What are the 49ers doing?

On the first day of the NFL’s legal negotiating window ahead of free agency, the 49ers made some moves. One was expected, one was sort of expected and the other was a huge surprise. 

First, they re-signed Arik Armstead to a 5-year deal (though it has a weird clause in it that can turn it into a 6-year deal). The deal is heavily backloaded to help the 49ers cap crunch this offseason. 

Then they traded DeForest Buckner to the Colts for a 1st. With almost no way to keep Buckner, Armstead and Ford at more than $50M/year average, the 49ers decided to trade the guy on the last year of his deal that wasn’t getting extended at the $21M/year the Colts wound up giving him. Plus, getting a top 15 pick is legit. 

Then they re-signed Jimmie Ward as well. The longtime 49er who has made it through three coaching changes will continue to be a 49er. He comes on a new 3-year deal. Structure of the deal is unknown but I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is backloaded too, but probably not to the degree of Armstead’s. 

So what exactly are the 49ers doing? That’s a question that has has been rolling around in my head since the Buckner trade. Reason being that you don’t trade a guy like him to save that much cap space without another big plan. 

But there are concerns after the Ward signing that they jettisoned their best defensive player only to create cap space to re-sign other defensive players (and perhaps extend Kittle). No moves that make the team better, and in fact, the team is definitely worse off without one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league. 

The one thing the 49ers do have now though is two first-rounders, including one in the top 15 (13th overall). And for a team without another pick until the 5th round after that, it’s a big deal. 

However, at least right now, it appears as though they are hoping Ward and Armstead can match career seasons, which will be tough. While also hoping those first round picks turn in production that overall matches Buckner from a win-perspective. That’s a tough thing to place on rookies. 

This is why I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. There has to be more here. Lynch and Shanahan were aggressive after the team went 6-10 and 4-12. You can’t tell me they won’t be aggressive after a Super Bowl run. 

Often times, the loser of the Super Bowl goes on a bad hangover the next year. A big reason is because they don’t often add huge pieces after that run. They work hard to retain their own in hopes of remaking that magic. And sometimes they make decisions to move on from good players in order to retain others. Sound familiar? I hope the 49ers don’t fall into this trap. 

I’ve never known Lynch and Shanahan to just sit on their hands and let opportunities pass them by. They know this team currently isn’t better than the one that went to the Super Bowl. It’s the same team minus Buckner. The two first rounders will help, but you have to temper expectations for rookies (they aren’t all as good as Nick Bosa). Getting Taylor and Hurd back will help, but neither guy puts them over the top like Buckner does. 

So to trade a player of the level of Buckner only to re-sign and extend your own players and make the team worst off overall is not something I think the 49ers would do, not in this regime anyway. They know it’s now Super Bowl or bust for them, and that’s why I expect the other shoe to drop in this really soon. Right now, it’s a puzzle that is undone with pieces scattered. But soon, I believe the puzzle will be built and all these moves will make coherent sense with each other.