Joe Musgrove is the x-factor in the Pirates rotation

The strength of the Pirates team going into the 2019 appears to be the rotation. The group lead by Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer looks to give the Pirates a decent chance to win many nights. Many people think the Pirates rotation could be the most underrated one in the majors and could sneak up on people this year. 

It’s reasonable to expect Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer will be very productive amongst this group at the top, but I think there is one guy in the middle of the rotation that will wind up mattering a lot to the success or otherwise of this rotation. And that guy is Joe Musgrove.

Musgrove, 26, was acquired by the Pirates along with Colin Moran, Michael Feliz and Jason Martin in the Gerrit Cole trade with Houston last offseason. 

Last season, Musgrove was used as a starter for the Pirates after being relegated to the bullpen in Houston thanks to their surplus of starters at the time. Musgrove was pretty good for the Pirates too. He pitched to a 4.06 ERA/3.59 FIP and was worth 2.1 WAR. However, one problem that plagued him was health. He went on the DL a few different times with various injuries, before the season and throughout it as well, that held him to only 115.1 innings pitched. 

So while Musgrove is not an unknown entirely, it is still very difficult to pinpoint exactly what production he will bring. The injury troubles of last year certainly become a concern, and whether he can even pitch 170-180 innings this season come up as well if he gets to that point in September where he may need to be shutdown. And of course with players of his age with relatively minimal major league success, you wonder whether or not he can sustain success. 

If some of the metrics work to Musgrove’s favor this season and he is healthy, he can easily be the third piece to a really good trio with Taillon and Archer. However, there are certainly enough roadblocks to that happening that it can’t be a reasonable expectation he even gets to that point in 2019. If he does, the rotation will be in great shape. If not, the rotation might wind up being more middle of the pack than anything. And that is the exact reason as to why I think Joe Musgrove is a very important piece to this rotation as his production or lack thereof could swing the rotation from being either great or just slightly better than decent.