When will Trey Lance start for the 49ers?

As the dust has settled on the draft, one of the bigger conversations now is how the 49ers QB situation will play out now that Trey Lance is in tow with Jimmy Garoppolo still around. Conventional wisdom suggests Garoppolo is the guy for now, but we really don’t know how long that’ll be. So the question has become more about when Lance will start. 

The easy answer is “when he’s ready.” Everyone says that, but what does that mean? That concept is always so abstract. Nobody truly knows what it means. It means something different to everyone. And I believe nobody is truly ready to do anything until they do it, so it’s worthless to say it anyways. 

What would “ready” mean for Shanahan anyways? Would it mean “can run the offense as well as Garoppolo?” Would it be when he feels he’s surpassed Garoppolo? We don’t know. What we do know is Shanahan threw a rookie in Robert Griffin III out there as a rookie and won 9 games with him playing well. Also threw Garoppolo in after a mid-season acquisition where he got only a month to try to absorb as much of a complex system as possible. He wound up running a watered down version of the offense at the end of 2017. They won all 5 games. Shanahan clearly isn’t afraid to be aggressive with letting guys play despite not fully grasping the offense. 

But it’s not so black and white here. This situation is nuanced given all the circumstances that have gotten us to this point. 

Trey Lance is a unique player in the fact he only started 17 career collegiate games at the FCS level and also didn’t play in 2020 outside of a weird showcase game that had to do with scholarships or something. It was a crapshoot game too that hardly matters. These things do factor into the equation. 

By the time the season starts, Lance would have only played in that one weird game of football over the last almost two years. Is the solution to sitting that long and not playing to sit more and not play games? That’s a hard one that’ll need figured out. Lance will need real game reps ASAP or else you risk rotting him. There’s a fine line between developing and rotting. 

While he started only 17 games at the FCS level, there is enough evidence to suggest that a low amount of collegiate starts doesn’t directly mean the guy is a “super raw” prospect. Mac Jones has the same amount and was seen as the most polished guy besides Lawrence in the class. And there are enough quality FCS QBs over the years to suggest that guys can play at that level. It’s a tough step up, but not an impossible one clearly. 

There are some things working for Lance though. First, he ran quite possibly the most complex offense college football has to offer. He is super smart and absorbs info really well. His mental ability in the game is off the charts. I have no doubt he’ll be able to pick up the play book faster than most anyone else. 

Secondly, he’s more talented than Garoppolo and he expands offensive capabilities. It’s hard to keep that guy on the bench too long. It puts the 49ers at a severe competitive disadvantage. 

While not really an issue for the 49ers specifically right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract is also a competitive disadvantage at this time. Meanwhile, one of the most valuable parts of a young QB is their cheap rookie contract. You have to take every advantage you can while you have the guy at that price. If you don’t, it’s malpractice. 

Another thing is that the 49ers effectively spent three 1st rounders on Trey Lance. It was a hefty price to pay. I find it really hard to justify spending that much and then sitting him for awhile. It’s just poor value to spend that much then not maximize the initial contract as much as you can. Like buying a car but not driving it for awhile but still making payments on it while you drive your old junker. Makes little sense. 

So as we see, there are a lot of things that factor into this whole thing. It’s not so easy to decipher when the time will be when Lance will become the starter. We really can’t. We definitely can’t in May. We might not even know in August. It’ll be one of those “when you know, you know” things. Everyone will sense it. It’ll be obvious when it’s going to happen. 

Ideally, you want that to happen in week 1. I wouldn’t rule it out, but I also think it’s unlikely. With the way Lance is though, he has an outside chance of learning it all, doing it all and at least getting to a place where he can compete right away. 

I think more realistic is that he’ll take over sometime during the season. Could be week 6, could be week 10. Who knows. I just don’t think it’s going to take him a ton of time to get his chance. At the latest, he’s starting for this team week 1 in 2022. There is no chance he’s waiting longer than that for his turn. 

But the decision on this won’t have to happen right away. The 49ers are in a spot where they can play it right. If Lance is “ready” week 1, great! If not, no big deal. It’ll happen when it happens. The 49ers do have to be careful not to be too cute with it though and wait too long. They have to find the right time, but honestly more often than not, the right time finds teams. Just ask the Chargers last year with Herbert. 

My personal thought is he’ll take over this season for them. I don’t know when, but I just feel that’s inevitable. He’s too talented and too smart to be kept down long. Sooner rather than later, he’s going to get into position where he pushes Garoppolo out. This isn’t atypical. It’s just the nature of this. He’ll learn the playbook at blazing speed and he will show all his talent in practice where people watching just know what’s about to happen. It won’t happen all at once where one day it’s just an epiphany. It’ll be a process of things that leads to them knowing it’s time, and I think it’ll happen this season. 

What the 49ers do with Garoppolo is anyone’s best guess

A big talking point about the 49ers all offseason is whether or not they will trade/release Jimmy Garoppolo. It has been a winding road. Every time we think we have the answer, it starts to change again. A few weeks ago, he looked good as gone. Now he looks safe. I personally don’t think we will truly have the answer until we do. There are just so many factors in this situation that we cannot pinpoint what exactly they’ll do here. 

The first thing I want to mention here is that this situation does not appear to be awkward for Garoppolo with Lance. In fact, Garoppolo was the first 49ers player to get in touch with Lance as he reached out to someone with the team to get Lance’s number. That’s true leadership right there. You can’t ding Garoppolo on that part of him. He is a top-tier character and team guy. Lance is too. Neither guy is going to let it get awkward. Neither guy is going to get a big head. They aren’t like that. The 49ers feel very comfortable with that. If they weren’t, Garoppolo would have been gone already. 

The big thing in this will be when Lance is ready to go. It’ll be interesting to see when that will be. He’s a very smart guy that absorbs information quickly so he can learn the playbook faster than anyone. He ran a ton of similar stuff at North Dakota State. He’s been working with private coach John Beck, who is close with Shanahan, on a lot of the finer things we can assume now after the fact. He might be more ready than we think. 

The big thing for Lance will be reps. He only played 17 games in college and had the least amount of passes thrown by a QB taken in the first round in 40 years. He needs a ton of reps. He also needs real game action. He’s only played that one weird showcase game in the last 16 months. Does sitting on the bench another significant amount of time do him any good will be the big question to ask. Would he be better just getting in games right away and playing so he doesn’t get his growth stunted? These are fragile things Shanahan will have to handle. Lots of factors to take into account. 

The other thing is that Shanahan is making big changes to his offense it appears with this. It’s evolving. The offense will look way different with Lance than Garoppolo. How would he handle that transition if it would happen mid-season? Or does he sit Lance the whole year and just roll with Garoppolo and then flip the offense over for 2022 to avoid such a change halfway through? Even more fragile things to handle. 

The other thing will obviously be the market for Garoppolo. I look around the landscape of the NFL and I really don’t see a spot for him, as hard as that is to believe. You’d think a 29-year old Super Bowl starting QB would have a place to land. He may not just given the point we are in the offseason and the weird situations some teams are at QB. Lack of a market could make the best scenario to keep Garoppolo anyways. 

There is another option here that’s been theorized by people. This is much like what the 49ers did with Kaepernick for a bit in 2012 before he became the full-time starter and that is giving him certain packages that gets him in games. In theory, I don’t hate the idea as it would be a way to ease him into things and get him reps. But practically speaking, I am unsure about this idea. I think it creates an odd dynamic. Even if both QBs are not gonna make it awkward, a situation like this could throw a wrench into the mix that could be bad for both. A power struggle could be born from this. A question about which QB is the true leader of the group at that time comes into question. You have one foot in with both QBs like this and it’s hard and you can get stuck. I don’t love inviting that into my QB room with a guy I just spent a ton on to acquire. It’s a weird middling solution that could create more issues than it’s worth. It can be done right sure, but there are so many ways it can be done wrong too and you ruin the whole thing. 

The beauty of this decision is that it doesn’t need to be made immediately. As I said, the 49ers feel comfort in this current situation. They have time to see where it goes and can pivot if need be. If Lance is ready week 1, just start him and figure out whatever with Garoppolo. If he’s not ready, roll with Garoppolo. We could also see a Bradford situation. Some team has QB issues in training camp and gets desperate to find a guy fast and Garoppolo happens to be an option so they give up more than they should for him. What helped there, as well, is that Wentz looked way ahead of where they thought he’d be at the time. He was expected to sit a bit as well, but he was ready to go. Ironically, that situation paved the way for North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz to start week 1 for the Eagles his rookie year. Lance is from the same school. 

I personally think they’ll hold onto Garoppolo and try to have a Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes situation. But you can make the case they’ll just start Lance week 1 just as easily. As I said, nobody will know until whatever happens, happens. We’ll just have to see how it plays out. It won’t be decided very soon, but as the offseason rolls on, we’ll get a clearer picture. Nothing is cemented here. Things can happen, and they can happen fast. These things usually work themselves out too. 

Lance selection ends narrative about Kyle Shanahan

With the selection of Trey Lance, Kyle Shanahan put a narrative to rest that had been following him for years. This narrative being that Shanahan only likes one certain type of QB, with that being traditional pocket passers that can just do enough to run the offense. 

The narrative was brought on basically because of Kirk Cousins. Cousins was drafted by the Shanahan’s in the 4th round of the 2012 draft. Washington also took Robert Griffin III that year but it was clear that the Shanahan’s didn’t like him. They were fired from Washington in 2013.

Since then, Kyle Shanahan had a bevy of QBs with a similar skill set in Hoyer in Cleveland (he was opposed to the Browns taking Manziel), Matt Ryan in Atlanta and Garoppolo in San Francisco. The only one of these that was truly in Shanahan’s control was Garoppolo. The rest he kind of just had to work with because they were there when he was the offensive coordinator. 

It didn’t help Shanahan’s case that he was never exactly quiet about his love for Kirk Cousins. He’s admitted to it many times. So the narrative is about all these QBs but it is mainly about Cousins. People thought Shanahan was chasing a QB he coached for 3 whole starts before leaving Washington almost a decade ago. It was only really half-true, and I think it was overblown. 

This is all what lead to people thinking Shanahan was going to take Mac Jones. A not-very-athletic, pure pocket passer at QB whose top traits are accuracy and intelligence, two things Shanahan admittedly values a ton, but so does everyone. People thought this was the QB Shanahan fell in love with, only because that’s all he’s ever had to work with despite never really having a choice besides Garoppolo. Another part of it was people compared Fields and Lance to RGIII when the comparison is as lazy as it gets if you watch the QBs for even 5 minutes. 

We might never know for sure if Shanahan himself had a fundamental change at how he views the position or if the narrative about him was just overplayed speculation that was used as a springboard for clicks. Regardless, the narrative should now be laid to rest as Shanahan chose a QB who is different from any he has ever had before. He didn’t choose a guy that’s like Cousins, Ryan or Garoppolo. He chose a totally different style. Sorry Kirk Cousins narrative, it’s over. It’s not you, it’s Shanahan.