.5 years out from FA (if options are exercised) would require an immense haul like we’ve never seen before. 

There are reasons to trade a reliever for that haul from an analytic standpoint of wanting multiple players at premium positions contributing bigger production as opposed to just one at the reliever position. But after the Gerrit Cole trade, I won’t lie in saying I’m not skeptical whether Huntington can identify that because he tried the same thing with Cole and it hasn’t panned out as hoped. 

The other issue is that I do not think such a stupid big offer would come for a reliever, even one as good as Vazquez. The Dodgers might get desperate enough with Jansen declining and 2 straight WS losses. But the amount of teams with the farm system and desire to trade for Vazquez are limited to perhaps the Dodgers, Astros and maybe the Braves, unless the Padres want to pair him with Yates or the WSox want to accelerate even more for a 2020 run. I just don’t think the offer Huntington would want is going to come, and the Pirates would be okay holding him if it doesn’t. 

I doubt Chris Archer is going anywhere at the deadline just a year after they acquired him. They wouldn’t receive the value back they’d want to pull the plug on their effort that took Glasnow, Meadows and Baz to acquire. 

Everyone else looks locked in for next year but I could see teams at least asking about Josh Bell. In the end though, I don’t see any guys controlled beyond this year going anywhere as the Pirates could be good in 2020 with the right moves.