The bullpen dominoes are ready to fall

The Pirates signed right-handed reliever Daniel Hudson to a 2-year deal worth $11M with incentives for games finished on Monday. The deal was confirmed by Hudson himself on twitter but not by the Pirates just yet as they go through the final details to finalize the deal, and confirmation on that end should come very soon. With Daniel Hudson aboard for the Pirates as a late-inning reliever, it is even more apparent now that the Pirates will trade one or two arms from the bullpen logjam. The prominent names being bandied about are Antonio Bastardo and Tony Watson, though Jared Hughes, Wade LeBlanc, and others could also make some level of sense as bait. 

Let's start with the less obvious of Hughes, LeBlanc, or others being dealt. I doubt we see this, but it is possible. However, if Pirates wanted no parts of Hughes or LeBlanc, they would have been non-tendered. I can't see any team giving up much of anything to get either of these guys. Now, I could see a team giving up something of value for Schugel, but he is a nice asset for the Pirates to have with many years of control remaining after a nice 2016 campaign. I envision Schugel in the bullpen to start the year for the Pirates. Then there is Tyler Webb, who the Pirates picked up in Rule 5 off the Yankees. It is very possible that the Pirates could send him back to the Yankees for little risk, but I think the Pirates want to wait to see what he has before doing that. They took him in Rule 5. Might as well take a look at him. 

Now to the more obvious trade candidates which are Tony Watson and Antonio Bastardo. 

First, Tony Watson. Watson has had a nice career for the Pirates and is regarded as a top-shelf bullpen arm. It only enhances his usefulness that he is a lefty. However, in 2016, Watson has one of his worse years and slowed down drastically late in the year as his appearances got up in the 60s and 70s. He's been very durable, but the questions about said durability come into question now. He's getting over 70 appearances a year regularly these days but now the concern is whether he is still capable of doing it. Teams will start to wonder if his arm is shot and if his best years are behind him. However, on the surface, he is still seen as a dependable lefty and could be useful in just about every bullpen in the league. 

However, if Watson gets back to old ways, the Pirates having him in 2016 makes the bullpen very formidable with Nicasio, Rivero, Watson, and Hudson manning the backend. Put Schugel and others in long/middle relief and the bullpen starts to look great, which can even out an average rotation. But the Pirates must be careful if they keep Watson and almost be sure he will bounce back because if he doesn't, trading him in July would be a mess or they lose him for nothing in free agency. 

Now onto Bastardo. I think Bastardo is the odd man out of this bullpen logjam. He's expensive for what he did in 2016, and he's not as reliable as Rivero or Watson. Pirates would probably love to get out of Bastardo's contract even though the Mets are chipping in some. In this lefty relief market, I could see teams wanting him. However, I think a Bastardo trade would be more reminiscent of a salary dump than anything else. It would be a way for the Pirates to get out from under his contract and reallocate the money elsewhere. 

Trading one or both of Watson or Bastardo would give the Pirates salary relief which could help them land the starting pitching they so desperately need. The bullpen has always been something Huntington has built well, so his bullpen decisions have earned the trust of many. Overall, I think that Bastardo or Watson will get dealt, but not both. If I had to guess, I'd say Bastardo will get dealt as his role on the Pirates is super unclear and his production can be easily filled by someone far more affordable. I do not get that sense with such a steady reliever like Watson. In the end, I will support just about any move the Pirates make in the bullpen (unless they trade Rivero) because one of Huntington's best skills is building bullpens.