This time of year, there is a lot of lying going on around the NFL as the draft approaches. April is the worst month for it. Teams have every reason to do it as they try to manipulate the draft boards in their favor by spreading things they hope impacts decisions of other teams in the league.
This year the big “rumor” is that the 49ers will select Alabama QB Mac Jones with the 3rd pick. This is in no way true when you consider a lot of things and use some further thinking and analysis.
Besides the fact that teams lie, nothing leaks out of the 49ers organization. This isn’t Baalke’s 49ers. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan made it a point to keep the most tight-lipped operation. John Lynch was only going to take the job if the 49ers could prove they could prove they wouldn’t leak that they were interested in him. Shanahan wants that too as his dad was the same way. The whole organization does everything in silence. In fact, they were working on moving up to 3 for a month at least and nobody caught on except those involved. That is one of many instances where everyone was blind-sighted by something they have done. Do you really think a trade of this magnitude would be pulled off quietly only for the plans with the pick to get out? Not a chance. I can assure you the plans for who the pick is at 3 is the most private conversation in the NFL currently. Nobody knows but probably 4-5 people and none leak a thing. If they did, they’d be fired (Lynch has done it in the past).
It also behooves the 49ers to have the Mac Jones thing out there. It nicely hides their true intentions. If they can trick teams into believing he’s the pick, they’ll pretty much guarantee their actual guy will be there at 3. The reason is simple. No team is trying to trade up to the Jets pick for Jones. But they could for Fields or Lance. If it was known publicly who the 49ers like, it could happen where a team jumps them to take that guy. Or the Jets, who now run the same system as Shanahan and have a lot of 49ers people there, would just take the guy the 49ers want because if it’s good for him, it’d be good for them too. This lie is fine by the 49ers. Whether they purposefully did it or not, we don’t know. The fact they aren’t doing a thing to stop the noise (teams know what info is out there and monitor it) just confirms that they want it out there because they know it helps them. If they were being caught onto, they’d spread some heavy fake rumors of their own to dispel it and cause confusion. They aren’t clearly.
But who are they really targeting? Well the signs point to one guy. Justin Fields.
I made a whole theory about some possibilities that could suggest a long-game plan by Shanahan to get Fields (or nothing but fun fiction. I don’t know). Here that is: https://blackgoldred.blogspot.com/2021/04/has-kyle-shanahan-been-eyeing-justin.html?m=1
Other signs exist too. I truly believe the rise in Jones’ draft stock and the Fields’ fall in draft stock, at least in the media, is happening because teams are trying to get the 49ers to change their minds. They want to pump up Jones and knock down Fields for that reason. This stuff, oddly enough, didn’t happen until right after the 49ers traded up. I think people quietly expect Fields will be the pick but hope it isn’t, so they’ll push these things as a final hope that will be futile.
There is also the part where Fields is the best fit for the offense. He is a very accurate passer that can stand in the pocket and make throws. The Shanahan offense calls for that. He’s also good at play action and bootlegs, another staple of the offense. His processing and progressions are better than he’s given credit for. The overwhelming sentiment to what the Shanahan system wants in a QB is a guy who can do the work in the pocket and is athletic. That’s how the offense works best. It was built initially for Steve Young and John Elway after all. Justin Fields checks every box there can be. He’d likely have to sit a bit just to absorb the offense and refine some things. Time won’t be an issue for Shanahan, who has nothing but time in San Francisco as it is quietly known that he runs the show there. Jed York gave him the keys to the thing and said good luck.
There is just a lot here that tells me that it’s Justin Fields. Just like in 2019, the choice is obvious but there’ll be a smokescreen that they are taking the Alabama guy only to take the Ohio State guy they were always planning to. It’s the same exact strategy. It’s not overly obvious they are taking him and it’s possible they still won’t, but I think it’s strongly leaning that direction based on the underlying signs that usually aren’t as much discussed because media narratives and belief in every rumor takes precedent in the news. So don’t be surprised if you hear Justin Fields’ name called to the 49ers at 3. I know I wouldn’t be.
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