Why wide receiver early might not actually be the move for the 49ers

The 49ers have two picks in round 1 now thanks to the trade of DeForest Buckner. Many figure they’ll use one to address the wide receiver position and the other to trade down for more picks in the 2nd-4th rounds, where they have zero picks thanks to trades for Ford and Sanders last year. 

However, I don’t think wide receiver is as a slam dunk for the 49ers in round 1 as many believe. There are multiple reasons for this thinking.

First is that the 49ers never have ran their draft based on a need alone. They more so go with the analytics and go with what they feel is the best thing to do when they get on the clock. 

If they see a player at another position, like offensive or defensive tackle, that is higher on their board than a wide receiver, they’ll take that player. Or if they see a trade they like that they see as more valuable that what player they can get, they’ll do that. That’s how they run things. They never lock in on one thing. 

Another reason is that this regime hasn’t spent big at the wide receiver position. Their cap dollars spent at the position are minimal. And as for the draft, they have spent two seconds, a third, a fifth and a sixth on wide receiver in the draft. Their receiver group is filled in after that by lower-end WR free agent signings. They just haven’t spent huge at the position. Shanahan looks for hidden value at the position over top end talent, at least so far in three years. 

They have had 4 first round picks in three years and have spent only one of them on an offensive player, and that was a tackle in McGlinchey. The prospect of spending a 1st on an offensive skill player hasn’t been something the 49ers have done to this point. Analytically, it hasn’t made since for them to this point. 1st round WRs are iffy and other positions are more valuable than it. 

Shanahan can scrap together a pretty good WR group with his scheme. He can’t scrap together elite offensive or defensive linemen. And finding corners is difficult. Those positions aren’t only more valuable than WR but are also harder to find. So you better believe they’ll value those positions more on their draft board if they get to their picks and there is a player at those positions grades similar for them as a wide receiver. They’ll look at overall value and make that call. 

In this draft particularly, the receiver class is so talented and deep that the 49ers can find a good one in the 2nd-4th if they trade down a pick. Even the 5th and 6th round will have some WR gems that Shanahan could work with. 

I wouldn’t just assume they’ll take a receiver in the first round this year. In fact, even if they trade down, they might skip on one until the later rounds in order to fill other needs at defensive tackle, offensive tackle, cornerback and even future-proofing the safety position. This receiver class is that good that it’s a possibility they do that and feel good about it. 

I am not as convinced they’ll take a receiver early in this draft. It just doesn’t really fit with the rest of what Shanahan has done at the position. It also doesn’t fit what this regime has done at the draft the first three years. It will all depend on how the board falls of course, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t hear wide receiver for the 49ers early in this draft.