Monday, May 22, 2017

It's time to accept that Adam Frazier is a good hitter

Since bursting onto the scene in 2016, Pirates' utility man Adam Frazier has easily been one of the best hitters on the team. This season, in particular, he's been excellent with a .418 OBP, a wOBA of .390, and a wRC+ of 143. In case you don't know, all three of those are well above average. His strikeout rate of 12.1% is very respectable while his walk rate is only at 6.6%, which both combined will indicate he's putting the ball in play a ton. 

Then, there is the not so good. Adam Frazier, by many accounts, is due to regress and many point at his BABIP for that argument. Typically with BABIP, a below .300 means bad luck and a player is due to be better, while an above .300 means a player is due for some regression as .300 represents the typical average. Frazier's BABIP this season is a whopping .417, which means he is due for some sort of regression at some point. And while I agree the regression is coming, it won't be so bad to make him a bad hitter.

The reason I think this is mainly because of his low strikeout rate. A 12.1% strikeout rate, which I mentioned above, is very low and is just an indication that he continues to get the ball in play. This means that even if his BABIP regresses a bit, he's getting the ball in play enough to continue to get his fair share of hits. 

The best comparison example I've read of this is Placido Polanco vs Gary Bettis. Each player owned a career .313 BABIP, but Polanco was the way better hitter overall because he struck out far less and got the ball in play far more than Bettis, even though both players had an equal percentage chance of getting a hit when they got the ball in play. 

If Adam Frazier can keep his strikeout rate around where it is currently and just put the ball in play, he will continue to get his hits. Now, I doubt he will continue to hit as well as he has, but some players do defy the numbers. 

Will Adam Frazier ever be a batting champion? I doubt it. Will he become a legendary hitter? The odds are definitely stacked against him. However, it's not fair to say he is the luckiest hitter imaginable because he's nowhere close to that. Many indicators are not in his favor but many are in his favor as well. So, I think it's time to accept that Adam Frazier is a good hitter, and that's not such a bad thing right?

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