Pirates need to move McCutchen down in the batting order

Andrew McCutchen has been the face of the Pirates for what has seemed like forever now. However, he had a disastrous 2016, even though he finished the season with two strong months. 2017 has, unbelievably, been even worse for Andrew McCutchen. The former MVP owns an OBP of .271 with a wOBA of .275, and a wRC+ of 69, well below average in all three statistics. His walk rate is still respectable at 9% but nowhere near where it used to be when pitchers feared him, and while his strikeout rate has returned to more normal levels, he's hitting a lot of soft contact to the pull side for routine grounders. In short, Andrew McCutchen is not the MVP or even the All-Star player he used to be, and may never reach that pinnacle again at this current pace. A sad reality that we may need to face. 

Through all this, however, Clint Hurdle remains steadfast in letting Andrew McCutchen hit right smack in the middle of the lineup in the 3 hole. This decision to do this night in and night out is killing the team on too many occasions. In turn, the debate about moving McCutchen out of the 3-hole to a lower position in the lineup, which was split 50-50 just 6 months ago, has turned into an obvious decision that needs to be made and nearly everyone agrees. 

I could probably go through the season so far and pull out at least a dozen instances, if not two dozen, where hitting McCutchen third has lead to a rally being squashed or at least hindered in its midst. There used to be a time where he was the guy you most wanted up in big spots, but sadly he has turned into the guy people seem to least want up in those big spots in which he'd thrive in even just 2 short seasons ago. 

The solution to Andrew McCutchen's issues may not be a moving him around in the lineup, but moving him in the lineup would be for the betterment of the team as a whole. And who knows? Maybe he gets moved down in the order and something clicks for him knowing he can relax a bit more in a much lesser-leverage area of the lineup. 

Given Andrew McCutchen's struggles and the team's current situation, they need to be open to any idea to help this team squeeze out every bit of production they can from every player they currently have. Right now, McCutchen hitting third is not maximizing anything; in fact, it is a major part as to why this lineup has not performed the way they are capable. I get that McCutchen is still "the guy" and will be until he's not with the Pirates anymore, but the time for him having his "own spot" in the lineup has passed because he has not proven to anyone recently that he deserves that. 

It was fine to have McCutchen hitting third to begin the year to see if he'd bounce back, but through nearly two months, he hasn't shown many glimpses of that. Therefore, I believe it is time for Clint Hurdle to make the tough move, that I'm sure he doesn't want to make, and move McCutchen down in the order to 6th or 7th in an effort to get him going as well as to make the lineup more productive as a whole. 

It's time to accept that Adam Frazier is a good hitter

Since bursting onto the scene in 2016, Pirates' utility man Adam Frazier has easily been one of the best hitters on the team. This season, in particular, he's been excellent with a .418 OBP, a wOBA of .390, and a wRC+ of 143. In case you don't know, all three of those are well above average. His strikeout rate of 12.1% is very respectable while his walk rate is only at 6.6%, which both combined will indicate he's putting the ball in play a ton. 

Then, there is the not so good. Adam Frazier, by many accounts, is due to regress and many point at his BABIP for that argument. Typically with BABIP, a below .300 means bad luck and a player is due to be better, while an above .300 means a player is due for some regression as .300 represents the typical average. Frazier's BABIP this season is a whopping .417, which means he is due for some sort of regression at some point. And while I agree the regression is coming, it won't be so bad to make him a bad hitter.

The reason I think this is mainly because of his low strikeout rate. A 12.1% strikeout rate, which I mentioned above, is very low and is just an indication that he continues to get the ball in play. This means that even if his BABIP regresses a bit, he's getting the ball in play enough to continue to get his fair share of hits. 

The best comparison example I've read of this is Placido Polanco vs Gary Bettis. Each player owned a career .313 BABIP, but Polanco was the way better hitter overall because he struck out far less and got the ball in play far more than Bettis, even though both players had an equal percentage chance of getting a hit when they got the ball in play. 

If Adam Frazier can keep his strikeout rate around where it is currently and just put the ball in play, he will continue to get his hits. Now, I doubt he will continue to hit as well as he has, but some players do defy the numbers. 

Will Adam Frazier ever be a batting champion? I doubt it. Will he become a legendary hitter? The odds are definitely stacked against him. However, it's not fair to say he is the luckiest hitter imaginable because he's nowhere close to that. Many indicators are not in his favor but many are in his favor as well. So, I think it's time to accept that Adam Frazier is a good hitter, and that's not such a bad thing right?

Jung Ho Kang's return has shifted into uncertain territory

In the early morning hours here in the United States, it was reported that Pirates' 3rd baseman Jung Ho Kang lost his appeal and the courts in South Korea upheld their sentence on Kang, which is an 8-month jail sentence that he can avoid if he stays clean for two years. 

Before the appeal but after the sentencing, Jung Ho Kang applied for a work visa to come to the U.S to continue his baseball career with the Pirates; his request for a visa was turned down, thus holding him in South Korea through at least the appeals process. But now that the process is over and things are clearing up and we know Kang's sentence won't be reduced, the question of Jung Ho Kang's return shifts from a question of "when" to a question of "if". 

Knowing that Kang's visa was denied before the appeal could signify that they wanted to let the appeal process play out and wanted to make certain Kang in the country for it; however such a thing seems like stretch considering the circumstances. So instead, it is likely they did not feel that Kang deserved a work visa to the United States given his history of crimes in South Korea. And now that the court has upheld their decision on the sentencing, you have to place a very slim chance that his work visa request would be accepted this time around. 

The twists and turns of this Jung Ho Kang saga could have your head spinning, and for good reason. Here's one thing to wrap your head around though: it doesn't appear Kang will be back in the United States playing baseball anytime soon, and there will certainly be wonders of if he will ever play baseball professionally ever again. I'm not saying there's no chance that he returns, but now we've have entered the part of this saga where the idea of him not returning is something to prepare for. 

Josh Bell is already good and he's going to get better

Josh Bell, selected in the 2011 MLB draft by the Pirates, was given his initial call up by the Pirates in 2016 and proceeded to wow us with a single in his first at bat and a grand slam in his encore performance. Since then, he's been going through the rookie peaks and valleys, as is usual. However, this 24-year old out of Irving, Texas has already proven that he can be a special player, and he is only going to continue to improve. 

First let's start with the thing he's most known for; his bat. Bell possesses a rare quality for a hitter and one that many players desire. That being a quality mixture of plate discipline, ability to hit it the other way almost at will, and some power to boot. 

Josh Bell didn't show off his power stroke as much in the minors or in his initial MLB experience, but this year we have seen a change. He's hit for more power in terms of doubles and homers are starting to come much more often than they ever have before. 

However, at a minor sacrifice of showing some more power, Josh Bell has sacrificed a bit of his ability to hit the ball the opposite way and maybe is pressing in more at-bats than usual, leading to a lower OBP (his OBP in 2016 was .368 and so far is down to .323 this year) and a higher strikeout rate (up 12.5% to 21% currently) at the sake of more run production overall. This could also be attributed to him still being a young player that needs to adjust to everything that comes at him, but most likely it's a bit of everything. 

Now let's talk about his defense. When Josh Bell came up to the majors, his defense was bad. It was bad enough that there were worries he'd never figure it out. However, he has looked way better in 2017. He's no magician over there, but he's trending in the correct direction for sure. Even if you just watch him, he seems more comfortable at 1st base, and the numbers seem to back it up. He has a DRS (defensive runs saved) of 1, as opposed to that number being -3 last year. Additionally his UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) this year is 0.2 this year as opposed to -2.2 last year, and his UZR/150 is at 1.8 this season while it was -32.8 last year. All these numbers combined with just watching him shows he's shown major growth defensively at 1B. 

Josh Bell is growing into a great hitter while also improving by leaps and bounds defensively everyday it seems. At this current trajectory, it's hard to envision that Josh Bell won't be a terrific baseball player. Pirates have finally found a staple 1st baseman that they hope they can plug in there for years to come.  

Pirates shouldn't begin a full-scale rebuild

The Pirates are off to a pretty horrific start in 2017. This has prompted folks to already begin looking at what the July trade season may look like for the team. Among the ideas being bandied about is the thought of the Pirates going through a rebuild. Well, I'm here to explain why that shouldn't and won't be the case. 

Firstly, I like to clarify what the meaning of a rebuild is as it relates to this. Often, a rebuild in the MLB signifies when a team feels they need a big organizational cleanse at the MLB level. This includes trading away almost everyone, dispensable or not, to stock up young talent, and even firing some folks from top to bottom. Usually, it results in the organization bringing in fresh faces that don't have any sort of chance at first but eventually, when the pieces align correctly, the team can compete again; a process that can take anywhere from 3-8 years generally. 

Knowing that meaning of a rebuild, I don't think the Pirates are in any sort of situation to tear it up and restart the organization. 

One reason for this is because they've been slowly setting themselves up to prevent a full-scale rebuild by transitioning into a young core. Notice how the Pirates have strategically chipped away at the roster in the recent years by losing Melancon, Walker, Alvarez, Martin, Morton, Locke, Liriano, etc, with McCutchen, Watson, and others soon to follow suit. To transition, they went with the younger guys like Marte, Cole, Polanco, Taillon, Glasnow, Bell, Kuhl, Rivero, Frazier etc, with Meadows and others on the doorstep. This plan is looking like it has been in place this whole time, right beneath our noses. 

Looking at the Pirates purely by what they have, you see that Marte and Polanco are under great extensions for the next handful of seasons, Cole is around through 2019, Taillon, Glasnow, Bell, Rivero, Frazier, and Kuhl all are not even close to being free agents yet, and the Pirates even have solid veterans such as Nova, Cervelli, Harrison, and Freese under contract for a bit as well to help the young core. 

Looking into the prospect side of the equation, the Pirates have many prospects coming through that are ready to make an impact, and none are more notable than Austin Meadows (projects to be in MLB in 2017), Kevin Newman (projects to be in MLB in 2018/2019), and Mitch Keller (projects to be in MLB 2019/2020). These guys are 3 of the MLBs top 50 prospects and all figure to be a major piece to the puzzle as we go along. Adding these three, and some others, into this mixture will make the young core all the more better, especially considering much of the young core will be well-developed and hitting their stride, even before these other guys get there, so the string of talent won't cease. 

Why do I mention all this? Well it's because the evidence would lean towards the thought that the Pirates have already had this plan in their sights as early as about 2013-2014 and knew just what was coming. They may have known that 2013-2015 was a great time for them to compete, while also knowing that it actually wasn't the best time for them to compete for a championship. Rather, 2018-2021 are their best years to compete if everything goes right, even at the sacrifice of 2016 and/or 2017. 

With a roster with all the talent they have and a roster that will inject even more talent into it in the very near future, it's easy to see that the Pirates are nowhere near rebuilding time yet. If they blow it up now, they jeopardize wasting years of blossoming young talent and players in prime years because they were underachievers for a year or two. Granted, a slight reload may be necessary to usher in this young talent a bit more, but that's about the extent of what should be done. 

In the end, a rebuild, by basic meaning, is not necessary for the Pirates. The roster is about to have a bunch of young talent blossom all at once, and there will be fireworks when it does. I know it's hard to see now with a team decimated by injuries, suspensions, and anything else, and just a team that is struggling in general. But I can assure you that this Pirates organization has something great brewing, and a rebuild would put that plan in grave danger. 

Just what is Chad Kuhl's ceiling?

Chad Kuhl has been an MLB starting pitcher for almost a full year now. In that time, he's proven that he can be a decent back-end rotation starter. However, there are many times where you watch him and have to wonder if he has what it takes to remain a major league caliber starting pitcher. 

The main thing people point to are his splits against the lefties as opposed to righties. This season so far, Chad Kuhl has compiled quite a discrepancy. Lefties get on base at a .493 clip against him with a wOBA of .498 and lefties have gotten much more production in every area so far against Kuhl. Righties, on the other hand, only get on-base at a .264 clip and have an even lower wOBA against him at .217. The production from righties is also much lower than that of lefties. And this isn't a new thing for Chad Kuhl; you can go through his minor league career and see that lefties historically hit better off of him. 

But what is the reason lefties hit better off of him? Well, the main reason to be offered is the lack of an out pitch against lefties, most notably a lack of a reliable changeup. The changeup can be a crucial pitch for pitchers, and a lot of pitchers need it in their repertoire to get to the next level. Kuhl has a changeup, but it has yet to be super effective for him to this point. 

So far, you look at Chad Kuhl's numbers, and they don't look bad for a 5th starter. Most 5th starters around the league are very meh, and maybe Chad Kuhl is no different. However, you look at his splits against left-handed hitters, and you get very worried because a team can just stack the deck against Kuhl with mostly lefty batters if they have some. This was a similar issue that Juan Nicasio faced in his career before his move to the bullpen, where he's been mostly a mainstay. 

In any case, Chad Kuhl has a ceiling of a backend rotation starter, and he would be a better 5th starter than most. However, you can't help but wonder if his specific talents wouldn't be best utilized out of the bullpen, similar to Nicasio. I'm a big believer in Chad Kuhl, even whilst I have my skepticisms about whether he's an actual MLB-caliber starting pitcher. It all boils down to his changeup. If he masters it, he can be a 3 or 4 starter potentially; if not, he's going to prompt a move to the bullpen eventually. 

Pirates weathered the April showers

Pirates finished April with an overall 11-13 record after a lot of wildness, which included sweeps for weeks it seemed. This usually doesn't look like an encouraging sign for a team, but upon consideration of what happened to the Pirates in April, I at least feel like the team came out okay. 

It all started with Jung Ho Kang. It was reported towards the tail end of Spring Training that Jung Ho Kang was denied a visa request to return to the United States. This was followed by reports stating that Jung Ho Kang may not return this season at any point. This, of course, dealt a major blow to the Pirates plans this season of re-installing a premier power threat into this lineup.

Then came Marte news. The news of Starling Marte's PED suspension shook the baseball world. Marte was reportedly busted in Spring Training and did not appeal the suspension that was announced hours before a game in St Louis. The Pirates didn't only get swept in that series, but they lost their best player for a major chunk of the season as he won't be eligible to return until late-July. 

Next came the onslaught of injuries. Yes, I know every team goes through injuries, but to pile them on to losing two of a team's best players is a tough pill to swallow. The injury bug began with Adam Frazier going down to an injury. After that, it was Bastardo. Then, it hit Pirates third baseman David Freese, who was filling in for Kang (so much for that). 

But how did the Pirates fill in for these players? Well, for Kang, they went with Freese as I said, but now Freese is hurt as well, so we are seeing a return of Josh Harrison at 3rd base. And with Harrison at 3rd and Frazier not active, a combo of 25th man Alen Hanson, role player Phil Gosselin, and Gift Ngoepe (not even seen as a prospect anymore as much as a career minor leaguer to many) will have to do. To handle outfield duties without Marte, we have seen an array of guys play RF while McCutchen has moved back to center. Pirates called up Jose Osuna to play a majority at RF, but John Jaso has seen a pretty good bit of time out there as well; they even called up career minor leaguer Danny Ortiz to handle some outfield. 

In addition, the Pirates have had to juggle the bullpen around with all the roster moves. Bastardo went down and since that point, we have seen both Dovydas Neverauskas and Johnny Barbato spend time in the Pirates bullpen at various times. 

Even recently catcher Francisco Cervelli was banged up and will miss a few days but not expected to hit the DL. That caused the Pirates to call up Single-A backup catcher John Bormann just because he was the closest to Miami at the time. Additionally, Chad Kuhl took a liner drive, off the bat of Dee Gordon, to the knee, but that too doesn't appear to be serious, one would hope. 

Besides having to juggle the roster around because of injuries that pushed many replacement level players into action, the Pirates have had to navigate possibly the most brutal April schedule in all of baseball. Just looking at the schedule, you can see the toughness it held. Going to Boston, facing the Cubs twice (once at Wrigley and once at PNC), having to face the Yankees, going to Busch Stadium, and even the Reds were tearing it up when the Pirates faced them early on, and the Marlins aren't an awful baseball team by any stretch. The schedule was full of tough games, and while every game in the league is tough, the schedule the Pirates had to push through was especially so. 

Between all the injuries and roster shuffling and playing games with a roster containing a few minor leaguers, as well as having a brutal schedule, it's a surprise that this team is even 11-13. The way I see it, when challenges like this occur, a team can run from it and use it as an excuse, or they can embrace it and drive forward and get stronger, even without their best being present. Right now, the Pirates have shown that they aren't backing down just because of the harsh circumstances they've been placed under. The Pittsburgh Pirates are not even close to finished yet, and considering the situation, I am even sort of shocked. This baseball team weathered the April showers, and you know what they say about April showers bringing May flowers.