Let’s lay out a hypothetical to start: Chiefs move up in the 2017 draft from 27 to 10, but instead of drafting Mahomes, they draft a quarterback who is very similar to incumbent Alex Smith (let’s just assume that guy was in this draft and was an option there with Mahomes and Watson).
What do you think happens in this scenario? I think it’s safe to at least assume the Chiefs don’t become the league’s new dynasty. They might be alright, but at the end they’d just be spinning their wheels. Nothing changing. Just stagnant and not at the level they need to be. They watch Mahomes and/or Watson go elsewhere to have great careers and they wonder what could have been.
This is a realistic comparison to what could happen if the 49ers take Mac Jones at 3 after the aggressive trade up. They could just be stuck on that second-level of the NFL. In contention almost always but never good enough to win it all despite everything else being good enough. And they could regret passing on Lance and/or Fields forever.
The Chiefs showed in 2017 exactly how you have to do it. You have to make a move like this to get a guy that can change the game. A transcendent talent for your offense. A guy with real star power. You can’t be scared of being wrong because you are confident you won’t be and have all the tools and systems in place to make sure that doesn’t happen. You don’t do it to take the guy who is very similar to the guy you have. You don’t do it for the guy who is seen as remarkably normal that doesn’t have transcendent super powers for your offense. You need a guy who has all the things that can take you to that next level. That’s why you make this move in the first place.
The Chiefs had conviction. They had a vision for Mahomes nobody else had. It was risky as can be, but they weren’t scared of that. They were confident, and they were also right on it, clearly. The Chiefs understood that fortune favors the bold in the NFL. That’s the mindset you need to have.
I see a lot of similarities between the 2017 Chiefs and the 2021 49ers. The Chiefs went full dive into it with no regrets. Will the 49ers do the same? Do they have what it takes to look at the risk and hit it head on? It’s hard to imagine you make the aggressive move like this only to then become risk-adverse. The Chiefs provided a blueprint on how to do it, one the 49ers have referenced about this situation. Let’s see if that’s just talk or if there is action to back that up.
To me, this situation would scream Trey Lance. It would require the same amount, if not more, conviction and vision to do all of this to draft Lance. His physical gifts and limitless potential are undeniable. It’s not a question he has them. The questions arise from being raw and needing time. The Chiefs gave Mahomes a year behind Smith and then went with him year two and haven’t looked back. Could be the same strategy if Lance is taken here. Get him ready behind Garoppolo (the 49ers public stance of wanting Garoppolo to remain in 2021 would fit here).
If the 49ers want to follow the Chiefs model, this is the way to do it. There is no room in it to take Mac Jones. You probably take Lance in this case, but you can switch it up to your own liking and take Fields. It would have to be one of those two. Drafting Jones would be the exact opposite of the Chiefs model.
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