The Pirates added a major piece to their rotation by acquiring righty Chris Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays. Their rotation is now lead by Taillon, Archer and Musgrove. With this trade for Archer, the Pirates have set up a situation where their rotation could be elite. Let’s look at the options.
First, let’s talk about the new guy Chris Archer. Archer brings with him an outstanding pedigree, and he can still pitch very well. His underlying numbers suggest he’ll improve and a move out of the AL East and into the NL will really help his numbers as he won’t have to face offensive juggernauts like the Red Sox or Yankees as often and he won’t have to see the DH as much either. Given all this, it’s fair to suggest Archer could step into this rotation and be very good. Ace like? Now that may be a stretch, but I think he’ll be very good.
Now let’s talk about some of the guys that are already here.
Firstly, Jameson Taillon. Despite adding Archer, I still think Taillon is the team’s best starting pitcher. I don’t understand the stigma about him. He may be a bit inconsistent at times, but so are many guys (actually including Archer). It’s hard to pitch well every time out there. Taillon has put up nothing but terrific numbers the whole time he’s been around, which is starting to get to be a fair bit of time now. He has a career 3.58 FIP and has already been worth 6.7 WAR in just 65 MLB starts (equivalent to about 2 seasons of starts so he’s ~ a 3.5 WAR pitcher). We often forget that Taillon was held back by injuries and cancer and is still settling in. It’s easy to forget he is only in his second full season and even last season was somewhat lost for him. He’s only getting better as he goes and he could be an ace very soon. If not, he’s a very solid number 2 starter, and that’s actually not so bad.
Next is Joe Musgrove. I think Musgrove will be the best piece of that Gerrit Cole trade. Despite being on the DL twice, Musgrove has been reliable when he’s been out there. We are starting to see that potential he had when he was a highly-rated prospect in Houston. Like Taillon, it’s easy to forget how early in the career of Musgrove we are, especially since he was stuck in the bullpen in Houston for awhile. Also like Taillon, he will continue to improve as he goes along. His stuff and his array of pitches gives him ace-like potential. I don’t think he’ll be an ace, but his ability and competitive spirit intrigues me into thinking there’s a chance he could be. But again, if not, being a very good number 2 starter isn’t so bad.
Those three guys look like anchors for the rotation for the next few years, but that’s not where the rotation potential ends. There’s still other options. Some that are on the team now and some that are in AAA. Let’s first continue to talk about the guys that are here.
I’ll begin with Nova. He’s not in the future plans of the rotation in my opinion and shouldn’t be. He’s a decent, durable back of the rotation starter but with younger options available, I think the Pirates part ways with Nova this offseason to give a younger, more upside guys a chance.
Next is Trevor Williams. He’s intriguing. He doesn’t throw hard or try to trick you, but he gets the job done. He’s a younger, upgraded version of Nova. He’s a solid backend starter, but I don’t think he has the upside of some of the other guys the team has. Though, if he continues to pitch decently, he’ll force the issue.
The next guy to talk about is Chad Kuhl. Kuhl is such an intriguing arm with so much potential but not the numbers to match. Like some of the other starters, he’s been a decent backend guy, but his ceiling is higher than that of the rest of these guys. His arm talent is really good and if he can learn to utilize his pitches better, he could be a really solid mid-rotation starter in the majors, which would be a huge boost to the Pirates. His upside probably gives him a longer leash than other guys.
There’s a lot of talk that Chad Kuhl could be a great bullpen arm, and I suppose it’s possible that he could become that if he doesn’t perform, given the rotation depth. However, I still think of him as a starting pitcher. Though, if he can be a dominate bullpen arm like an Archie Bradley type, that’d be a huge boost too.
Nick Kingham is next. He’s had mixed results in the MLB but hasn’t been as good in his second stint as he was in his first stint. He’s 26 and just a rookie (he lost two years due to injuries). The main thing to like about Kingham is that he is a good control pitcher (though that hasn’t shown as well in the MLB). None of his pitches seem to be superb plus pitches and he pitches to contact a lot. I just don’t think he has enough intriguing about him to break the Pirates rotation long-term. But again, if he pitches well, he can force the issue.
Then there’s Clay Holmes. There’s intriguing stuff about him and his one good start in the MLB says something, but I don’t think he has a future in the Pirates major league rotation. I think he could be a solid reliever, but that may be it. I don’t see a high ceiling for Holmes, but he has some intriguing stuff I won’t lie. I just don’t think he has enough to break into this rotation long term. Maybe another rotation can give him the opportunity.
Steven Brault is often forgot about as he’s been buried in the bullpen. The one thing he has to his credit is that he throws the ball with his left hand, which is something the other guys don’t do. I don’t think he’s an option for a long-term rotation spot, but he’ll get his looks as a lefty I’m sure. The problem with Brault is that he’s not a control pitcher or a power pitcher. He doesn’t have much going for him.
There are other options in AAA such as Brubaker, McRae, Eppler and Sadler, but I don’t think any of those are future rotation guys. The other AAA guy that’s intriguing in this group is Brandon Waddell. He is a LHP like Brault so I’m sure he’ll get a look at some point. I just don’t think he’ll make it. He’s been better this season than previous seasons, but he might still be just a guy as well.
Then there is the big one: Mitch Keller. Keller is the Pirates top prospect and one of the best prospects in baseball. The righty has struggled a bit in AAA but that just comes with the development process (we hope). I think he’ll settle in and be fine. I project he will be a huge part of this rotation starting in June or July of 2019.
One thing the Pirates have is a lot of rotation depth. They have as many as 5 or 6 options outside the top 5 that they can go to just in case things aren’t working out. But with the Archer deal, they do what they needed to and that’s add to the top of the rotation. They have a solid top 3 now with Taillon, Archer and Musgrove to go along with that depth. They have a trio of very solid starters to build around, which they haven’t had before when they’ve had two at best. They just need 2 of the 7 or 8 guys guys behind the top 3 to work out as back of the rotation guys. And if Keller is even half of what he’s supposed to be, that means only one of the other guys has to work out. Suffice to say that the Pirates have put themselves in a good spot with their rotation both at the top of the rotation and they depth of the rotation at the backend.
I project the Pirates rotation when Keller gets to Pittsburgh will be Taillon, Archer, Musgrove, Keller and Kuhl. Until then, I expect Williams will get starts and maybe he beats out Kuhl for the final spot once Keller arrives. Also, there’s always injuries that occur and maybe Keller takes longer to get here than we think. So it’s always good to have that extra depth.
That being said, there’s at least a decent chance they trade at least a bit from their starter depth at offseason roster crunch time. I expect they’ll trade Nova to a team in need of a durable backend rotation arm that has weak rotation depth. I also could see guys like Kingham or Holmes being dealt, but likely not both. They might also use some of this depth to help the bullpen, though the pen has some depth of its own that’ll need to be dealt with as well.
The starting pitching position for the Pirates is a nice area of strength for the team after adding Archer. As I said before, they now have more talent at the top part of the rotation and they continue to have a nice amount of depth to pull from to fill out the backend of the rotation.
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