The Pirates enter play with two weeks to go until the MLB Trade Deadline (now the only one) at 45-49. That’s good for 5.5 out of the division lead and 3.5 out of the WC. They lost their first four out of the break before finally getting in the win column again.
They are close enough to justify buying at the deadline but can also justify selling with their record and the fact that they are in a crammed NL that has a lot of teams they’d have to leapfrog to get in the playoffs. They are a a good week away from looking like contenders but a bad week away from fading into the depths of the NL. Right now I think they are closer to the latter, but it’s close indeed.
With justifications to buy, sell or both at the moment, we have to consider all options open for the Pirates the next two weeks. Today, I will look at their options for if they sell.
Rentals:
The Pirates have quite a few potential rental pieces they can trade away that could help other teams. Nothing too special but some stuff of some value.
Liriano has been at least a decent lefty reliever this season. While his peripherals don’t look super good, he can still be at least an effective middle reliever for a lot of teams and comes on a cheap deal money-wise. Most contending teams could use that and would be interested in getting Liriano for a lower-end prospect. Could see a reunion with the Twins possible, but the Dodgers, A’s, Red Sox and almost every other contender makes sense.
Corey Dickerson will also hold some value in the market but rental position players don’t generate the returns they used to. Can’t expect much of a return for him overall. Dickerson also hasn’t had as good of a year as last year and missed a lot of time with injury. But there will be at least some interest there, particularly from possibly the Indians, Twins and Phillies.
Melky Cabrera is another outfielder on the market the Pirates might look to trade. The veteran has held his own this year and would come to another team on a cheap deal and has the veteran bench presence teams seem to love. That being said, with the health concerns of Polanco, Cabrera could be held rather easily to play alongside Reynolds and Marte or perhaps to spell Jason Martin so he doesn’t get overwhelmed.
Kang and Lyles might attract niche markets. Kang might attract teams who want a SS/3B bench presence who can provide some power. Perhaps the Rays. Lyles might be seen by some teams as a reliever, similar to how the Astros viewed Liriano in 2017 after he was acquired from the Blue Jays. With the low amount of money Lyles is making, a team could take that chance for a low-tier prospect.
Non-rentals:
Starling Marte is likely not going anywhere but I think he will draw at least some interest. The problem is that I think he holds more value to the Pirates than anywhere else. Pirates will hold him in much higher regard on value than anyone else will. Nobody will meet that price because nobody else will see Marte like the Pirates do I don’t think.
There have been real rumors about Vazquez’s availability on the market. It doesn’t seem likely he’ll be dealt, but I suppose it’s possible.
But given his talent, age and contract, his trade value would be like no reliever we’ve seen on the market recently. He’s the best reliever in the game and the most dominant pitcher the Pirates have had in a long time. Prying him away from the Pirates possibly 4.5 years out from FA (if options are exercised) would require an immense haul like we’ve never seen before.
There are reasons to trade a reliever for that haul from an analytic standpoint of wanting multiple players at premium positions contributing bigger production as opposed to just one at the reliever position. But after the Gerrit Cole trade, I won’t lie in saying I’m not skeptical whether Huntington can identify that because he tried the same thing with Cole and it hasn’t panned out as hoped.
The other issue is that I do not think such a stupid big offer would come for a reliever, even one as good as Vazquez. The Dodgers might get desperate enough with Jansen declining and 2 straight WS losses. But the amount of teams with the farm system and desire to trade for Vazquez are limited to perhaps the Dodgers, Astros and maybe the Braves, unless the Padres want to pair him with Yates or the WSox want to accelerate even more for a 2020 run. I just don’t think the offer Huntington would want is going to come, and the Pirates would be okay holding him if it doesn’t.
I doubt Chris Archer is going anywhere at the deadline just a year after they acquired him. They wouldn’t receive the value back they’d want to pull the plug on their effort that took Glasnow, Meadows and Baz to acquire.
Everyone else looks locked in for next year but I could see teams at least asking about Josh Bell. In the end though, I don’t see any guys controlled beyond this year going anywhere as the Pirates could be good in 2020 with the right moves.
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