The 49ers have been hit or miss in the draft this regime in four years. It’s not unnatural for that to occur as the draft can be a crapshoot. However, there have been signs of improvement the last two years. There is a reason for that, and it’s a big signal in my opinion that points to them not selecting Mac Jones.
The first two years of their regime, in the early rounds of the draft, they went mostly with safe picks. The exception was Foster, but he’s a rural unique situation so we’ll exclude him from the conversation. Solomon Thomas was their first ever draft pick. He was seen as a guy who can be good but his ceiling wasn’t as high as others in the class. He was seen as a solid starter in the league but nobody saw him as a guy who had the makings of being super elite. He was a “safe” pick. When trying to just build a roster, that’s fine. Just get as many good players as possible then go from there. Makes sense. The problem was that he didn’t even hit his floor. They didn’t pick up his 5th year option after a not so good tenure in the Bay.
In 2018, they selected Mike McGlinchey. Again, they passed on guys with more elite athleticism and traits for him because he was seen as “a solid NFL starter.” Again, fine for a rebuilding roster. He was another “safe” pick. The story of McGlinchey is he’s a starter in the league but he’s average at best. His 5th-year option is in question. Another guy that hasn’t hit his floor even.
Both those drafts were filled with other more system guys with less risk like Pettis and Beathard. They also didn’t work out. Their big hits came in more risky guys with more elite traits like Fred Warner and George Kittle, arguably their two best players.
Things really changed in 2019. The 49ers had an epiphany. They realized more elite traits could mean better players. They also put the roster in a place where they can absorb more potential risk. That year, they had to choose between the guy with more elite traits in Nick Bosa or the guy with less but is a bit safer in Quinnen Williams. They went with Bosa. Wound up being a great choice. Deebo Samuel in round 2 was a high-end trait guy too early in round 2. Another great choice. All their selections became more about guys with the better traits, not the safer choices.
This continued last year. Kinlaw was very raw and wasn’t a top 20 pick based on tape alone, but he was a freak physically and had elite traits. Same with Aiyuk. He had so many elite traits and they took him at the backend of round 1 when most thought they could easily take the safer WR with pick 13 (Jerry Jeudy). Aiyuk had a very good year 1 and Kinlaw has loads of potential and played well late last season.
The safer picks they have made have mainly been busts while the riskier ones have been good to them. Weird how it works backwards of what you’d expect. I have two reasons why this change happened for them. One, they had a roster by 2019 that they felt better about just trying to compile better talent as opposed to just normal starters. The second is they learned from their draft mistakes the first two years. The two “safe” 1st rounders they took didn’t do what they hoped and some of the others didn’t either. Since changing the philosophy, their drafting has gotten more successful.
If they stick to this philosophy that has worked, they will not draft Mac Jones. The words you often hear when talking about Jones is “safe pick, will be a fine starter in the NFL, high-floor guy.” This sounds familiar with much of the failed draft picks the 49ers had the first two years, in the early rounds anyways. I’d like to think the 49ers have learned from their mistakes and will not do them again. They now know more elite traits guys are the way. Mac Jones just wouldn’t fit into that new philosophy they’ve clearly obtained. It would feel like a move right out of 2017 for them.
There is another note of caution here for the 49ers. The words “most pro-ready, safe, high-floor guy, solid starter” should be avoided when drafting a quarterback high. You can go throughout the last 10 years, most of the 1st-round QBs that have failed have those descriptions. Most recently, Trubisky got this label in 2017, didn’t work out. Rosen in 2018, didn’t work out. Daniel Jones in 2019, didn’t work out, at least to this point (Jones might still have a chance). The guys that have worked were the guys who people said needed work but their traits were elite. Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Jackson and Murray are top QBs in the league. Mayfield, Darnold and Haskins are outliers in this. But the history shows that “safe” picks actually don’t work as well as “risky” picks (maybe we need to re-think how we categorize this). Falling into this misconception is a pretty bad mistake that usually costs people their jobs.
The 49ers have been a very smart organization under this regime. I can’t imagine they will fall into this trap of “safe” QBs while also abandoning the draft philosophy they’ve built for two years, to select Mac Jones. It just doesn’t fit in with everything else.
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