The trade:
Astros received: RHP Gerrit Cole
Pirates received: RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Michael Feliz, 3B Colin Moran, and OF Jason Martin
What the Astros got:
In this trade, the Astros received a former 1st overall pick that soared his way into the MLB in a very short amount of time. However, there's debate as to whether he has actually ever reached that ceiling or ever will.
Gerrit Cole has had his ups and downs. He had a good half season after his June callup in 2013, making it seem like he was the next legend to come in Pittsburgh. However, 2014 brought him some injury and inconsistency, a mild step back that seemed easily fixable. The suspicions of that looked like fact when he had a Cy Young-type season in 2015, finally achieving the ceiling he garnered throughout his pro career. It seemed like that was here to stay, but in 2016, Cole was hampered by similar troubles he experienced in 2014. He was effective but inconsistent. However, also just like 2016, he was injured a good part of the season, as he only was able to rack up 116 innings of work. Now people were getting worried. In 2017 it didn't get better. While he wasn't injured and racked up over 200 innings, a lot of other issues hurt him. He allowed the second most homers in the NL, and his numbers looked more akin to a 4 starter than an ace.
When we mix all of this together, we see a pitcher with all the potential in the world but, other than 2015, hasn't been able to reach it, even regressing in recent years. For his career as a whole, he's been a solid starter that has had some inconsistencies and has been plagued by the injury bug on and off. He makes any rotation he joins better for sure, but he will need to find what's missing in his game to hit that next level. Whether he will find that and ever hit his potential remains to be seen. The good part is that he's still quite a bit away from 30 years old and hasn't shown any signs of elbow issues that would signal Tommy John Surgery is near, quite remarkable for a pitcher that throws as hard as he does.
What the Pirates got:
In this trade, the Pirates received 4 players. 2 of which are in the majors, one of which will likely be in the majors on Opening Day, and a prospect at the AA level. Let's go through all these players one by one.
RHP Joe Musgrove:
Musgrove has had an interesting first go through in the majors. He was a starter for the World Champion Astros for a good bit of time before going to the bullpen for various reasons. He showed great results in the pen, but there are still many that believe he can and will be a starting pitcher, Pirates included in those many. Musgrove doesn't wow with the fastball but his offspeed stuff is seen as being what will make him good, and the main reason why he was ranked as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball prior to his callup. He has attributes that make many think he'll be good, but the debate now is will he be a starter or a reliever. Pirates have time to figure that out.
RHP Michael Feliz:
Feliz is another former great pitching prospect that has had some inconsistency to this point in the MLB. However, the 24-year old shows a lot of things that makes many think he'll become a very good reliever. He throws upper 90s and strikes out a ton of guys but has issues with command and control at his age? Remind you of anyone? It better. Felipe Rivero was the same way when the Pirates acquired him in 2016 and he quickly became one of the game's best relievers. Many believe that under the tutelage of Ray Searage, the Pirates could have another Rivero on their hands.
3B Colin Moran
Moran is a former first round pick and has only gotten a light taste of the majors up to this point. He is still considered a good player, but people in the industry are split about how good he will be. He recently tweaked his swing a bit in 2017 and some added power went with it, as well as some other benefits, and the Pirates will hope that's here to stay. He's much more encouraging as a hitter than a defender over at the hot corner, but he hits way better vs RHP as opposed to LHP, which makes him a good candidate to platoon, at least to start out. Overall, Moran is a polarizing player. Some think he'll be a star, some think he'll be serviceable, and some think he'll be a bust.
OF Jason Martin:
Jason Martin was another former 1st round pick but has failed to reach that potential, even as a prospect. He's fallen far from grace the last few years but still has some things that give people hope for him, mostly his power. He currently projects to be a MLB 4th outfielder at best. If he develops better under the Pirates care, however, he could be more than that.
So who got the short end of the stick here? I honestly think nobody. Cole has had problems with injuries and inconsistencies and teams aren't going to pay top prospect value for what Cole could be when he's only shown that once in 4 years. He's getting to the point in his career where he is what he is. Pirates received 3 former top 100 prospects that have contributed in the majors, many of which were previously 1st round picks. The guys the Pirates received aren't just nobodies because they do not appear on top prospect charts. Pirates got immediate MLB contribution here and many years of control for these players. Is there work to do on these guys, like all young players? Sure. But just the same, the Astros have a lot of work to do with Cole to make the trade worthwhile on their end as well. This is a trade of guys who haven't reached their full potentials going elsewhere to see if they can reach it there.
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