The Pirates seemed to open up a contention window for the 2019-2021 seasons. This is pretty clear to see since Dickerson and Cervelli are gone after 2019, Kela after 2020 and Marte and Archer after 2021 (with Polanco and Vazquez options there as well). It’s quite clear the emphasis is on these three years for the Pirates.
However, it seems like everyone else in the NL Central has the same idea. The Cubs will likely have at least two to three years left of contention before needing to step back, the Brewers opened up a window and proceeded to make good on it in 2018 and are still good going into this upcoming season, the Cardinals added big in their quest to contend again and they will always have a chance regardless. Even the Reds got the memo after adding for 2019 and possibly for that few years after that as well.
So one could make the case that in what has become an even more rugged NL Central than usual, maybe the Pirates should have picked a different time to finally sell off future assets for established MLB players that fill high production (Archer and Kela) and perhaps sit out this arm’s race that is going on amongst division counterparts. This, instead, might have been an opportune time to do a little rebuild and come back in a few years once everyone else is tapped out or close to it.
Perhaps the Pirates could have kept Meadows, Glasnow, Hearn and Baz and traded Dickerson, Cervelli, Marte, Vazquez and perhaps Polanco before the 2019 season ends and then proceeded forward with trading others after that.
This would have built the farm system up pretty well and would have given the Pirates a good chance in 2022 while everyone else in the division might be starting to fall back a little bit after their three-year-long sprint to the top.
You can see why the Pirates front office did not do this though. The team showed up enough in 2018 to warrant an opportunity instead of a rebuild. The team is also relatively young, so a rebuild for such a young team already is tricky. In addition to that as well, the Pirates front office may get cold feet about a rebuild considering they took over within the seemingly never-ending one from the mid-90s until 2010. They know what a horrible and painful process that can be for them, the players and the fans all alike.
But with everyone in the NL Central going for it to some degree in 2019 and perhaps beyond that, you have to wonder whether or not the Pirates made the correct decision doing it also. The Pirates winning an arm’s race against their biggest foes is unlikely. Them competing with the likes of the loaded Cubs, the up and coming Brewers and the ever-present Cardinals is unlikely too. Even the Reds have a decent chance to be above the Pirates in the standings for the first time in awhile with their own big plays that they have made this offseason to be competitive.
And this doesn’t just pertain to the NL Central. This pertains to the National League as a whole as well. The whole league seems to be on the rise all at once. The Dodgers will be a consistent threat and the NL Central will be tough as I mentioned, but the Braves and Rockies will return as up and coming teams as well. Additionally, the Nationals, Mets and Phillies have also participated in their own arm’s race with the Braves in the NL East. The Diamondbacks cannot be discredited either, and if the Giants are healthy, they have an outside chance. Even the Padres have the talented youth to take a leap similar to the 2018 Braves. So the NL is quite a tough thing to get through right now, and you can make the case that the Pirates would need a lot to go right themselves and a lot go wrong for many others to even have a chance at the playoffs.
The Pirates fight right now, as it stands, may be just to not finish in last place in a loaded division, and perhaps to finish 10th or better in the NL as a whole, both which may be a tall orders by themselves. And it is quite justified to wonder whether that is worth even going for. The Pirates might have been better off sitting this one out and lurking in the shadows during a rebuild, prepared to strike when the time is just right.
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