The 49ers go into the offseason with the 28th most cap space in the NFL. This is a drastic change from where they had been the last few seasons where they had among the most.
The 49ers have priorities this offseason to re-sign Armstead and even maybe Sanders and Ward, while also working something out with Kittle and Buckner as both will be free agents after the season.
The $13M of cap space they have won’t be anywhere near enough to get it all done, even with how good they structure deals.
So I do expect we will see some cuts, perhaps some surprising ones too. So let’s look at some potential cap casualties, whether in cuts or trades. Some of these will be obvious, some not so much.
Marquise Goodwin:
Goodwin was one of this regime’s first signings and it did pan out well for a bit. But he’s had injury issues and has fallen out of favor in this WR group now since it’s gotten way better since back when Goodwin was added. He just doesn’t fit much now.
Shanahan has already said they won’t just cut him so a trade is likely, and there are interested teams. They wouldn’t get a ton in a trade but the cap savings of almost $4M would be nice to have. The draft pick would be a bonus.
A running back:
There is no reason for the 49ers to carry 5 RBs. They have Mostert, Coleman, Breida, Wilson and will get McKinnon back. Mostert has emerged as the top back and I think he’s the only one safe in this group.
Coleman was fine but nothing special. For $4M he’s probably still worth it. They could save $4M by cutting or trading him though.
Breida has had ankle injuries and a fumbling problem. He has lost a lot of the faith of the coaching staff as Shanahan hardly played him late in the season, even when healthy. They can save about $2M by cutting or trading him.
McKinnon was given that huge deal and hasn’t even played for the 49ers in two years since. I don’t think he’s needed anymore. A cut of him would save the 49ers about $4.5M. Though they may try to restructure his deal into a deal like Ward had last year. A one-year prove your healthy and can play sort of deal. That would save the 49ers some money too if they wanted to keep him.
I think there’s a chance two of these guys are dealt or cut. Shanahan usually only played Coleman and either Mostert or Breida all year and was successful. I think they could get rid of Breida and McKinnon and be fine. Wilson would be a fine third back for this team and RBs are a dime a dozen for the Shanahan scheme as it makes any back good. No need to carry 4 backs again, even as Mostert continues to play special teams too. They could save upwards to $6M by ridding themselves of those two. Would be a big chunk of space. Though, there is also a chance they restructure McKinnon then cut Coleman too in order to get around $7-8M total in extra cap space instead of the about $4.5M they’d get by just cutting McKinnon. The maneuver would be very risky though given that McKinnon hasn’t seen game action in two years and Coleman is a much better bet for the price.
Mike Person:
This one is possible but not likely. Person doesn’t make a lot of money and is a fine offensive lineman. They would be hard pressed to find his production on the market for less and drafting the position is tough, especially with no current day 2 draft picks.
Jaquiski Tartt:
Tartt is a really good safety and is a big part of the defense so I doubt this happens, but it’s possible. But with Ward hitting free agency, I doubt they’d want to rework their whole safety group. Without Ward and Tartt, they’d have Harris and whoever they’d draft at safety starting. Wouldn’t be bad, but I don’t think cutting or trading Tartt is necessary. It would save about $6M in cap space though.
Dee Ford:
This one sounds crazy at first but maybe not so much once you consider it a bit. Dee Ford is a great player but was hurt a ton last year and didn’t play even close to many snaps. He’s had injury issues his whole career and is hard to rely on, even though he’s incredible when healthy. Committing to him long-term might be tough, even if he makes that pass rush better. If cutting or trading him helps us keep Armstead and Buckner though, you have to make that move.
I’d love to keep the big 4 together, but it might be unrealistic. The move would save a lot of cap space over multiple years and would give the 49ers cap flexibility to perhaps keep Armstead and Buckner and at least keep them and Bosa together. Most teams don’t even have three on the line that good. Having all four would be great, but again, it just might not be possible.
Ford is the most oft-injured of the big four and is the most inconsistent and overall unreliable. Nothing against Ford, but if I had to pick one of them to get rid of, it’d be Ford and keep Bosa, Buckner and Armstead. With Blair, Thomas, Jones, Day and Taylor, I think it’d still be a lethal pass rush with the big three. Remember, they still played well last year even without Ford for 5 games and most of a 6th game as well.
Jimmy Garoppolo:
I know......... I know. But with the rumors that are swirling, I have to at least discuss it. The rumor that Shanahan has concerns about Garoppolo needs to be considered. And the fact they built the Garoppolo deal to easily be gotten out of after two years if Shanahan felt it necessary is key too.
This doesn’t have to just be connected to Brady or another free agent QB, or even a QB on the trade market. It could be Mullens or a draft QB too. I don’t know what Shanahan would want if not Garoppolo.
What I do know is that getting rid of Garoppolo would save the 49ers upwards to $22M in cap space. That money could go a long way in helping out other areas, especially if they’d go with a cheaper option at QB that Shanahan likes more.
I don’t think whatever they’d get with that money would be more valuable than Garoppolo, especially when having to make a quarterback change too. But if Shanahan likes another QB better, then trading Garoppolo, which would also net him a good return, would give them flexibility to get some things done in free agency and/or to work things out with some of their other players.
Out of all these, I see Goodwin certainly going. And I could easily see two RBs gone too. I don’t see Person or Tartt as legitimate cap casualties. Ford is not likely, but it’s possible in this trying cap time for the 49ers. And getting rid of Garoppolo is not very much likely at all unless Shanahan is thinking about going a different direction there, which would surprise many.
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