The Pirates have a decision to make with Francisco Cervelli

The Pittsburgh Pirates are reportedly open to trading catcher Francisco Cervelli, reports Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan. Any potential deal is not yet close and the report stops short of saying the Pirates are actually shopping him actively.

However, it is interesting to note that the Pirates reportedly were nearing a Cervelli trade this past offseason at the Winter Meetings. So much so that Huntington reportedly had to get the officials out of the room to “focus in” the conversation. There were also reports about his trade market at last season’s trade deadline period, so the Pirates have not been shy in talking about trading him.

But should they trade him is the million dollar question (okay more like the $11.5 million question). There are intriguing cases to trade him and to keep him as both have their own set of consequences, both good and bad. Let’s begin with their case to keep him.

Firstly, the catcher position is not an easy one to fill, and Cervelli has been productive as a Pirate at that position the last few seasons. Despite having Diaz, who came on to be one of the better backup catchers in baseball, it is good to have a couple of good options. Huntington noted this specifically in an interview a few weeks ago where he cited comparisons of the catcher position with running back in football in that if you have two of them, you are much better off. He also remarked that everyday catchers are starting to go away and that more teams like having a good tandem of catchers, like the Pirates do now. 

So, it seems like a good idea for the Pirates to carry two catchers that they believe are starting-caliber, especially given both Diaz’ and Cervelli’s respective injury histories. Dealing from that position of strength when they don’t have to could be a poor move with the lack of catching depth organizationally (Jacob Stallings is the best catching option behind Cervelli and Diaz). 

Though, there are also an array of different reasons to suggest that trading Cervelli may actually make sense. 

Firstly, that Cervelli injury history is key. His rap sheet of injuries contains a long list of ailments he has endured over the years, and these aren’t all just routine catcher injuries either. The most scary of the bunch are the concussions that have been plaguing him throughout his career. One more concussion and one would imagine that he will be a catcher no longer. The Pirates have worked him out at first base a bit, but he’d be the backup to Bell there if he were to not be a catcher. He would also find it difficult to supplant Moran at third base as well if he tried out there. Catcher is the only spot on the team where he fits, and one more injury could make him a very expensive bench player. 

That contract is also something that might play here. The money at $11.5 million isn’t egregiously high for his production, but the fact it is expiring after 2019 represents a bigger concern. The Pirates have traded 1 year of a player away multiple times while projecting contention, most notably trading Walker prior to 2016 season and McCutchen prior to last season. It seems like it is an organizational philosophy to do this with position players that are making a fair bit of money on the last year of the contract when they are beyond 30 years old. They trade these players in order to replenish the group with younger guys. 

The other reason they may trade him is because they think Elias Diaz is ready to step into a more prominent role. Diaz played in 82 games last season with surprisingly good marks at the plate, with a .286/.339/.452 slash line, a 114 wRC+ and was worth a full 2 WAR, which is outstanding for a backup. His defense was solid too let’s not forget. However, it is very difficult to hand over the reigns to a 28-year old that has a long history of not being able to hit. Again this goes back to not trading Cervelli because each of the two guys they have can start many games and can compliment each other well in case a problem arises. 

There are some other layers to this, though. The first having to do with Cervelli himself. With the saturation of the catching market this offseason, it is hard to imagine that any and all teams in need of a catcher would find a suitable option before deciding on getting a guy that may not be a catcher very much longer. It would be a risky move, especially considering the other, less risky options that lay out on the market. It almost makes me think that the interested teams would not be interested in him as a catcher, but rather as a designated hitter, first baseman or even a third baseman. Perhaps there are some teams interested in him as a catcher, but the Pirates have tried him out at first base and other teams may be thinking similarly if they get him. He could potentially be a first base option for some teams that miss out on some of the other guys available. More doubtfully but still possible, he could be seen as a third base option, even though he hasn’t taken any reps there in practice. 

The other layer to this is what would happen for the Pirates if Cervelli is traded. Cervelli and Diaz combined for an astonishing 5.3 WAR and were one of the best tandems in the league at the position. Trading Cervelli would leave a gaping hole in production that would need backfilled. Even if you believe that Diaz can start regularly and provide 2.5-3 WAR, which seems optimistic, there’d still be a huge hole there in production. The current backup if Cervelli gets dealt would be Jacob Stallings, and he won’t provide that sort of production, or even really get close. The Pirates would have one of two options. Either sign another catcher that can start 50-60 games and hope they provide crucial production or sign a catcher to start 110-115 games and keep Diaz in his current role and hope the two combined can match or outdo the tandem’s production last season, and that is a hard task. 

There are equally good reasons to keep Cervelli as there are to trade him. I believe the Pirates will definitely listen and entertain offers to see if there is any offer they like. However, I doubt they find an offer out there that will compel them to make a shift to risk losing major production at catcher. Cervelli’s contract, age and injury concern make for a compelling argument to trade him and get healthier and younger at the position. Though, finding quality catchers is tough, so it will be an uphill battle to find a good replacement for production if they trade Cervelli. We will just have to see where this goes as the MLB winter moves along. 

Pittsburgh Pirates offseason needs: Left-handed reliever

One area that severely plagues the Pirates is the lack of lefties both on the MLB roster and within the system as a whole. Their only two lefties on the 40-man roster are Felipe Vazquez and Steven Brault. Neal Huntington acknowledged this past week that they are needing to add in that spot and that they will explore options in that area. He stated it towards getting help in the bullpen in particular, and it seems like the Pirates have that need in mind this offseason.

With that being said, it is a good offseason to need any sort of reliever as there will be plenty to choose from, both righties and lefties. The Pirates should find it easier to find one than they did in previous years. So let’s take a look at some of the options available.

Zach Britton (free agent)

Britton is an interesting free agent case this offseason. He holds name value, but his production the last two years has not held up in comparison to what he did in 2014-2016. Most of that has to do with injury as he has been held to 78 innings total the last two years after averaging close to 70 per season the three years prior. When healthy, he can still be productive, but the problem has been his health, so it’d be a gamble to give him a big deal in hopes he is good now. He may want to settle for a 1-year prove-it deal to see if he can cash out next offseason. If that is the case, the Pirates may want to get in on his market and see if they can get 1 year of good Britton. If it doesn’t work out, they don’t havre to be locked into a bad contract for a mediocre reliever. 

Andrew Miller (free agent)

Andrew Miller is sort of in a similar boat to Britton. Once one of the best lefty relievers in the game, he has been hampered by injuries that have hurt his production, as well as his free agent value. He was held to only 34 innings in 2018 after being one of the league’s most reliable relievers the previous four seasons. He wasn’t as productive in 2018 either as a result as questions about his usage being the main cause for the injury popped up. What doesn’t help him as well is that he experienced this at age 33, which is cause for major concern. Whether he is the same Andrew Miller he was from 2014-2017 is a a big question. And like Britton, it could lead to him needing to take a 1-year prove-it sort of deal to show if he’s right or not. Again, if that is the case, the Pirates should get in on his market to see if they can get vintage Andrew Miller on a lower-risk deal.

Jaime Garcia (free agent)

Some might be surprised to see Garcia on this list as many think of him as a starter. However, he was more effective out of the pen last season and many teams may see him as an outside-of-the-box relief option. Pirates could be one of those teams. They have had interest in Garcia in the past, and they may like the idea of bringing him in as a reliever with the potential to start games if things go sour for the rotation. At a cheap price, Garcia could be a nice value add for this team.

Tony Sipp (free agent)

Sipp has been an effective reliever that just does his job with little recognition (sound familiar, Pirates fans?).The main issue with Sipp is his workload has never been particularly high. His career high in innings pitched in a year was a 54.1 in 2015 and has only eclipsed 50 innings twice. In 2018, he was very effective, pitching to a 1.86 ERA/2.41 FIP and was worth 0.9 WAR in only 38.2 innings pitched (0.9 WAR in only 38 innings is very good for a reliever). He is 35 years old which means his workload is likely only going to be 40-45 innings at this point, but he’d be a fine middle relief option if he can put up numbers like last year despite the decreased workload. Pirates could probably afford him on a 1-year deal as well given his age. 

Justin Wilson (free agent)

Remember Justin Wilson, Pirates fans? That flamethrower that the Pirates converted into an effective reliever before shipping him off to New York for Cervelli? Yeah, he is a free agent now, right when the Pirates could really use him. He was a very effective reliever with the Yankees and Tigers before taking a bit of a tumble with the Cubs. He was still a good reliever with the Cubs though, and he’d be a good option for the Pirates, as long as you don’t expect him to log 65-70 innings in late relief. He isn’t that type of guy, but he can be an effective middle-relief lefty to bridge the gap and come in to create matchup issues. He will be affordable at age 31 on maybe a multi-year deal that wouldn’t be too much to take even if he falls apart. He has familiarity with the Pirates, so maybe he has interest in coming back and actually pitching with Cervelli as his catcher now. If the Pirates have interest too, it could be a good match. 

Oliver Perez and Zach Duke (free agents)

Now if you really want to dig up old Pirates fossils, this is the way to go. Both have found their way into nice niches as lefty relievers, particularly specialists. Huntington said he’d prefer to not have a lefty strictly as a specialist, so that dampens the hopes some fans he may that we can have a Bucco throwback. 

 Aaron Loup, Jorge De La Rosa, Jerry Blevins (free agents)

All three of these guys are veterans that would barely move the needle, but perhaps they can come in on cheap deals, maybe even minor-league deals. I would not see them as guys to put on the top of the list of free agent lefty relievers, but they could be good fallback options that can help if put in the right situation. 

Tony Watson (trade)

Watson is a guy that all Pirates fans know. He was one of the Pirates most reliable relievers for the better part of six years. He was dealt to the Dodgers in 2017 at the trade deadline in a deal that looks good now as it landed them Oneil Cruz, one of their better prospects. For Watson he bounced back very nicely in 2018 with the Giants after signing a very cheap deal with them after two down seasons before. That contract looks very good now. The Giants had a poor season in 2018, despite it being an improvement over 2017. They may be looking to move around some pieces to reinvigorate the roster, and perhaps Watson is expendable. They were reportedly shopping Watson in July at the trade deadline, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do so again. Perhaps the Pirates would be interested in a reunion. With him being owed only $3.5M in 2019 with a $2.5M player option in 2020, he is very affordable. He also wouldn’t take a huge haul to acquire despite the good contract and the production he showed last year, as well as being a lefty. Pirates can certainly afford a reunion in both prospect cost and money cost. 

Andrew Chafin (trade)

The Diamondbacks may be tearing it down, at least a little bit. The lefty reliever Chafin may be one of the pieces that is not held down. The 28-year old is coming off an effective season with the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 3.10 ERA/2.65 FIP and was worth 1 WAR in Arizona in 2018. This was after a pretty effective 2017 as well. He seems to have developed into a reliable reliever. He is under team control for 2019 and 2020 through arbitration, which makes him an attractive option for the Pirates. If the Diamondbacks are interested in dealing Chafin, the Pirates should be in the market for him. 

The Pirates seem likely to add a left-handed reliever in some capacity this offseason, and there are plenty of options out there at all levels of the market that can provide something of value to the Pirates. 

Pirates sign Lonnie Chisenhall

The Pirates have signed OF Lonnie Chisenhall to a 1-year deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and other outlets. Jason Rollison of Bucs Dugout reported on the Pirates interest last week. 

The deal is reportedly a 1-year deal worth $2.75M with performance bonuses. 

Chisenhall is a 30-year old that has seen injury troubles plague him recently. He’s been held to just 82 games in 2017 and 29 in 2018. He did compile a very serviceable 2.2 WAR over that 111-game span. He has always had the ability to hit, having a career slash line of .268/.320/.427 with a 102 wRC+. So nothing special but again serviceable. And while his defense has been down since the injuries, he’s decent enough there to pass. 

The important thing to keep in mind is that he will be a fill-in while Polanco is hurt and then a bench player after that. For the money he is getting and the value he brings, it is a good deal. The money isn’t too high for a 4th OF and the move is more on the low-risk side despite his recent injury woes. 

Pittsburgh Pirates offseason needs: Shortstop

The Pittsburgh Pirates received some pretty bad production from the shortstop position for quite a few years now. Jordy Mercer has been the shortstop for the last handful of seasons and has been very unremarkable, as well as very mediocre. Prior to that, Clint Barmes was the shortstop, and while he possessed good defensive capabilities, he was even worse than Mercer at the plate (which isn’t an easy feat to pull off). 

One could argue that the last time the Pirates had a shortstop that was league average or better was Jack Wilson, who was with the Pirates from 2001 through 2009, and even he lacked a lot in the hitting department despite his astounding glove work. Case in point either way, it has been a long while since the Pirates have had a good shortstop.

With Mercer hitting free agency, the Pirates approach another transition period at the position. They like Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman, but they didn’t show a lot in their September auditions and neither were seen as elite prospects that should have a spot waiting for them. Cole Tucker seems to have turned a bit of a corner and has a higher ceiling than both Newman and Kramer, but he is at least a year away, if not more. And even he has his questions as to whether he is an automatic heir apparent either. 

So, in short, the Pirates should be looking for a shortstop this offseason, and that should be priority number 1 this offseason. While the options aren’t vast this offseason at the position, there are some options out there. Let’s take a look at some.

Jose Iglesias (free agent)

Jose Iglesias is probably the guy most speculated to go to the Pirates this offseason, and it is easy to see why. He is a glove-first shortstop that the Pirates could want to fix up their problems there in the short-term. And the short-term part is key too. Iglesias will not demand a major contract of length like others will. He may only demand a one or two-year deal, which would fit for the Pirates as it would give them time to figure out the future of that position and solidify it, at least defensively, for the present. Iglesias also won’t command the type of money that the Pirates would shy away from. He is right in the area money and contract length wise that the Pirates would prefer to go for. While he wouldn’t help their offense much, he’d certainly sure up the below average defense they’ve seen from Mercer the last few seasons. 

Manny Machado (free agent)

This won’t happen, but some fun never hurt anyone. If the Pirates truly wanted to solidify the position for a LONG time, this is the guy. He could be a team’s franchise shortstop for a decade or more. While his defense at shortstop leaves a lot to be desired, his hitting more than makes up for it as he has been one of the league’s most productive players since he entered the league. Plus, he is only 26, so his best years may be still to come. 

That all being said, he undoubtedly will demand more than $30 million a year on a deal of at least ten years and despite his playoff antics, he should be able to get that contract without any real effort. He is well out of the Pirates price-range. And even if he wasn’t, his shortstop defense is less-than-ideal and he leaves a lot of questions out there about his effort and his dirtiness as a player. He is very talented, but with that talent comes great risk.

Freddy Galvis (free agent)

Now back to reality, we have Freddy Galvis. Galvis is very similar to Jordy Mercer in terms of production offensively. However, his defense is better. Another thing going for Galvis is that he is younger. He is going to be 29 entering this season as opposed to Mercer being 32. He is a decent player and is a slight upgrade over Mercer on defense and he wouldn’t cost much or demand a big deal at all. He has also played 162 games each of the last two seasons and 151 and 158 the two years prior to that. He has been on the field and healthy, something Mercer has struggled with at times. 

Jordy Mercer (free agent)

Speaking of Mercer, he is a free agent. Before you throw your trash my way, let’s take a look. I mean, he is familiar with the Pirates and vice versa and he is at least someone who will mesh with the players easily considering he’s already been in that clubhouse more than any other Pirate on the current team has. Though, bringing him back would be no sort of upgrade offensively or defensively because Mercer is literally Mercer (hard to believe right?). 

Ketel Marte (trade)

The Diamondbacks are reportedly considering a bit of a sell-off. One of the more expendable pieces they have is Ketel Marte. While he is known for being a glove-first player, his hitting is at least league average, which we cannot say about Mercer, Galvis or Iglesias. Ketel Marte is also under contract for awhile as he just signed an extension with the Diamondbacks this past spring that will keep him around through 2022 with a couple of options beyond that, and the contract is rather reasonable for a player of his age as the deal can take him all the way through his prime years. 

Knowing that, the Diamondbacks may not trade a young player with a good contract like that, but if they want to build again it may not be a bad idea. On the Pirates side, they would want to get their hands on Marte given his production, contract and youth. For a team that just acquired one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball (Archer) months after signing one of the most team-friendly deals in baseball (Vazquez), they are clearly prioritizing fitting as much talent as possible into the lowest amount of money spent as possible because of their small market situation. Ketel Marte fits that description of another potential deal they’d like to inherit.

With that contract means the cost will be high to get him. I don’t imagine it’d take a huge prospect like Keller or Hayes to get him, but it’d still take a pretty significant haul. Don’t know if the Pirates do it after just trading Meadows, Glasnow, Baz and Hearn at the trade deadline. But perhaps a new leaf has been turned over. 

Jean Segura (trade)

Jean Segura has bounced around a few times but has finally found a place where he has been consistent in Seattle. The Mariners rewarded him with a huge 5 year deal worth $70 million. He is not a free agent until 2022 at the earliest (his deal includes an option for 2023). While his contract is pretty pricey overall ($14.25 million base with $600,000 in signing bonuses each of the last four years of his contract), he has been worth that money and might continue to as he has become one of the better all-around shortstops in the game despite little talk about him. With the Mariners “re-imagining” the roster, according to their GM Jerry Dipoto, could they really trade him? It is possible.

While Ketel Marte may be worth a pretty penny, Segura would be worth even more in a trade. The problem here from a Pirates perspective is he is getting paid nearly $15 million each of the last four years they’d have him (with a $17 million option after). And three of those seasons will be when he is 30 and older. The Pirates do not typically like paying guys money like that when they are beyond 30 years old (see Joel Hanrahan, Mark Melancon, Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen). They may think they are paying more for what Segura has done more than what he will do, which is the opposite of the thought process with Ketel Marte. I highly doubt they’d part with the prospect cost and want to handle that whole contract.

I think it’s safe to say that the Pirates will add a SS. While it’s hard to envision them going at the top of the market and adding Segura through a trade and even more unrealistic to envision them signing Machado, there are plenty of options that make sense. Jose Iglesias is the most obvious one, but Galvis could also even more easily in range as a stopgap option and Marte could be had for a reasonable prospect cost under a good contract. They may even just bring back Mercer (or even Hechavarria) to supplant things while they bring the young guys along. 

Pirates, Indians make a trade

Pirates announced today that they acquired infielder Erik Gonzalez and right-handers Dante Mendoza and Tahnaj Thomas in exchange for infielder Max Moroff and outfielder Jordan Luplow.

Going from the Pirates to the Indians are two players who were more or less reserve players for the Pirates. Moroff and Luplow showed some in their brief looks in the majors but neither had a spot on the Pirates as they were being heavily blocked. Both are probably bench players at the MLB level, but under the right circumstances, there may be more there. 

However, Luplow had a shot this upcoming spring to earn a spot in right field while Polanco is out. That will no longer be the case. 

Coming to the Pirates is another reserve player from the Indians in Erik Gonzalez. Gonzalez, 27, has played essentially every position, prominently 2nd base recently. He can move around the diamond and plays pretty good defense. His bat leaves a lot to be desired though as he has always been a light hitter with nothing to boast about in that area. He figures to be a bench player most days with the occasional start (though he could possibly see some additional starts while Polanco is out).

Also coming the Pirates way are two lottery pick prospects. Thomas and Mendoza are young and have some things to like, but also some bad qualities to go along with it. Both could be easy misses but could wind up being massive successes, similar to what we saw with the rise of Hearn. But they could just be lost to obscurity just as easily, if not more easily. 

This move seems like it was just a setup. It looks like a move where the Pirates clean house (they empty out one 40-man roster spot in the deal) a bit in order to create space for something else to happen later. This time of year is a big time where we see 40-man maneuvering trades, and this is the Pirates version as they prepare to set the roster for 2019. 

Did the Pirates just sign the veteran shortstop they’re looking for

The Pittsburgh Pirates were able to already make a move in free agency. Granted, it was only to bring back one of their own in Jung Ho Kang. The troubled infielder signed a one-year deal with the Pirates to be on the club for at least one more season. 

Most believe that he will occupy a bench spot on the team and will play some 3rd base on days where Moran is not. However, what if the signing of Jung Ho Kang is larger than it seems?

The biggest area of weakness for the Pirates entering the offseason that needs addressed is shortstop. Incumbent Jordy Mercer departs after six-plus mediocre but steady seasons as the shortstop where he was neither bad nor good. Heir apparents Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman are set to be the future of the club at the position (or at least until Cole Tucker blows away the competition and pushes one of them out). However, neither Kramer or Newman boosted anyone’s confidence about them in their audition in September and Tucker looks as though he will not be in the majors until the middle of 2020 at the earliest. This all leaves potentially a hole in 2019 at a position that was already weak as it is. 

Enter Jung Ho Kang, the former Korean shortstop. While the Pirates seem intent on him playing third base ever since the gruesome injury that ended his 2015 season, plans do change as time goes on. Pirates general manger Huntington strongly suggested that there could be a move this offseason to add a veteran to assist the youngsters at the shortstop position. But, have they already done it with Jung Ho Kang?

My answer to this would be no, for a few reasons. Firstly, he has barely played baseball for two years, let alone shortstop, a position he hasn’t played regularly in nearly four years. Secondly, the Pirates haven’t seemed intent on moving him back to that position before, and it is kind of getting too late to do it now. Additionally, he has enough of an uphill climb to come back and be a productive player, or even to keep his head above water in the big show. Lumping that in with a position change would make things tougher. He is also an unknown at this point, so it seems unlikely that the Pirates would want to be put in a spot where they are relying on him heavily. 

Could he push his way into a larger role if he plays well and shows off vintage Kang? Certainly. But it won’t be given to him. So, adding Kang was a move for them to improve the bench and help with platoon matchups, as well as hoping he bounces back a little bit at least. I can say with a high amount of confidence that he is not the veteran the Pirates have signed to be the shortstop mentor next year. That guy is still out there. 

Pirates re-sign Jung Ho Kang

The Pittsburgh Pirates announced this morning that they have re-signed infielder Jung Ho Kang to a 1-year contract for 2019. His option had been declined prior to the new deal.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the deal is a 1-year deal that will pay Kang $3M base to go along with $2.5M in incentives for performance. 

Kang, 31, has gone through troubling times since 2016, missing time after a sexual assault allegation case that seemed to vanish into nowhere, as well as his DUI arrest in Korea that kept him stuck there for nearly two years. He came back to the country last season but didn’t play too much as he was injured and struggled to get back. He, however, did return to the majors the last series of the regular season and got six plate appearances and got a couple hits but nothing of major note.

Prior to his troubles, he was becoming one of the better hitters on the Pirates and was poised to become a major power threat. Between 2015 and 2016, he hit 36 home runs in 229 games (though, he hit 21 in just 103 games in 2016). He was on the rise after his big campaign in 2016 that was cut short. He had wRC+’s those seasons of 128 and 132 respectively and was worth a total of 5.8 WAR, and it would have definitely been more had he not been held to limited action in either season because of injuries and allegations. So the point is that he was productive. 

But we may not be seeing the same Kang we did before. Having only played 3 MLB games and having 6 plays appearances in two seasons makes it a rough road back. He’s barely even played in the minors in that time either and his short Winter Ball stint in 2017 was a disaster to say the least. 

However, at $3M, it’s a decent gamble. The contract isn’t expensive by MLB standards and if he reaches his incentives, he’ll be worth every penny of the deal and then some. If he can even be half of what he used to be, that’d be very helpful for the Pirates. The Pirates have very little to lose here in a low-risk move. 

Pittsburgh Pirates extension candidates

The Pirates enter a very interesting offseason as they try to continue to pivot towards being a playoff contender once again. However, part of contending is stability. The Pirates have the coaching staff and front office tied down for a bit longer to try to keep that stability. Additionally, they also have plenty of players locked in for awhile.

However, with that being said, there are always players on the roster that teams would like to extend in order to keep them around longer, and at a cheaper rate money-wise than they’d make in free agency. The Pirates have done plenty of this in the past, and much of it has wound up working out in their favor. 

I fully expect them to look into signing more extensions this offseason as well. But, who would they like to extend. I think there are four players they’d like to extend more than anyone else. Let’s take a look at them.

Jameson Taillon

Jameson Taillon has been rock solid for the Pirates in his relatively short time in the majors. He has a 3.63 ERA/3.53 FIP and has been worth 8.4 WAR in 75 games covering 428.2 innings. He is also coming off his healthiest season of not just his major-league career, but arguably his whole pro career, having shattered a career-high in innings pitched with 191. He is turning into the Pirates ace very quickly and will only continue to rise it looks like. The Pirates would certainly love to keep him around beyond the next 4 years they will have him for. Also, if he continues to pitch like he has, his arbitration will get rather expensive. This is why he is their prime extension candidate. 

Pirates would want to buy out the 4 years he has left and hope it winds up being less money overall than arbitration would have been (this is where they messed up with Gerrit Cole). They also would want to buy out a free agency year or two on top of that. A 5-year deal with a team option or two at the end sounds like a Pirates type of extension here. I feel there’d be at least a decent chance he’d sign it as well. 

It would smart for the Pirates to get this deal done at the beginning of Taillon’s breakout and not wait a year or two until he may become a bonafide ace and then having to pay him twice as much just to stay. 

Keone Kela

Keone Kela arrived in Pittsburgh in a July trade with the Rangers. He was nothing but dominant for the Pirates. Kela had his troubles on and off the field in the past, but it seems he may have exorcised those demons to become a legitimate backend of the bullpen force. 

The thing about Kela is that he is only 25 (doesn’t turn 26 until April) and will be a free agent after 2020, which will be when he is only 27 and approaching his age 28 season. He can hit free agency at a pretty young age if he wants to. But that is why the Pirates have to try to get him locked in now. 

Like Taillon, he seems to be beginning his actual breakout now and could become a bonafide legitimate top bullpen arm within the next year or two. Pirates have to try to sign him before he realizes that potential. Given his age, it wouldn’t be such a bad idea to give him a 5-year deal because that would still only take him through his age-30 season. 

The problem will lie in what kind of money he’d want. For a guy to forego two potentially expensive arbitration years and pass on hitting free agency at age 27 would take quite the contract I’m sure. He has potential to earn a lot of money in the 2020/2021 offseason as a potentially elite reliever with closing experience at that young age. Pirates would almost have to approach him with something really close to a free agent type of deal to get him to stay. I doubt he signs an extension in Pittsburgh after being around only two months anyways. He will likely wait this one out.

Josh Bell

Josh Bell has had an interesting two full seasons in the majors to say the least. He had one season in which he hit a lot of homers and played at least average defense. However, last season he hit for a higher average, got on base more and struck out less, but he hit less than half as many homers as he did in 2017. His defense at 1st base regressed though to being quite possibly the worst in the NL at his position. 2019 will be a huge season for Bell where he tries to combined what he did well in both seasons and eliminate as many of the flaws as possible. 

Because of this, I doubt the Pirates give him an extension until he proves that and shows consistency. On the other hand, however, if he puts it all together in 2019, he enters arbitration with some leverage as a breakout player. 

I think the Polanco situation a few years ago is a good comparison to Bell here. Pirates saw flashes of Polanco enough to give him a long-term extension before the full breakout they expected, which we still haven’t seen just yet. They could do the same with Bell. Give him a long-term relatively cheap deal now in hopes that he breaks out right after. It is a risky deal to do for sure, but they may try that route with Bell like they did Polanco. 

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson may be the most interesting extension candidate the Pirates have. He had one of his better all-around seasons, hitting to a  .300/.330/.474 slash line and a 115 wRC+. Even though he, like Bell, hit about half as many home runs as the year before, he reinvented himself by hitting for higher average and on-base percentage to go with fewer strikeouts (like, almost 10% fewer actually). But the biggest and most drastic change we saw with Dickerson was his defense. He was seen as a liability on defense in Colorado before going to Tampa Bay where he was primarily a DH for that reason. However, in Pittsburgh that changed a ton. He had been a negative DRS (defensive runs saved) player every year in his career prior outside of 2016 and was a career -8 DRS player, so yeah the stats didn’t lie. However, this past season, he shattered all of that. He profoundly crushed his career high 2 DRS by having a whopping 16 DRS in 2018 which reversed that -8 and turned it into a positive 8 on his career DRS. He was rewarded for this by shockingly winning the National League’s gold glove award for left field. 

He is under team control through next season and will be a free agent after that. He is 29 years old and will be 30 early next season. Given his age and the amount of outfield prospects they have, they may not want to extend Dickerson, but he may be worth it now given that he has adapted his game to maybe give him a longer shelf life than that of others his age, and the Pirates at least know he can perform adequately, which rookies coming in often will struggle with. He has been a consistent performer and has become a leader for this younger team, and it may be smart to keep him around for an extra two or three years if possible. 

I believe they will sign one of these guys to an extension this offseason or during spring training. My hunch would tell me they extend Taillon. But, extending Bell may be the most convenient one to do now, so it may be him. I will guess extending Kela will be too difficult, and their organizational philosophy and circumstance will cause them to take a hard pass on extending Dickerson.