The MLB trade deadline is fast approaching as we are now within three weeks to go until the big day on August 1. This is always an exciting time of year as we find out who is doing what and how the landscape of the league changes and the playoff picture comes into focus.
The Pirates are in an interesting spot as they will come out of the break at 41-49 and 8 out of a wildcard spot and 8.5 out of the division lead. They have really faded since about the middle of June but since the big 20-8 start, they are just 21-41. This is hardly a team that looks like one that should be buyers this year. However, if they can somehow come out of the break hot for a week or so and maybe trim the deficit to 4 or 5 games, the outlook could perhaps change.
However, even if they are sellers, which is what appears should happen, they seem to be past the point of the big sell offs in a rebuild kind of fashion. It is more likely they will just sell off short-term assets with no future on the team weather than any more big wholesale changes. All in all, this is a total preview of the kinds of players they could look to trade with the assumption they are sellers this month.
Andrew McCutchen:
McCutchen returning to Pittsburgh has been a jolt of energy to the team, even if they still lack the talent to compete just yet. His influence is still felt and his presence in Pittsburgh is felt too. The Pirates would be foolish to trade him despite it maybe being the best thing for them on paper. Cutch should remain a Pirate as long as he plays. The only thing that would change this is if he goes to the front office with a demand to go to a contender but I can’t imagine that given how much he’s stated he wants to be in Pittsburgh. I do not envision him being dealt. I don’t think that’s the message this front office wants to send now as they approach the next step of competing. He has a better chance of re-signing with the Pirates or getting an extension done with them prior to free agency this winter, or he retires.
Carlos Santana:
There is still some value to Santana. He offers a little bit with that bat with some pop still and spurts of brilliance at the plate. What he does bring is plus defense at a tough position that is 1st base. He can also DH of course. He was brought in to platoon but has become a guy who has held his own as an everyday player when asked to be. Not that they’d get a ton for Santana but he’s a guy you certainly listen on and really possibly deal away. They could keep him for the culture he’s helped install and 1st base has been a barren wasteland for the Pirates that he’s at least provided a decent stopgap for so there’s internal value to that which could exceed the possible return in a trade.
Ji-Man Choi:
Sticking with the 1B/DH theme, Choi was brought in to platoon with Santana, maybe even take most of the starts as the lefty bat. He got injured early on and just came back. He will have a little bit of time to prove his value to a contender prior to the deadline. I think he has a likelier chance of being dealt than Santana if I had an uneducated guess on the subject. He isn’t as ingrained as Santana with the culture aspect and he might provide more value in just what he does for a contender possibly off the bench or as a DH type.
Rich Hill:
Hill is an interesting one as he’s had an up and down season. It hasn’t been great for him lately. Regardless he is a veteran lefty backend rotation starter and that does become valuable to contenders this time of year. This could be the third straight year they flip the lefty starter they signed in the offseason (probably was the point of signing all of them anyways). Hill might be a little rich for what he is though as he signed an $8M contract. The Pirates might have to eat some or all of his remaining salary to facilitate a trade and maximize the return. I think that shouldn’t be an issue, at least we hope.
Connor Joe:
Could Joe’s second stint with the team be cut so short? Possibly. Joe likely isn’t a starting level guy in many places (including the Pirates), he has some value as a bench bat and occasional starter. He can hit lefties well and that has some value. I ultimately do not think he’ll get traded because he still has so much contract left. He’s not a free agent until 2028 and the Pirates are still in position where they could use him considering some of their depth issues at the plate. He’s maybe a more valuable piece on this team than he would be on a contender right now. I don’t rule out trading him though.
Mitch Keller:
This one has almost no chance of happening but the Pirates will definitely get calls. Keller has emerged as a very good MLB pitcher capable of anchoring a rotation. He isn’t a true ace but not many are. There’d be teams lining up to acquire Keller if he were truly available. A very good, controllable arm like him that can slot in as a number 2 or high-end number 3 on a contender would bring high value back to the Pirates in this market that is going to he starving for pitching like this. The Pirates need Keller just the same though. He is a foundational piece to this rotation that is about to be infused with young pitching where he will suddenly be the veteran mentor and his experience and journey as a big leaguer will be really valuable to them. Plus he obviously can provide on the field in a big way too if this season is any indication.
David Bednar:
I say it every year. An elite reliever on a bad team is simply a luxury but to a contender, it’s a necessary given how stretch runs and postseason baseball work. Every team needs it. Bednar would be perhaps the most valuable reliever on the market if he were available and with the Pirates likely not contending again, maybe he would be. Most likely not though. The Pirates haven’t traded him yet with chances the last two years to after the broke out as one of the best relievers in the league. If they haven’t yet, they won’t now. Not with their sights clearly set on contending in 2024 and beyond. If that is their plan, he will be a vital piece to the bullpen to build around instead of trading him away and possibly struggling ti replace him in a year they hope to compete. He will become more valuable to them than he’s worth in a trade if he’s pitching in games for them in a contending year.
However, I feel like trading a reliever for multiple potential pieces that can help in other valuable areas is something to always be considered. While I do not see a team meeting the Pirates threshold to make the trade happen, what if one does? What if a team gives up a higher-end prospect that’s close to MLB-ready at an area the Pirates are lacking? I think that’s what it would take. Would the Pirates move him? Maybe given the positional value. The Pirates have always seemed to have a quality closer. It just happens. Maybe that’s just what this organization excels at finding.
The issue is that the bullpen they have built right now leaves a lot to be desired and Bednar is a saving grace of it. To trade him would mean leaving a major hole in probably their weakest area. They’d have to really get a ton for him and have a quality plan to fix the bullpen once and for all this upcoming winter, which they need anyways but would need even more help there without Bednar.
One other question is whether the Pirates would shop for a controllable asset at the deadline regardless of position in the standings. Maybe they want to do some offseason shopping early for a player with control and also with the upside of help now too if they even stay on the fringes of contention. It’s possible but I don’t see it as likely.
The reason is that it looks like an extreme seller’s market is developing. Paying the prices it’d take to get any controllable asset is going to be tough to justify at this rate. The prices usually drop in the winter when the market is more saturated with options and the ‘trade deadline tax’ no longer applies. The issue is some available players now may not be available in the winter if they get traded now. If the Pirates identify a certain player they want now and feel it’s now or never to get that player, they could make that move. I don’t see it though.
If the Pirates somehow make a run to become buyers, this conversation will change. For now, the expectation would be that they sell some of their short-term assets but the long-term guys stay put. I’d imagine that is how it’ll play out by the August 1 deadline.
No comments:
Post a Comment