Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Pirates situation at closer

One major question for the Pirates this offseason has been "who will be the closer?" People have contemplated over Tony Watson and Felipe Rivero mainly, but things sort of took a turn when the Pirates signed Daniel Hudson to a contract that included a "games finished" incentive. While that could just have miniscule meaning, it could also mean a lot and give us an insight as to what the Pirates are going to do at closer in 2017.

While Watson closed for the Pirates after the Melancon trade, he looked somewhat shaky (he was kind of off all of 2016 so it likely was not the closer role that was bad for him). Rivero has long been speculated to be the next Pirates' brilliant find for closer. Hudson we talked about, and Nicasio could also close. Basically, the Pirates don't have one guy that is an elite closer, but rather many guys who are very capable of doing such and each brings with them a different thing to the table for a lofty role. So, in the end, who gets the closer's job? Well, what if I told you it could, in fact, be all of them? Yes, I am eluding to the concept of a "closer by committee" situation, and I think for the Pirates, it would be the perfect move. 

Firstly, we start with what each player brings to the table for the job. Watson brings some experience having closed last year for a good amount of time, and it has seemed his whole Pirates career he's been stuck behind someone and has not been able to lock down the closer role (Hanrahan, Grilli, and Melancon all came from out of the organization to get the closer job over Watson). Next, Rivero brings the obvious skill set that you would want as a closer, despite not having the experience. After that, Hudson has minimal closing experience in Arizona but does bring the closer's skill set you want as well. Nicasio also brings such a skill set with a great deal of backend bullpen experience under his belt. So, overall all these guys have something to offer and two are lefties and two are righties, so between these four, I think they can cover just about anything. 

But why go closer by committee? Well, I think it's the best thing for the Pirates current situation. I look at this team, and I don't see a definitive closer that I'd want to send out there to close every single time regardless of matchups. However, I do see four guys I trust a lot to handle the role given to them on any given night, whether it be the 4th inning or the 18th inning. And while I wouldn't give one the ball to close every single time, I'd definitely let any of them close out any given game, if that makes sense. 

Another reason to go with this concept is to play the matchups. Playing the matchups is becoming as popular as ever in baseball. The Pirates and others have been putting more faith in analytics in order to put their players in the greatest situation possible, even if a move is seen as unpopular. In turn, the Pirates could certainly just see the 9th inning as "just another inning" in this case and look at matchups and pick which pitcher they have left that is the best for the situation at hand. Giving themselves four potential options would give them maximum flexibility for who goes in the 9th, even if one or two of the four potential guys that can close are used that night in previous situations (it helps to have two lefties and two righties for this too). 

This sort of approach not only gives the Pirates matchup flexibility, but it gives them a chance to control the game when the bullpen gets in there knowing they don't need to save a specific reliever to close. Therefore, they can then afford to use one of the four in the 6th inning where you wouldn't traditionally see them because they know they have don't have a reliever sitting out there designated for the closer's role. They can use a closer-type guy in the 6th or 7th and not worry about it because they essentially have four of those types. 

Overall, I don't see one guy the Pirates should turn to every single time to close out games. I instead see four guys that are all potentially adequate for the role and each deserving of the shot to do so. This puts the Pirates in a unique position but a good position nonetheless. Having a closer by committee for this dinstinct Pirates bullpen would probably be the best decision the team can make, and it seems like the bullpen has been designed for such an idea to take hold and become reality. 

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Who earns the Pirates 5th rotation spot?

Heading into the offseason, it was vital for the Pirates to add at least 1 starting pitcher. While 2 would have been preferable, the Pirates filled their rotation need with the one they added by re-signing Ivan Nova. The top four in the rotation will come as Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Chad Kuhl, that's certain. However, the 5th spot in the rotation is definitely up for grabs as Spring Training gets underway in Bradenton, Florida. The Pirates will essentially have 4 guys that will compete for the 5th starter job this spring. Those guys being Tyler Glasnow, Drew Hutchison, Steven Brault, and Trevor Williams. Each of them have a case for belonging in the rotation, but in the end there is only one spot. I will sift through each guy and see the cases they have and then see which one should have the most inside track on the final rotation spot. 

We start with Tyler Glasnow. He is one of the Pirates bright, young starters that is destined for a spot alongside Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon in the rotation sooner rather than later. The case for Glasnow is that he is the young guy and probably the option with the highest ceiling and potential of the four. Also, this may be the best time for the Pirates to let Glasnow take his lumps in the majors instead of continually dominating in AAA with no sense of accomplishment or moving forward as a player. It may benefit them in the long run to let Glasnow figure it out as he goes. 

Next is Drew Hutchison. Acquired in the Liriano trade in August of 2016, Hutchison was tendered a contract in 2017 by the Pirates, maybe in hopes he could be an option in the 2017 rotation. The case that Hutchison provides is that he is a more veteran presence. Despite being young himself, he's been around the block a few times as a starter in the MLB, most notably in the rigid AL East. Hutchison also still has some redeeming qualities that maybe Ray Searage can tap into in the pursuance of getting the former Opening Day starter to where he and the Pirates wish for him to go. The veteran presence and the fact the Pirates are paying him like an MLB player might suggest he has the inside track on the position. 

The third one is Steven Brault. In limited action in the MLB in 2016, Brault showed he's at least capable of starting a bit in the MLB. Whether he can do it consistently is always a question with young guys. The case to be made for Brault is that the rest of the Pirates rotation are righties, and he would represent a lefty in the rotation. Pirates have seemed to put an emphasis on having lefties in the rotation, most of the time multiple ones in fact (even sometimes three). So having a rotation of 5 righties may seem peculiar, but if the best 5 starters are righties, so be it. It also balances out somewhere as Pirates may end up with 4 or 5 lefties in the bullpen. However, being a lefty here may give Steven Brault at least some sort of leverage on the position. 

The last guy is Trevor Williams and likely the guy that would need to do the most to earn a rotation spot this spring. He would need to wow the Pirates management to earn a spot. The case of Trevor Williams isn't much of one though, as he brings really nothing to the table the other guys don't besides a nice charisma. While charisma is great, it needs to be backed up with good pitching. While I'm a believer in Trevor Williams personally, I can't say the Pirates are convinced he will pan out and his up and down stint in the majors in 2016 doesn't make anyone any more comfortable in that regard. 

Personally, I feel that Tyler Glasnow deserves the job as the 5th starter, but realistically I think it'll be Hutchison or Brault. Pirates could feel they either need another veteran arm in there or they need a lefty to balance it out a little bit. There's still a chance they add somebody late in the process, but with the options they have now these guys will duke it out for the final spot in the rotation. 

Monday, February 13, 2017

Making a Pirates lineup

The Pirates lineup will never be etched in stone. Clint Hurdle is very proactive in playing matchups and sending out many different lineup looks throughout a 162-game schedule, and that will not change. However, it's fun to look at what a "normal" lineup would look like (though the normal lineup is probably seen less than the not normal lineups). So I will make my own Pirates lineup and discuss my decisions to put each guy where I do.

1: C Francisco Cervelli:
Anyone that told you that a leadoff man needed to be fast might have taught you wrong. The main purpose for a leadoff man is to get on base a pretty good bit. Cervelli does this and looking at the Pirates lineup, he's the best fit here. His almost consistent .370 OBP speaks for itself as to why he has deserved this lineup spot, and I do not mind sacrificing his driving in runs potential because that's never been his strength anyways. His strength has always been getting on-base. 

2: 1B Josh Bell
I was debating putting Josh Bell at leadoff but just couldn't. I think he's suited to be the number 2 hitter. It gives him good protection in the lineup and his ability to see the ball and plate discipline of someone who has been in the MLB for ten years is special. Pirates setting their lineup up with two consecutive table setters is perfect, and Bell is unique that he can be a quality run producer too, another reason I didn't want him to bat leadoff. 

3: RF Andrew McCutchen:
While it wasn't the best 2016 for Andrew, I think he's best suited in this lineup for the 3 hole. He's still a threat at the plate in this league and moving him out of the 3 spot accomplishes absolutely nothing. It's not about not moving him out of there because it would make him mad or any other excuse people come up with. He proved he was okay with it in 2016. It's about moving him out of the three hole would not make the lineup better. 

4: 3B Jung Ho Kang:
I'm assuming Kang will be there on Opening Day here. Anyway, while I do not think the cleanup hitter needs to hit for massive power, if you have a guy capable you don't think twice about putting him there. Kang is capable and then some. If healthy and not in trouble, Kang can easily hit 30-35 HRs as he makes homers look effortless. Pirates need to stick their big thumper at cleanup. 

5: CF Starling Marte: 
Marte gives the Pirates an intriguing lineup dynamic. A run producer that can steal bases with ease. He's a true all-around player. And batting 5th means he doesn't need to sacrifice either of those things in which he does so well. He can still produce runs and swipe bags to give the guys behind him better chances to also produce runs. Marte gives the Pirates a nice dynamic as a 5 hitter.

6: LF Gregory Polanco: 
Wait? How did Polanco get pushed to 6th? This just goes to show how deep the Pirates lineup is. I wanted to put Bell down here but he fit better at 2. However, batting 6th isn't such a bad thing as this lineup is deep. Polanco has a great bat and can certainly produce runs from any spot in the lineup. Not only can he hit 25-30 HRs, but he can also give you plenty of doubles. He's a player capable of producing a lot of runs, even hitting 6th. 

7th: 2B Josh Harrison:
Josh Harrison has been on the decline offensively but can still produce runs and could be a big commodity if he is able to do so out of the 7 hole in the lineup. He's not good enough to hit at the top of the lineup but can still be a useable player at the plate in the right spot. The bottom of the lineup is that spot, in my opinion. 

8th: SS Jordy Mercer: 
Poor Jordy Mercer, consistently being asked to hit 8th, but here we are again. However, if Mercer is your 8 hitter, you are doing great. Mercer is certainly capable of holding his own with the bat, and even though the position of shortstop is shifting towards offense, I would not mind if Mercer is not a big offensive threat as long as he gets it done on defense. 

This is the Pirates lineup I want to see most. Though we will see many looks in the lineup this season, this is the one I think would produce the most for the Pirates. Given each player's unique skill set, I think a lineup that looks like this is the best potential lineup to produce big-time offense. 

Friday, February 10, 2017

Pirates acquire Phil Gosselin

The Pirates announced that they have acquired infielder Phil Gosselin from the Diamondbacks in exchange for minor league pitcher Frank Duncan. 

Gosselin was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks after they signed Daniel Descalso. The 28 year old is controlled through 2020 as he will not hit arbitration for the first time until next offseason. The West Chester, Pennsylvania native hit .277 in 2016 with the Diamondbacks in 220 at-bats. He's a career .283 hitter, but in less than 500 at-bats. He can play many positions but he is primarily a 2nd and 3rd baseman. 

Frank Duncan reached AAA in 2016 and pitched well there. He was a sleeper to make an impact in Pittsburgh but was way down on the depth chart. He may see a better opportunity to make an impact in Arizona, a team with less MLB pitching depth. 

The acquisition is interesting as the Pirates already seem to have utility players that can provide similar production or better in Adam Frazier and Alen Hanson. The one fallout that is being considered here is that the Pirates know something regarding Jung Ho Kang that we don't know and they may not be preparing to have Kang on Opening Day. Therefore, they added Gosselin as insurance since he can play 3B. While that sounds crazy, it's something that must be considered given the twists and turns of the Jung Ho Kang saga. 

Overall, this is an interesting deal for the Pirates considering the way the roster looks already. Gosselin, at this moment doesn't provide the Pirates with anything they don't already have and may not be an upgrade anywhere. However, this is a lower risk move that could be beneficial if Gosselin continues to put up the numbers he put up with the Diamondbacks, even if it is in a limited role.