Pirates acquire Chris Archer

The Pirates made the splash of the trade deadline today by acquiring RHP Chris Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays. Going back to Tampa Bay in the deal is Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and a player to be named later. 

The Pirates receive the top starter on the market that is under cheap team control through 2021. While there’s questions about whether Archer is an ace or just a 2 or 3 starter is a moot point because he’s an excellent pitcher regardless. Some of his overlying numbers won’t suggest that but his underlying ones do. His K/9 is still close to 10 despite some “struggles” in that department and projects to improve slightly there. Also, his BB/9 is still low so his control is still very viable. He has also pitched to a .343 BABIP, well above the average of .300. As a result, his ERA may be 4.31 but his FIP of 3.62 means he’s pitched better than what his ERA shows and should settle in as a quality pitcher once again. Additionally, despite “struggling” (he’s not), he is still going to hit close to 3 WAR this season and is only a year removed from hitting 4.6 WAR as a pitcher. He projects to be better the rest of this year and in the future. 

As for what the Pirates gave up, it was expendable pieces in my opinion. Glasnow will be better in Tampa Bay but was only a reliever in Pittsburgh. Meadows is currently being blocked by Dickerson and the Pirates OF depth in the minors is awesome. The PTBNL won’t be Keller or Hayes and may not even be Baz (and Swaggerty can’t be dealt yet) so that’s all four of the Pirates top 100 prospects by MLB Pipeline and none will go in this deal most likely (Baz would be most likely of them to go but I don’t envision it). It’s a hefty return to the Rays but nothing the Pirates can’t recover from. 

In my opinion, both teams did very well. Rays reputation with pitchers will help Glasnow reach his potential and Meadows is really good. For the Pirates, they got a proven starter to go with Taillon and eventually Keller for a few years. 

Pirates acquire Keone Kela

While everyone was sleeping, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington and Rangers general manager Jon Daniels were busy doing work ahead of the 4 p.m non-waiver trade deadline this afternoon. The Pirates were the aggressor this time, acquiring closer Keone Kela from the Rangers in exchange for LHP prospect Taylor Hearn and a PTBNL (a lower-tier one than Hearn). 

Kela, 25, has had an interesting career to say the least. Though, it appears he’s finally put it together in 2018 after showing some of his potential in 2017 as well. This season, he’s pitched to a 2.97 FIP, is striking out nearly 11 batters per 9 innings and has already been worth 1 WAR, which is great for a reliever at this stage in the year. While he’s not the greatest reliever there is, he’s an effective one that can get outs regularly, and the Pirates will welcome that. 

He will likely step into the setup role for the Pirates to help Santana, Rodriguez and Crick get the ball to Vazquez (though this bullpen screams “play the matchups”). This move helps the Pirates shorten games even more significantly, which is a great strategy when the starters sometimes have trouble going 6+ innings. The bullpen is in great position to back up the starter’s flaws when they arise.

Going the other way is Taylor Hearn, a rising prospect that is held in pretty high regard. He was ranked 7th in the Pirates system according to MLB Pipeline and continually moving up and likely still will. He was the second piece acquired from the Nationals in 2016 for Melancon (Pirates impressively turned 2 months of Melancon into Vazquez and Kela). He’s a lefty with filthy stuff but is still a bit raw in AA. His ETA is 2019 but that rawness I mentioned might hold him back. He might also not stick as a starter, and there’s concerns he could flame out with that arm like many pitchers like that do. His ceiling is super high but his floor is super low. Yes, it’s a risk to lose him, but it’s a calculated risk in my opinion. 

As I said, Hearn is a tough loss for this system, especially one that has a lack of LHP depth. But Kela is controlled for the next couple years and is a legit bullpen arm to stick with Vazquez that gives this team a better chance to win the next couple of years, which is the goal after all. 

At some point, Huntington had to give up a legitimate prospect for big-time help at the MLB level, and he finally did it. This is a fair trade for both teams and I think both fan bases and both teams will like how this trade pans out.  

Should the Pirates trade Felipe Vazquez?

The Pirates are almost a guarantee to be sellers at the trade deadline, barring any insane move up in the standings. That seems very unlikely, so the Pirates figure to be looking to find trade avenues for their veterans, mainly Francisco Cervelli, Corey Dickerson, Josh Harrison and Ivan Nova. 

While those guys could bring the Pirates back some decent returns, there is one player in particular they have that will be a popular ask throughout this month and would bring the Pirates a major return. That guy would be Felipe Vazquez.

Despite the name change from Rivero to Vazquez, the guy is largely the same pitcher he was last season. In fact, in many ways he is better. His FIP of 2.09 would be better than last season, his K/9 is currently up from 10.51 to 12.21. His HR/9 is down as well, more than double in fact, from 0.48 all the way to 0.23. He is also on pace to outperform his WAR from last year (2.1 last year and already 1.4 this year). His walk rate has spiked, but that’s the only thing that looks like even a bit of a red flag, and it’s still not super concerning when mixed in with all that he’s improved on. A couple bad outings hurt his overlying numbers, but he’s been even better than last year in many areas. The guy is still a top-level reliever in the majors, and it’s not really debatable either. 

Besides that, he’s still only 27 years old (didn’t even turn 27 too long ago). He is still young and hitting his prime. He is also still under team control through 2021 plus 2 affordable team options. His salary won’t ever exceed $10M throughout the life of the 6 year deal (and both the $10M years are team options with cheap buyouts so that can be gotten out of if needed). Outside the options, his salary maxes out at $7.2M in 2021. That contract could turn into an insane surplus value and probably amongst the best team-friendly deals in the league. 

But given the state of affairs with the Pirates, should they take advantage of all this and cash in on Felipe Vazquez when he is still five and a half years away from free agency? With the growing need for high-level relief arms, especially at the trade deadline, the Pirates would almost undoubtedly receive an unbelievable return for the lefty flamethrower. 

The first question to ask is whether the trade makes sense from the Pirates perspective. Well, it depends on their plans. 

If the Pirates want to rebuild and get back to contention in 2-3 years, then trading Vazquez at possibly peak value would be the totally correct move. 

However, if the Pirates feel like they can contend next year, which they probably do think, then having Vazquez around on that team is more valuable than them trading him right now. Also, if he’s still pitching at a high-level next year and they still aren’t contending, then he would still bring a huge return next year. 

The problem with relievers is that they can be so volatile. A reliever can be good one year and bad the next. This was an issue many people saw with Vazquez going into this year and a big reason why people wanted to sell high on him last year. With Vazquez pitching at a high-level for a second straight year, the argument that he can be volatile holds a little less weight here. Any reliever, and player in general, can fall apart at any time. This isn’t specific to relievers. So you truly never know. I don’t believe fear of him declining is reason enough to trade him when there’s been no signs of such a decline happening. 

At the end of the day, I think it may come down to what it’d take to get the Pirates to part with Vazquez. Pirates likely would ask for the moon and more in order to part with the elite reliever they just gave a nice extension to. The Pirates don’t really have a reason to part with him, unlike they’ve had in other situations where they’ve traded guys. This is truly a situation where a team would need to blow the Pirates away in order to get Vazquez. The Pirates asking price would likely start with at least two high-end prospects, plus more. 

With the number of relievers available and team’s increasing unwillingness to part with top prospects, I don’t think any team would want to part with multiple top-tier guys in their system in order to get a reliever, as elite as that reliever may be. However, if any team is willing to overpay like that, then the Pirates have to at least consider it. A chance to add multiple elite prospects to the farm system is a hard opportunity to pass up, especially if the players are in AAA and will be in the MLB sooner rather than later. To be able to revamp your organization like that at the cost of one reliever is an even tougher opportunity to pass up. 

As I said though, I don’t expect any team to part with talent like that, even if it meant creating a super bullpen that can help them compete for a few more years. Pirates will want a big return, maybe more than any team will be willing to give, and that’s okay. If the Pirates can’t find the right trade for him, then they don’t lose anything by keeping him, especially since his value will likely still be high throughout his contract, as long as he is an effective reliever. 

Pirates are in a great position in a potential trade of Vazquez. They don’t have to be in a rush to trade him and they hold all the cards in any trade of the lefty hurler. If they don’t receive an offer that blows them completely away, they will be more than okay with holding onto Vazquez and enjoying watching him dominate for years to come.