As the dust has settled on the draft, one of the bigger conversations now is how the 49ers QB situation will play out now that Trey Lance is in tow with Jimmy Garoppolo still around. Conventional wisdom suggests Garoppolo is the guy for now, but we really don’t know how long that’ll be. So the question has become more about when Lance will start.
The easy answer is “when he’s ready.” Everyone says that, but what does that mean? That concept is always so abstract. Nobody truly knows what it means. It means something different to everyone. And I believe nobody is truly ready to do anything until they do it, so it’s worthless to say it anyways.
What would “ready” mean for Shanahan anyways? Would it mean “can run the offense as well as Garoppolo?” Would it be when he feels he’s surpassed Garoppolo? We don’t know. What we do know is Shanahan threw a rookie in Robert Griffin III out there as a rookie and won 9 games with him playing well. Also threw Garoppolo in after a mid-season acquisition where he got only a month to try to absorb as much of a complex system as possible. He wound up running a watered down version of the offense at the end of 2017. They won all 5 games. Shanahan clearly isn’t afraid to be aggressive with letting guys play despite not fully grasping the offense.
But it’s not so black and white here. This situation is nuanced given all the circumstances that have gotten us to this point.
Trey Lance is a unique player in the fact he only started 17 career collegiate games at the FCS level and also didn’t play in 2020 outside of a weird showcase game that had to do with scholarships or something. It was a crapshoot game too that hardly matters. These things do factor into the equation.
By the time the season starts, Lance would have only played in that one weird game of football over the last almost two years. Is the solution to sitting that long and not playing to sit more and not play games? That’s a hard one that’ll need figured out. Lance will need real game reps ASAP or else you risk rotting him. There’s a fine line between developing and rotting.
While he started only 17 games at the FCS level, there is enough evidence to suggest that a low amount of collegiate starts doesn’t directly mean the guy is a “super raw” prospect. Mac Jones has the same amount and was seen as the most polished guy besides Lawrence in the class. And there are enough quality FCS QBs over the years to suggest that guys can play at that level. It’s a tough step up, but not an impossible one clearly.
There are some things working for Lance though. First, he ran quite possibly the most complex offense college football has to offer. He is super smart and absorbs info really well. His mental ability in the game is off the charts. I have no doubt he’ll be able to pick up the play book faster than most anyone else.
Secondly, he’s more talented than Garoppolo and he expands offensive capabilities. It’s hard to keep that guy on the bench too long. It puts the 49ers at a severe competitive disadvantage.
While not really an issue for the 49ers specifically right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract is also a competitive disadvantage at this time. Meanwhile, one of the most valuable parts of a young QB is their cheap rookie contract. You have to take every advantage you can while you have the guy at that price. If you don’t, it’s malpractice.
Another thing is that the 49ers effectively spent three 1st rounders on Trey Lance. It was a hefty price to pay. I find it really hard to justify spending that much and then sitting him for awhile. It’s just poor value to spend that much then not maximize the initial contract as much as you can. Like buying a car but not driving it for awhile but still making payments on it while you drive your old junker. Makes little sense.
So as we see, there are a lot of things that factor into this whole thing. It’s not so easy to decipher when the time will be when Lance will become the starter. We really can’t. We definitely can’t in May. We might not even know in August. It’ll be one of those “when you know, you know” things. Everyone will sense it. It’ll be obvious when it’s going to happen.
Ideally, you want that to happen in week 1. I wouldn’t rule it out, but I also think it’s unlikely. With the way Lance is though, he has an outside chance of learning it all, doing it all and at least getting to a place where he can compete right away.
I think more realistic is that he’ll take over sometime during the season. Could be week 6, could be week 10. Who knows. I just don’t think it’s going to take him a ton of time to get his chance. At the latest, he’s starting for this team week 1 in 2022. There is no chance he’s waiting longer than that for his turn.
But the decision on this won’t have to happen right away. The 49ers are in a spot where they can play it right. If Lance is “ready” week 1, great! If not, no big deal. It’ll happen when it happens. The 49ers do have to be careful not to be too cute with it though and wait too long. They have to find the right time, but honestly more often than not, the right time finds teams. Just ask the Chargers last year with Herbert.
My personal thought is he’ll take over this season for them. I don’t know when, but I just feel that’s inevitable. He’s too talented and too smart to be kept down long. Sooner rather than later, he’s going to get into position where he pushes Garoppolo out. This isn’t atypical. It’s just the nature of this. He’ll learn the playbook at blazing speed and he will show all his talent in practice where people watching just know what’s about to happen. It won’t happen all at once where one day it’s just an epiphany. It’ll be a process of things that leads to them knowing it’s time, and I think it’ll happen this season.
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