The starter version of Jordan Lyles would not work for the Pirates

The Pirates are expected to sign RHP Jordan Lyles to a 1-year deal as early as Friday. This came on the heels of the trade of Ivan Nova, leading many to think Lyles is the replacement for Nova. Those suspicions were confirmed when it was said that Lyles would get a chance to earn a rotation spot in March at Spring Training in Bradenton. 

But Jordan Lyles, the starter, is not that good. Lyles’ numbers as a starter leave way too much to be desired, and his numbers as a reliever show greater promise for him. The key mechanical fixes he made in 2018 could pave way for the 28-year old to be a solid rotation option, but I still think he is even more valuable as a reliever. 

The other issue here is whether Lyles can even replace Nova’s innings, let alone be productive. Lyles’ career high in innings is 141.1 all the way back in 2013 and he has only reached 100 innings in a season once since (which was 2014). So he’s four years removed from his last 100 inning season. Not too great when trying to replace about 160 innings given by Nova. 

If Lyles is the rotation replacement for Nova, it would draw eerie similarities to the Pirates offseason plan of 2016. They traded Morton that offseason to get rid of high salary for average production, only to sign Ryan Vogelsong for cheap in hopes of replacing that even though it was a long shot. This time, they traded Nova to get rid of high salary for average production and might replace him with a cheap arm that doesn’t have a history of being a productive starter or a history of a lot of innings logged. 

This becomes more true if you subscribe to the theory that they’d ride Lyles for three months until Keller arrives. The Pirates, in 2016, hoped to get okay Vogelsong until June or July when Taillon and Glasnow were expected to arrive and be productive right away. It didn’t work for a couple reasons. First, Glasnow didn’t get it together (and still hasn’t now with the Rays) and second, Taillon wasn’t productive right away, as many rookies aren’t on their first go-around. So if they really do want to use Lyles in the rotation for a couple months as to not block Keller, they better be wary of that after they botched the same idea just a few short seasons ago. 

Personally, I think there’s more here that has yet to be uncovered but will be as the offseason progresses. But for now, if Lyles is a starter in place of Nova, that is quite a step backward for this rotation and the team would suffer for it, even if it Lyles is only a stopgap.