Thursday, July 23, 2015

The trade market will be at its best next week

     As we already know, the MLB non-waiver trade deadline is in a little over a week now. There has yet to be any trades yet which is starting to catch the surprise of people all around. Normally by this time there is at least one trade done, even with the addition of the second wildcard. However, this year is different, and I think it'll pay off to wait until next week to make any sort of trade.

     There are still at least a few teams that have yet to make it clear what they are doing at the deadline with the main culprits being the Tigers, Red Sox, Rangers, Indians, and Mariners. Once those are clear, the trade market will finally be set with GMs knowing what the positions are of each team. That will make it easier to negotiate because it'll be totally clear what is out there. If some of these teams decide to sell, it could make the market more neutral which means prices go down.

     In the modern age of baseball, there are many more of what we call "mini sales" instead of fire sales. Some teams are still doing fire sales, but a lot of teams that are on the fringe will trade their impending free agents even if they still have a sliver of a chance. This can be seen best with the Tigers this year. Even though they may contend, they may still trade impending free agents Yoenis Cespedes, David Price, Alfredo Simon, and others. This is a strategy used so teams can balance out winning now and later. What this does is create more sellers in the trade market. This means the market is more neutral. There isn't just 6 or 7 sellers doing fire sales hoarding all the potential trade pieces. Instead, there are 12-15 sellers with about 10 of them doing mini sales where they sell off 3-4 players.

     In conclusion, I think the remaining teams left to make their stance will by Sunday. After that, we will know exactly what the market is like. By that time, it could turn into a neutral or buyer's market or stay as a seller's market. I think right now, the GMs that are buyers are okay with waiting an extra 3-5 days until it's all clear in hopes that prices go down.

   

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