Pirates Winter Meetings/offseason preview

Every team across the MLB is set to send executives and others to San Diego this week for the MLB Winter Meetings. The Pirates will head there with new people in charge.

With Ben Cherington running things as the general manager and the manager settled in Derek Shelton, the Pirates can finally focus on a plan of attack to get this team back to contention. 

While the Winter Meetings has been relatively quiet over the last couple of years, it might pick up this year if any of the aggressive early-offseason moves teams have made are any indication. 

The Pirates never did too much at the meetings under Neal Huntington but did seemingly always come away with something. And I think there’s a decent chance Ben Cherington makes his first notable transaction as Pirates’ general manager this week in San Diego. It stands to reason he could use the Winter Meetings this week to plant the seeds of his grand design.

But with that in mind, it is unclear exactly what he’ll do. But there are a couple things that seem obvious that’ll be looked into as the week goes on. Let’s outline what some possible moves are for the Pirates at the Winter Meetings. 

Catcher:

There is no position on the Pirates roster more thin and in need of help than catcher. After the non-tender of Elias Diaz, the Pirates find themselves with just one sort of real option in Jacob Stallings. It’s no secret they need a catcher. 

But how they find it will be interesting. The free agent catching market has been moving fast and the Pirates haven’t jumped in yet. And there’s been talk they have been scouring trades for young catchers in a Marte trade (more on that later). 

But there are still some catchers on the free agent market that could be good adds. The main one is Jason Castro. Castro isn’t a top-end player by any means, but he doesn’t have to be. He’s a solid producer nonetheless. He’d be a nice add on a reasonable deal. Another option that would be good would include Chirinos. The 36-year old had a really solid season last year, but at his age, his contract demands won’t be that lofty. Other options include Maldonado, Romine and maybe even a reunion with old friend Russell Martin, though those options are drop offs from Castro and Chrinos. 

Marte trade:

It’s also no secret that the Pirates are likely to trade Marte. Cherington isn’t shying away from it either. He, and everyone else, knows that a Marte trade gives him the best chance to re-stock the farm a bit. And Cherington is a big believer in farm systems. His reputation proves that, especially his time with the Blue Jays. 

Whether that deal comes together this week remains to be seen. But we’ve already seen some OF trades ahead of the Winter Meetings, setting the stage for a Marte trade. 

If Cherington wanted to make a major early impression in Pittsburgh, this is the move he’ll make. Personally, however, I don’t think the trade comes together this week. But the seeds probably get planted for it to happen shortly thereafter. 

Cherington will likely look for a young catcher or a catching prospect in the deal. Other than that, they will likely just look for the best prospects they can get. But I still wouldn’t expect multiple big prospects in the trade. Maybe they can get one, but I doubt multiple. Even in a lackluster OF free agent market, an aging outfielder won’t extract massive value. Good value, sure, but not massive value. 

Add an outfielder:

If Marte gets traded, the Pirates will need an outfielder. Actually let’s be real, they likely need one anyways. Polanco’s health is always a concern and the only other reliable option is Reynolds. 

But as I said, the options in the outfield aren’t great overall. The best free agent outfielder is Marcell Ozuna. I doubt he’s an option to come over from rival Cardinals as he is attached to draft picks after declining a qualifying offer. Plus, his contract demands will be lofty.

It’s likely Reynolds will go to center field, but if not, then the CF market could be of intrigue to the Pirates as defensive wizard Kevin Pillar could be a sneaky nice add at an affordable price. Jarrod Dyson, too. You can even throw Billy Hamilton into the discussion from a pure defensive perspective even if he barely hits his weight. 

But there are plenty of other nice, potentially affordable adds that would be good but not great. Guys like Gordon, Garcia, Maybin make sense. Reunions with Dickerson or Joyce do too. And dare I say Puig could even be an option. 

Pitching:

Pirates need pitching, badly. Getting Santana and Kuhl will help, but that doesn’t mask the losses of Vazquez and Taillon, their two best pitchers. The pitching staff was clearly not up to par and they need to be better. 

I’m not expecting them to shop anywhere close to the top of the market for this, but this could be a great chance for them to try out some under-appreciated guys on cheaper deals to see what works out. I know that sounds like a Huntington thing to do but it actually makes sense to do here. 

Some options that will be affordable as starting pitchers would be Vargas, Gausman, Teheran, Porcello. Or even more affordable options such as Hill, Keuchel, Moore, Buchholz or Ross. 

Some reliever options could be McHugh, Rodney, Jeffress, Sipp, Cishek or even reunions with Hudson or Nicasio. 

Other trade candidates:

Starling Marte isn’t the only more major trade piece the Pirates have. They have several more players that should garner some interest in the market. And I’d assume Cherington will listen. 

These players include Kela, Archer, Williams, Bell, Moran and Frazier. 

Kela and Archer are the most obvious ones. The Pirates two big deadline acquisitions from 2018 could be out the door after just a year and a half in the organization. Particularly, Kela will draw significant interest I think. A free agent after 2020, Kela is a quality late-inning reliever that any contending team would like to have. At worst, he’s probably a set up guy. But he also has plenty of closing experience. If the Pirates have no 2020 contenting aspirations, trading Kela would be a smart move. Archer would be a harder piece to move but still possible if a team thinks they can fix him. However, I think the Pirates will want to try to fix him with a new pitching coach and see what happens themselves. 

Bell will certainly be talked about as well after his breakout 4 months of 2019. Teams are always looking for power like he has and might want him. Given he still has 3 years of control is attractive too, but it’s also reason for the Pirates to keep him. But any team in need of a DH/1B will be calling for sure. Doubt he’s traded this offseason though. 

Williams is a decent back-rotation starter and would be seen as such anywhere. Teams are always looking for guys like that. And with Williams potential upside that he has shown, he’s a better option than many fringe starters you can find. Probably the same reason the Pirates keep him though. 

Frazier could really help a team in many ways. He’s a good player that really made strides on defense and had spells where he hit too. But he might round out to be a part-time starter kind of player. Pirates likely can’t extract the trade value they’d want so he’s likely to stay but I can see some interest.

Moran is in an interesting one. His bat is okay but not that special and his defense isn’t good. And with KeBryan Hayes coming, Moran might be a bench player in Pittsburgh soon. He still holds value though to some teams who need a player that can hit a bit off their bench or in part-time starter roles. Pirates likely won’t deal him though unless they have another stopgap plan at 3rd base until Hayes is ready. 

The truth of the matter is that we have zero clue what Cherington and the new regime is thinking. They could go all kinds of different directions. We can truly only speculate right now. Hopefully the Winter Meetings provide some clarity, If nothing else. It should be an interesting week for the Pirates nonetheless. 

Before all else Pirates must fix coaching staff issues

The Pirates have been mediocre for awhile. But in 2019, they look a tad worse than that. Blame can go everywhere for sure and the team needs help in every aspect. 

However, I think lost in all the talking of changing up the roster for success, we lose sight of a very important aspect where they could improve that may actually be more important. Yes, I’m talking about coaching. 

The Pirates need a near clearing out of this coaching staff and it needs to happen this offseason. 

And it begins at the top with manager Clint Hurdle. I appreciate what Hurdle has done to bring relevancy back to this team but they are now losing that once again as they fall into another pit of despair if things continue this way. Hurdle did a lot of good for the Pirates, but it’s time to move on. The game has passed him by. His voice was refreshing at the beginning of his tenure but now it’s just old and tired. He’s become stale after nearly a decade as Pirates manager (it’s been that long already). 

There needs to be a new voice. They need to do what plenty of other teams have done and get themselves a younger manager that fully embraces all the analytics and is full of charisma that brings added excitement to the clubhouse. Clint Hurdle doesn’t do that as of present and you can tell. A manager like AJ Hinch of the Astros or Alex Cora of the Red Sox just as a few examples (last 2 World Series champion managers by the way). 

But Ray Searage is another major problem. The game has passed him by as well. His philosophy to pitching inside and to contact to get quick outs with the shift took the league by surprise for awhile. But the game has changed since then. Hitters thrive off hitting what the Pirates throw now. Searage hasn’t caught up.

But another thing now plaguing Searage is that Pirates pitchers seem to refuse to listen to him now. Chris Archer has dropped a pitch recently that the Pirates were trying to get him to use more. And apparently Joe Musgrove has become pretty defiant of it too. And Searage recently said he just lets his pitchers throw what they want now. Searage literally can’t get the pitchers to listen to him because they know his recent track record is bad, but Searage doesn’t seem to care either. There’s no leadership amongst the Pirates pitching right now and it’s a mess that needs cleaned up. If Searage isn’t fired after the year, it’s just going to get worse. 

The biggest scar for Searage and the turning point of when it went wrong was Gerrit Cole. Cole thrived early when the league didn’t adjust to what the Pirates pitching strategy was. But when the league caught up, Cole struggled and then was traded. He has thrived in Houston because the Astros have worked on his strengths, which is another Searage issue. He tries to fit every pitcher in a mold instead of identifying what each individual does well. That was where he’s gone wrong, mainly with Cole. But also watching his three biggest failures succeed elsewhere three consecutive years (Morton in 2017, Cole in 2018 and Glasnow in 2019) should be more than enough cause to say that this isn’t the guy I want working with my pitchers anymore. 

The Pirates also need a younger pitching coach that embraces analytics and can identify strengths and weaknesses of each pitcher instead of trying to make each pitcher the same. I don’t want to throw out names but I would love AJ Burnett. However, I doubt he’d embrace analytics after his tirades over the shift. He’d be fiery though and this club needs that. Plus, who wouldn’t want to see that guy back. Everyone in this city loves him. Perhaps he can come on as an assistant or something. I can dream, right. 

This team just basically needs all new coaches altogether. The only major ones worth keeping are the hitting coaches Eckstein and Cruz because they’ve shown tremendous promise for hitters. 

It is clear this team just hasn’t been coached well. The players typically aren’t fundamentally sound and that leads to a lot of errors and a lot of mistakes. And those pile up and wind up costing them way too many games with such a low margin for error. If the players can come in here and learn the basics better and get that under wraps, we’d see a difference. 

Another reason to bring in new coaching is because something isn’t clicking in teaching. You hear constantly about a player that leaves Pittsburgh and is coached by someone else just picking it up easier. It’s either the Pirates aren’t coaching enough or they are just bad at doing it. In any case, something doesn’t get through and communication is poor on this coaching staff. The coaching staff having plenty of older guys can’t help either. There has to be a gap there with that. Bringing in younger and fresher faces, again, would really help bridge this gap I think. 

This coaching staff needs to get new faces, new voices and they need young guys who understand the current game and are going to do the job thoroughly. The Pirates coaching staff now is living in their successes of yesteryear and are kind of just overseeing things more than anything else it seems. It’s time to be done with that and move on. 

There is always talk about what players a team can get to become better, but improving the coaching can make a team way more improved than maybe you’d initially think. And getting a new manager and set of coaches that can liven things up a bit as well can really make all the difference as well. 

New coaches and a new manager being able to work with these players to try to get the most production out of them is what I want to see. I honestly think there’s a lot of untapped potential with a lot of these players that a new staff could be able to squeeze out (like the potential we usually see when a player leaves Pittsburgh). 

You can even see this in practice a bit this year with Eckstein and Cruz, the new hitting coaches. They are younger with more charisma than what they had before with Branson. And they understand the game today more as well. It’s lead to a career year (at least first half) for Josh Bell. It also lead to breakouts from Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds. Colin Moran is hitting better too. Marte is doing some of his best hitting in years too. And Jose Osuna has quietly been very productive at the plate in his role, Jacob Stallings too but to a lesser extent. The point is that this has worked for the Pirates. They are getting more production out of many hitters than they had before. So it’s clear this could work in other areas too. 

If the Pirates want to really contend, they have to start almost anew with the coaching staff and get a new manager. Even if the front office gets premium talent, this staff would ruin them on arrival. Even the most talented teams can’t overcome bad managing and coaching most of the time. A poor staff is going to lead to a poor team much more often than not. 

It’s time to embrace a change to the coaching staff and give this young team a young coaching staff that presents unique ideas and challenges that make the players better and the team better. This team can’t take that next step until that is done. 

5 speculative trade packages for Felipe Vazquez

The Pirates are sitting on the periphery of a playoff spot. The division seems all but a lost cause and the hope for a wildcard is waning by the day. 

The Pirates look like they should focus on selling. While the pending free agents the Pirates have don’t hold great value overall, they do have one player in particular that would bring back enormous value. I’m of course talking about Felipe Vazquez. 

Vazquez has been the subject of trade rumors for now the third consecutive trade deadline with the Pirates. And for good reason. The 28-year old is wasting the prime of his career on a mediocre team that doesn’t have the chance to use him as much as they’d like because they aren’t competitive in enough games for that at present. 

Sure an argument can be made that he is needed if the Pirates are to contend in 2020 and beyond, but I don’t agree. They’ve had him for three years and haven’t done much of anything with him. Would having him in 2020 be any different? Trading Vazquez, however, could be this organization’s best chance to fill the roster with talent and give this team a chance to take that next step. Having a closer like Vazquez, as good as he is, might be a luxury the Pirates just can’t afford given all these other holes on the roster that could easily be filled by bringing back an immense haul for Vazquez. 

At the end of the day, if you can get 2-3 potential legit starters (a combo of pitchers and position players) for a reliever, you take that. Huntington has always found relievers out of the woodwork that have been great for the Pirates. That’s one thing he does well. 

Will the Pirates receive the haul they are looking for to trade him? Probably not. I’ll guess they hold onto him for now, but they’ll listen intently I’m sure. That being said, let’s see what kind of offers could get a deal done for Vazquez. 

Astros:

The Astros are chasing another pennant and could really use that final piece to inject into their young team to get them over the top. Vazquez could easily be that piece. And to nobody’s surprise, they have the pieces to make the deal. 

To Astros:

Felipe Vazquez

To Pirates:

OF Kyle Tucker

RHP Corbin Martin

RHP Bryan Abreu

C Garrett Stubbs

The must-have in this deal would be Kyle Tucker. The guy looks like he’s going to be a superstar in this league. He could easily be Starling Marte’s replacement and then some. Corbin Martin is immediate help to the pitching staff and Garrett Stubbs can provide immediate help to the catching position. Abreu would be the pitching piece for later. This would be a solid deal for the Pirates from both a talent and need standpoint. 

Braves:

The Braves with a legit closer like Vazquez would give the Dodgers a run for pennant favorites in the NL. Inject that young roster with that and watch them win a ton. And their system, as well, is filled with talent.

To Braves:

Felipe Vazquez

To Pirates:

OF Christian Pache

RHP Bryse Wilson 

LHP Kolby Allard 

C Logan Brown

This deal does include some potential help now in the way of Wilson and Allard. Allard, being a lefty, would really help this organization from a need standpoint. The big piece is Pache though. He’s projected to be up next year and he’s on a similar level to Tucker in terms of talent and potential star power. Would be a great add. Logan Brown fills the organization with an additional catching prospect. Would be a good deal for the Pirates as well. 

Dodgers: 

The Dodgers have really been the only team really connected to Vazquez but that doesn’t mean much since the Pirates rumors don’t leak much. But with Jansen struggling a bit, they could really use Vazquez to push a Jansen/Vazquez duo in the 8th and 9th that would cause nightmares. Dodgers have lost two straight World Series and might be desperate to make a huge move. They were connected to Vazquez for awhile now. So is it finally time that comes together?

To Dodgers: 

Felipe Vazquez 

To Pirates:

2B/SS Gavin Lux

C/3B Will Smith

RHP Dustin May

All three of these guys could help very soon and all of them are very talented top prospects. Gavin Lux has crushed AAA and would be the prize of this deal. He can easily be the 2B in Pittsburgh for a long time. Will Smith can fill the catching void instantly. He should certainly come in this deal. Dustin May can easily be a solid 2-3 starter at the major league level, if not more if he figures some things out. Of course, they could get Dodgers top prospect Keibert Ruiz in this deal and he’d fill the void at catcher. But he’s still at least a year away and it might be better value to get Lux instead and then ask for Will Smith on the backend of the deal. This is the best potential deal going for the Pirates in my opinion. 

White Sox:

This one might be a bit puzzling since the White Sox look like sellers. But they should be a contender next year and they may do some offseason shopping this deadline. Vazquez could be on their list, and if they are worried another team will scoop him up this month, they may try for him now. They are the one non-contender I can see going after him given the need and the immense talent in their system.

To White Sox: 

Felipe Vazquez

To Pirates:

RHP Dylan Cease

2B Nick Madrigal

RHP Zack Burdi

The big piece going in the deal from the Sox would be Dylan Cease. Cease was one of the players who went from the Cubs to the White Sox in that Jose Quintana deal. He’d provide immediate rotation help. Plus, trolling the Cubs with him would be fun if he winds up being amazing. Madrigal was one of the steals of the draft a couple of years ago and he has a 2020 ETA. He would be an awesome get for the Pirates in this deal given how good he is and could fill the void at 2B for a long time and soon. The other piece in the deal would be Zack Burdi, Nick Burdi’s brother. That’d be an awesome thing to see and if they both get and stay healthy, they could be dynamite in the bullpen, possibly even one of them replacing Vazquez as closer down the road. Another low-level prospect might have to go to the Pirates in this deal too. 

Twins:

The Twins seem to not want to trade their top prospects, but that was before the Indians started winning a ton and catching up to them a bit. The Twins are no longer safe. They are outplaying metrics and could use another star, especially in that bullpen, to make a run in October and Octobers to come. They could be in position to do what the Indians did in a situation similar a few years prior when they got Andrew Miller. 

To Twins:

Felipe Vazquez

To Pirates:

OF Alex Kirilloff

RHP Brusbar Graterol

LHP Steven Gonsalves

C Ben Rortvedt 

Kirilloff is obviously the prize of this deal. The guy is from the Pittsburgh area and would be on the club at some point next year. The fans would love him. Graterol could help next year too and has excellent potential. Gonsalves is a much-needed lefty for this organization and immediate help. Rortvedt would be a catching prospect for later. 

Would a Vazquez deal look exactly like any of these? I highly doubt it. GMs value different players differently than we do on the outside. But all of these potential deals would be rather nice if Vazquez would get dealt. The best one here I mentioned is the Dodgers one given the combination of immediate help, need and impact. But that Astros offer is a really good one as well. 

Now I doubt Vazquez is dealt, but the Pirates would need immense value coming back to even consider moving him. I don’t think any offers like the ones I mentioned come to Huntington’s ear, but if they do, he has to very much consider it and even probably do it. 

Pirates trade deadline outlook: If they buy

The Pirates left St. Louis with a bad loss to fall to 45-50. But they are still at least in striking distance of the division but more so the wildcard. And while the Pirates begin to look more like sellers everyday, it might not be that simple.

The NL is crammed, and this could lead to some interesting moves, especially with only one trade deadline now. A lot more teams have been open to buying and selling at the same time. And the Pirates are no stranger to this, doing it in 2016 and 2017. Even last year made the big buy moves in July but the sell moves in August came. The NL is set up well for this buy and sell philosophy as teams re-tool and let their young guys get a crack. The Pirates might do this too. They could simultaneously trade the rental pieces but also acquire controllable assets at the same time. 

But what would they need? The answer is obvious. It’s pitching. Getting Kela and Taillon back would help, but they need more than that. Could be another year of getting starting and relief pitching at the deadline. Let’s look at who is out there. 

Starting Pitchers:

Trevor Bauer:

The Indians are in the thick of the AL Central race but have concerns over long-term success and payroll. The time may be just ripe for them to trade Bauer. Waiting until the offseason might hurt the value and market for him as the acquiring team wouldn’t have him for the extra playoff push and the Indians’ desperation to move him would grow larger. His salary for next year, his final year of arbitration, could approach $20M. 

Bauer is an interesting case, however. At 28 years old, he has never thrown 200 innings in any season and was kind of only an okay mid-rotation type until last season where he pitched like an ace. However, this season, he has regressed again and actually a good bit. His ERA is nearly 1.50 runs higher and his FIP is over 2 runs higher. He is also projected to finish well short of his outstanding 5.8 WAR number from last year. He’s been good but not great this season. 

His salary could be intrusive for the Pirates payroll plus he said he wouldn’t sign long-term anywhere but instead a bunch of 1-year deals. He’s good but might not be dealt until the offseason and more likely than not the Pirates won’t give up the prospects or want to pay his contract next year. This is especially true given his inconsistent performance the last couple of years. You don’t know if you’ll get the ace Bauer or the middle-rotation version of Bauer. The latter isn’t worth the money and we’ve only seen the former for one season out of six. Risky gamble. 

Marcus Stroman:

Stroman is a decent middle of the rotation starter that is controlled through next year. His salary will be high but not absurdly so as super 2 in his fourth arbitration year. But his peripherals aren’t terrific and his injury issues are a huge concern as well. They don’t need to mess up a bigger trade again by acquiring a big name that might not deliver enough production-wise. 

Robbie Ray:

It’s no secret that the Pirates have long liked Robbie Ray. He’s not a great starter but he can get the job done. And the Diamondbacks have made him available despite chasing a playoff berth again. He is controlled through next year at what should be a reasonable rate. 

Would the Diamondbacks really trade him to a team chasing them in the standings in a crammed race though? If they think it won’t make a difference, perhaps. But we’ll see. He would have a year and a half of control and would solidify a rotation. Plus, the Pirates like him and have for awhile. Remember, they liked Archer for a long time before acquiring him too. 

Mike Minor:

Mike Minor looks like a likely candidate to be traded, even as the Rangers chase a playoff berth. They realize his value in a trade may never be higher than now. His injury history and possible regression might lead to a trade here. For what it’s worth he’s not a bad pitcher and at $9M a year, he’s a good value at that price even if he regresses a bit. He’s also controllable through 2020. 

But the injuries and regression are an issue that might keep some teams away and the Pirates might be more risk adverse after last year. He is a quality lefty that is not making a ton of money overall. Might be worth the gamble depending on the price. 

Jon Gray:

The Rockies are sliding bad right now, so the playoff team from last year may be looking to unload a bit. Jon Gray might be an option here. Gray has held his own well in the majors despite pitching a lot in Coors Field. The former top 5 pick could be even better outside of Colorado.

The issue is that he is still under team control for awhile and the Rockies have a nice core that had made the playoffs the last two years. This recent slide might not change that. Rockies might need an unreasonable haul to move him right now, something the Pirates can ill-afford. 

Relief Pitchers:

Ken Giles:

Giles has dealt with some injuries this year, but he might be looking a bit like the Giles of old again and the rebuilding Blue Jays could capitalize on that. The righty with some nasty stuff would make an awesome compliment to Vazquez for the rest of this year and next year, and could set up a backend next year involving Giles, Santana, Kela and Vazquez. Could be near unbeatable if Crick regains form and Rodriguez continues what he’s been doing. 

Mychal Givens:

Givens has been up and down this year. But he had some good years in the past that suggest he can get it back. The Orioles may not trade him at a low value like this though, especially when they control him through 2021 and can wait to see if he bounces back and trade him then instead. If he’s available though, a buy-low opportunity could be there. 

Shawn Kelley:

Kelley has never been a great reliever but he can get the job done. If the Rangers have Minor out there, Kelley could be too. They signed him to an absurdly cheap contract with a no-risk and cheap club option for 2020. 

Problem is the Pirates could have had him for almost nothing this offseason and didn’t seem to want him. Why would they want to give up an asset or two for him now? Would be a cheaper addition than some others though and he’s at least an effective reliever. 

Andrew Chafin:

Chafin has been a sneaky good reliever the last few years in Arizona. He doesn’t get a lot of talk, but he’s been solid. Not great but he gets it done. The lefty is controllable through 2020 and could set up a Chafin, Kela and Vazquez tandem with Santana as an option in the backend too next year. Whether the Dbacks trade him or not is a concern but if Ray is available then so should Chafin. Perhaps even Archie Bradley would be available in Arizona. 

Kirby Yates:

This is one the Pirates considered in the past. Just last year, they had real conversations with the Padres about Yates and pairing him with Vazquez. They eventually went for the easier to acquire Kela. Yates has been dominant but at 32 years of age and only controllable through 2020, I think the youthful Padres could be convinced to deal him to get players who can help them in 2021 and beyond where they look like they’ll be in line to really contend, after Yates would be gone. They said they’d need a haul to get him, which should be the case, but I think they can be made flexible here. It’s not like he’s 28 with 4.5 years of pretty cheap control and is the best reliever in the game as a lefty (wonder who that is). 

Point is, Pirates nearly paired Yates with Vazquez last year before settling on Kela. Perhaps they would want to create a big trio this time with Kela, Yates and Vazquez. This would solve the bullpen issues big time. Is it a pipe dream? Almost definitely. But given the Pirates explored it just last season, it can’t be entirely ruled out. In the end, the prospect cost might be way too exuberant for a reliever though. 

The Pirates could be set up to both buy and sell this year. They could re-tool their roster and see if they can find a spark the rest of the year while being set up even better for next year by having controllable pieces, leaving the offseason as a time to just supplement their roster around the edges. 

Pirates trade deadline outlook: If they sell

The Pirates enter play with two weeks to go until the MLB Trade Deadline (now the only one) at 45-49. That’s good for 5.5 out of the division lead and 3.5 out of the WC. They lost their first four out of the break before finally getting in the win column again. 

They are close enough to justify buying at the deadline but can also justify selling with their record and the fact that they are in a crammed NL that has a lot of teams they’d have to leapfrog to get in the playoffs. They are a a good week away from looking like contenders but a bad week away from fading into the depths of the NL. Right now I think they are closer to the latter, but it’s close indeed. 

With justifications to buy, sell or both at the moment, we have to consider all options open for the Pirates the next two weeks. Today, I will look at their options for if they sell. 

Rentals:

The Pirates have quite a few potential rental pieces they can trade away that could help other teams. Nothing too special but some stuff of some value. 

Liriano has been at least a decent lefty reliever this season. While his peripherals don’t look super good, he can still be at least an effective middle reliever for a lot of teams and comes on a cheap deal money-wise. Most contending teams could use that and would be interested in getting Liriano for a lower-end prospect. Could see a reunion with the Twins possible, but the Dodgers, A’s, Red Sox and almost every other contender makes sense. 

Corey Dickerson will also hold some value in the market but rental position players don’t generate the returns they used to. Can’t expect much of a return for him overall. Dickerson also hasn’t had as good of a year as last year and missed a lot of time with injury. But there will be at least some interest there, particularly from possibly the Indians, Twins and Phillies. 

Melky Cabrera is another outfielder on the market the Pirates might look to trade. The veteran has held his own this year and would come to another team on a cheap deal and has the veteran bench presence teams seem to love. That being said, with the health concerns of Polanco, Cabrera could be held rather easily to play alongside Reynolds and Marte or perhaps to spell Jason Martin so he doesn’t get overwhelmed. 

Kang and Lyles might attract niche markets. Kang might attract teams who want a SS/3B bench presence who can provide some power. Perhaps the Rays. Lyles might be seen by some teams as a reliever, similar to how the Astros viewed Liriano in 2017 after he was acquired from the Blue Jays. With the low amount of money Lyles is making, a team could take that chance for a low-tier prospect. 

Non-rentals:

Starling Marte is likely not going anywhere but I think he will draw at least some interest. The problem is that I think he holds more value to the Pirates than anywhere else. Pirates will hold him in much higher regard on value than anyone else will. Nobody will meet that price because nobody else will see Marte like the Pirates do I don’t think. 

There have been real rumors about Vazquez’s availability on the market. It doesn’t seem likely he’ll be dealt, but I suppose it’s possible. 

But given his talent, age and contract, his trade value would be like no reliever we’ve seen on the market recently. He’s the best reliever in the game and the most dominant pitcher the Pirates have had in a long time. Prying him away from the Pirates possibly 4.5 years out from FA (if options are exercised) would require an immense haul like we’ve never seen before. 

There are reasons to trade a reliever for that haul from an analytic standpoint of wanting multiple players at premium positions contributing bigger production as opposed to just one at the reliever position. But after the Gerrit Cole trade, I won’t lie in saying I’m not skeptical whether Huntington can identify that because he tried the same thing with Cole and it hasn’t panned out as hoped. 

The other issue is that I do not think such a stupid big offer would come for a reliever, even one as good as Vazquez. The Dodgers might get desperate enough with Jansen declining and 2 straight WS losses. But the amount of teams with the farm system and desire to trade for Vazquez are limited to perhaps the Dodgers, Astros and maybe the Braves, unless the Padres want to pair him with Yates or the WSox want to accelerate even more for a 2020 run. I just don’t think the offer Huntington would want is going to come, and the Pirates would be okay holding him if it doesn’t. 

I doubt Chris Archer is going anywhere at the deadline just a year after they acquired him. They wouldn’t receive the value back they’d want to pull the plug on their effort that took Glasnow, Meadows and Baz to acquire. 

Everyone else looks locked in for next year but I could see teams at least asking about Josh Bell. In the end though, I don’t see any guys controlled beyond this year going anywhere as the Pirates could be good in 2020 with the right moves.