Friday, December 30, 2016

Pirates need to deviate from their model to get an ace

The Pirates model for remaining competitive long-term has been well-liked around the league. The results haven't lied either as the Pirates went to the playoffs three straight years and have amongst the most wins in the entire league over the last four years. These results are very good, but I think most people agree that it is time to take the next step and go for it. And not the "mortgage the whole future for a short-term asset" type of go for it. A more smart kind of go for it. 

The talk is rampant around Jose Quintana in Pirates land right now because of all the rumors, and rightfully so because he'd be a fantastic add. He's got 4 years of control left at a cheap rate and is one of the best the American League has to offer. Because of this, it is easy to see why he would be a great and smart get for the Pirates as he'd cost a lot, but the value coming back would be enormous. I said before that the Pirates NEED Quintana. However, now I think there is one pitcher in the league that the Pirates NEED more. It's a bolder move but still would be an incredibly smart move for the Pirates to make. 

The guy I am talking about is Chris Archer. Archer is the very electric Rays right-handed ace capable of making hitters look silly and bringing an even empty Tropicana Field to its feet at any time. He is very highly-regarded and has had sustained success in his good amount of time in the MLB. He hit a minor bump in the road in 2016 but got back to his form the second half of the season, and there is no reason to think he won't continue to be the guy he has been in 2013-2015 and the last half of 2016, if not better. 

He, like Quintana, is signed to one of the more affordable deals in the league. Some may argue his deal is better than Quintana's, which is a valid argument. He's controlled for 5 more years at a rate that would almost make any team that would have him cry tears of joy. 

What makes Archer such an attractive target goes beyond his age and contract though. It's about what he could do with the Pirates that could make anyone salivate. He's got all the tools that Ray Searage likes. A great fastball with an array of off-speed pitches, even if the control isn't all there just yet. Despite some issues, Archer has been downright unfair to face at times. If Searage gets a hold of him, I think we could see a transformation of Archer into one of the best of the best in the NL, capable of dueling with the likes of the Kershaw's, Bumgarner's, Arrieta's, and Syndergaard's of the National League. 

It's also important to point out that nearly every pitcher that has moved out of the AL East has gotten better. Even the Pirates have been helped by this with guys like Burnett and Nova. There's reasonable expectation to think that Archer would also benefit from leaving that division. 

Now, lets go over the cost. It would be higher than that of Quintana, but I believe so much more worth it. Talks would likely need to start at Glasnow, Bell, and Newman, which I'd be okay with. Then after that, I imagine one of two more pieces would go after that, maybe even three. A hefty cost, but I think the Pirates are deep enough in the farm where they can make this trade happen without mortgaging their entire future. For a long-term asset like Archer, I think these guys that combined maybe have a full season of MLB experience under their belt would be okay to deal away in this specific trade. Yes, the sting of it might hurt for a bit, but it would definitely pay off once Chris Archer headlines one of the best rotations the NL would have to offer for quite awhile, starting in 2017. 

This is certainly the kind of trade Huntington should make if he wants to take it to the next level while not deviating too far away from what the organization has been doing so well. They have a ton of their core around for three years or more and Meadows, who would not be in the trade, will replace McCutchen at some point or another. The team could easily recoup some prospect loss by dealing McCutchen, Harrison, or others or even trade Archer in 3-4 years when his value would still be very high. In my opinion, this is a move that needs to be made by the Pirates this offseason. There is no time like the present as the core is around for awhile, the farm system is as deep as it will ever be, and it is the perfect time to strike. 

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Re-assessing the Francisco Liriano trade

When the Pirates traded Francisco Liriano along with Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez at the trade deadline to Toronto to unload Liriano's suddenly lofty salary, it was met with a lot of criticism. And GM Neal Huntington did not give fans a reason to cheer about it by shoving "financial flexibility" down people's throats. You can obviously see why people were upset by this. However, a couple of new developments have come to light to make the trade not look so bad. In fact, the trade actually looks pretty good right about now. 

Firstly, since the trade, Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez have dropped off a lot. Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez went from high in top 10 in Blue Jays weak farm system to outside the top 10. They have each dropped off by a ton as both have major flaws that are now starting to show up. Neither player projects to be anything special at this point. I am certain Both the Blue Jays and Pirates knew this when the trade was made. The value of both those guys has plummeted and was really never as high as many originally may have thought.

Secondly, the Pirates have used that financial flexibility from the trade to vastly help the 2017 roster. This offseason, the Pirates have signed Ivan Nova and Daniel Hudson to contracts. These contracts given will combined to be about a total commitment in 2017 to what Liriano would have made (not counting performance bonuses on any of the deals). With Liriano on the books, these moves would not have been possible. 

In the end, the Pirates turned 2 fringe prospects and a very declining pitcher in for Drew Hutchison, Daniel Hudson, and Ivan Nova, at least as far as 2017 goes. Looking back at it, I think it looks really good. Dumping one of the worst pitchers in the NL in 2016 with two prospects who don't figure to amount to too much to get 3 pitchers is a good deal, in my opinion. 

So, the Liriano trade was not a bad trade. In fact, it was a good trade looking back. It was a hard trade to see working at the time, but now seeing all the developments and results of it, I think it's easy to see that this trade has actually made the Pirates much better as they head into 2017. 

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Other pitching options for Pirates if they do not land Quintana

All the talk recently amongst Pirates fans and media has been about Jose Quintana, a rightfully so as many insiders have reported that the Pirates are seriously involved on landing the left-hander. However, there is still a good chance that he doesn't land with the Pirates purely based on just the vast amount of teams in on him (it's just simple probability). If such a trade does not come to pass, there are still some pitchers that would be starters towards the top of the rotation long-term that the Pirates could land. 

1) Eduardo Rodriguez/Drew Pomeranz (Red Sox): Red Sox have some depth at starting pitching, which is never bad, but they have 6 guys for 5 spots, even after dealing Buchholz to the Phillies. Because of this, I don't think Dombroski is done dealing (he never is). Red Sox could very well look to replenish their farm system by trading a starting pitching asset in a weaker market. Eduardo Rodriguez is one option. He's young and very controllable as well as talented but probably could still be had at a big price. If Pirates included Keller and Bell, they could probably land him because guys like him just aren't readily available. It'd be a hefty cost, but he's controlled for quite awhile and is just starting to come into his own. Then there's Pomeranz. Pomeranz seems to more expendable after the Red Sox got Chris Sale and are now overloaded on lefties. Pomeranz was, not surprisingly, hurt with the Red Sox after a nice stint in San Diego. His value is way down as opposed to where it was when he was dealt to Boston last July. I could see the Pirates getting him at a lower rate and banking on him to return to his Padres form and fill in as a number 3 starter. He'd be a nice lefty that the Pirates rotation needs, and Searage may be just the kind of guy to work wonders with him. 

2) Chris Archer (Rays): Archer has potential to be one of the best pitchers in the entirety of the league. Despite a rocky 2016, he finished very strong and looked more like the Archer of old that was on well on his way to being one of the best in the AL. His contract is valued very highly as it is similar to Quintana's but with an additional year. Combined that with the fact that many feel Archer will be better over the life of his contract than Quintana, and you have a pitcher that is very much worth getting. He'd also be getting out of the AL East, which makes pitchers automatically better. His ceiling is super high, and he's proven he can most certainly reach it or at least get very close. He'd be an automatic ace and a game-changer for the Pirates for 5 years and Searage would turn him into a top-flight NL pitcher that can compete with Bumgarner, Kershaw, or Syndergaard. He's a guy I would most definitely give up Glasnow, Bell, and Newman for. He'd be a major difference-maker for a long time. 

3) Sonny Gray (Athletics): Gray is an interesting case as he is an awesome pitcher, but 2016 was a total disaster for him. He was hurt as well as ineffective. He did show signs of life at times, and could easily return to form under Ray Searage. Pirates showing willingness to part with top prospects could lead them to go after Gray if all else fails with Quintana and others. Pirates could certainly land Gray with a top prospect in the deal, but there is another angle here. 

A's need a CF and are starved for a bat as they have been trying to get Dyson or others for CF and offered more money than Cleveland to get Encarnacion. The Pirates just so happen to have a CF that has a pretty good bat too in Andrew McCutchen. Both Gray and McCutchen both are great players that just had down years and may need a change to bounce back. I could see a swap centered around Gray and McCutchen being something that could come together. A straight swap wouldn't happen but a swap with them and other pieces could, in fact, be a great move for both teams. A's would control McCutchen for 2 years on a modest deal, especially compared to what they offered to Encarnacion. Pirates would control Gray for 3 years on his rookie deal so his contract would never get out of hand. Deal could very well work great for both sides. 

The Pirates search for another starting pitcher, even a top one, should not end with Jose Quintana. There are other options out there that would certainly intrigue the Pirates and could give the Pirates very good stability in the rotation for multiple years. While I still think the Pirates need to get Quintana, there are certainly plenty of other options that the Pirates could look into if that option falls through. 

Monday, December 26, 2016

Two players Pirates cannot give up in a Jose Quintana trade

There has been a lot of talk about the Pirates and getting Jose Quintana. There has been rampant speculation over the trade and what it might look like. There has also been a lot of talk over what the Pirates should and should not give up. I would personally put any prospect on the table in this trade except two guys, those guys being Austin Meadows and Josh Bell. I will explain why they can ill-afford to trade either of those two guys. 

Firstly, Austin Meadows. Everyone knows that he is likely off-limits in nearly any trade given that he isn't only one of the very best prospects in the entire league, and not only is he so close to the MLB, and not only has he crushed it at every level of the minors and has advanced through pretty swiftly, but he is the eventual replacement to Andrew McCutchen. He might even be patrolling an OF slot in PNC Park by June of 2017. Because of his importance to the future of the Pirates, the return a team would have to give for the Pirates to even start to consider giving Meadows away in a deal has to be very lofty, I'm sure. 

Secondly, on to Josh Bell. Bell is highly regarded as one of, if not the most advanced hitter for his age the Pirates have had since Barry Bonds. There aren't many better comps to beginning of careers than that. His lengthier stay in minors was solely based on defense alone. He burst onto the scene by hitting a grand slam in his first AB in majors and was very good when he was up in the MLB, showing a unique combo of plate discipline, control of the bat, and power. This is very rare and giving that up would be a massive mistake. The other thing about Bell is that he is at least capable of playing 1st base. The Pirates haven't had stability at that position in quite awhile and if Bell even pans out at close to average defensively at 1st base, he will become very serviceable. His defense at 1st base will probably end out as better than Alvarez's while Bell's bat also projects overall as better even if his power won't be as big. Bell is the type of player that can give stability at 1st base, and that is just what the Pirates need right now. Just like Meadows, the need that the Pirates have for a guy like Bell would surely mean a very lofty return would need to be on their way back for Pirates to even consider it. 

Jose Quintana is a great pitcher, and I would love to have him. He would make the Pirates a major threat in NL and the entire league. However, the Pirates' need to keep Bell and Meadows is greater, in my opinion. If the White Sox want one of them in a trade for even a guy like Quintana, I think the Pirates have to walk away and look elsewhere and continue to build great depth. 

Friday, December 23, 2016

What would it take for the Pirates to land Jose Quintana?

There has been a lot of debate in recent days about what it would take for the Pirates to get Jose Quintana. Quintana compiled his best season in 2016 with a 3.25 ERA and a 5.2 WAR. He's also been a workhorse, having pitched over 200 innings and over 30 starts in each of the past 4 seasons. There's no doubt that he is a guy every other pitching staff would love to have and entering his age 28 season and having a very team-friendly contract, why not? 

Just what would it take to land Quintana? I've seen this debate go down everywhere and have participated myself, I won't lie. I've seen everything from Meadows, Bell, and Glasnow to trade speculations like Glasnow, Tucker, Diaz, Brault and everything in between. Well, I'm here to try to give a definitive answer to what Pirates would need to give up to pry loose the star lefty. 

Firstly, I know we all look at what White Sox reported ask was for Quintana from Astros and Yankees. However, those are likely just initial asks, and those asks are never the same as what teams get. It's part of the process. Case in point was Pirates with McCutchen. Their initial ask seemed to be Robles, Lopez, and a third piece (two top 50 prospects and more). Then, the Pirates reportedly almost dealt McCutchen for Giolito, Dunning, and a third piece. This is a far cry from the initial ask, and that's how it goes. White Sox are right to ask for the world from the start to shy away teams not really interested in full, then work with the teams that are, just like Pirates with McCutchen as it seems like Pirates asked a lot at start but Nationals weren't phased and worked with Pirates before eventually dealing for Adam Eaton instead. This is all part of the negotiation process and nearly every trade ever made shows this. 

Many trade speculations I have seen have involved either Bell or Meadows along with Glasnow. I, however, don't think either would have to go in this trade. Not even Chris Sale netted the White Sox a return that would compare to Glasnow plus Meadows or Bell. Yes, the Sale trade netted the top prospect in baseball and another top prospect, but Glasnow, Meadows, and Bell are all top 20 or top 30 prospects. Giving 2 away in any deal is absurd and stuff like that just doesn't happen. 

Glasnow seems like the top guy that would go in this deal and the White Sox would be dumb to say no. But after Glasnow, I doubt Bell, Keller, or Meadows would have to go. Bell and Meadows for the reasons I mentioned before, and Keller because White Sox will likely not look for another pitching prospect heavy deal after Sale and Eaton deals fixed them up there. After Glasnow: Newman, Hayes, Tucker, Diaz, etc are all pieces that could be dealt. White Sox are pretty good at SS, but if they want best prospects, they'll take Newman and he'd be a very nice second piece in the deal. Then, there's Hayes. Hayes would be a prospect White Sox would desire at a position that they'd like to have even though he's years off. Tucker is another SS but maybe White Sox would take him with Hayes to enhance deals overall value and depth. Diaz seems like he'd be in this deal as he would give the White Sox the younger catcher with years of control they would like. 

Pirates farm system is so deep that they can nab Quintana while keeping Meadows, Bell, and Keller. They would not need to sell the farm for him as they would still be in good shape. I think it's possible 3 or 4 of the Pirates top 10s would go in this deal, however, because that's still about what you may need to give to get Quintana, but the price wouldn't be as astronomical as most think. 

My speculated deals: 
Pirates get: Jose Quintana
White Sox get: Tyler Glasnow, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Cole Tucker, Elias Diaz, Jose Osuna, maybe one very minor piece 
OR
Pirates get: Jose Quintana
White Sox get: Tyler Glasnow, Kevin Newman, Elias Diaz, minor piece

These proposals would be great for both sides. Pirates get the big-time starting pitcher while the White Sox continue to stock up on premier young talent, including another top pitching prospect and some very nice position player prospects to boot. 

Jose Quintana is solid, but he is not a perennial big-time Cy Young award candidate or quite as talented as some of the super upper-tier pitchers in the game, such as one the White Sox already dealt in Chris Sale. His contract is insanely good which helps his value, but that doesn't mean he's worth a Meadows and/or a Bell. White Sox would undoubtedly get a great haul for him if the top piece in return is Glasnow with other very solid position player prospects going as well. Getting 3 or 4 of the Pirates top 10 prospects (one of the best farm systems in the league) is nothing to sneeze at and the White Sox would be dumb to say no to an offer like that.

In the end, I've seen many deals similar to this, and in almost none of them does a team give up two of their top 3 or 4 prospects. Most times, it ends up being one elite prospect with 2 or 3 other very solid prospects and a minor piece or two. It usually never ends up being a deal that drains a team of two or more mega prospects. That's just not how it works. 

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Pirates need to grab Jose Quintana

The Pirates have re-upped with starting pitcher Ivan Nova on a very nice 3-year deal worth about $26M, according to reports. This puts Pirates projected rotation at Cole, Taillon, Nova, Kuhl, and a battle for the last spot between Glasnow, Brault, Williams, Hutchison then maybe eventually Kingham. Even with this, the Pirates are reportedly still trying hard to land White Sox star lefty Jose Quintana. In my opinion, the Pirates have to find a way to land Quintana for a couple of reasons. 

Firstly, it would make the rotation lethal. You tell me how many rotations would be better than Cole, Quintana, Taillon, Nova, Kuhl (assuming Glasnow goes in Quintana deal) and maybe eventually Kingham. There aren't many rotations that would boast better. It would make the Pirates a force in the NL all of a sudden and might even put the team around or even over 2015 levels when they won 98 games. Combined that with the current bullpen and lineup, and the team might end up being a major threat to anyone, even the Cubs. 

Secondly, Quintana would provide the Pirates with security. Cole missed most of 2016 with injuries and it is up in the air if that will be an issue down the road again. Also, Taillon has been injury prone. Combined this with the fact that the young pitchers will be watched carefully, Quintana would give the Pirates a big-time steady arm. Quintana is as good as an ace and would be great security in case something would happen to Cole or Taillon. He is also a workhorse, having pitched over 200 innings each of the last 4 years. This would help the bullpen that could be taxed more when the youngsters start because they are being monitored closely. Quintana can step in and give you 6 or 7 strong innings much more often than not. He's as consistent as they come. 

Any way you slice it, Quintana would be a great get for the Pirates but not just out of luxury but rather out of necessity perhaps. Getting Quintana makes the rotation top notch while also being able to cover the Pirates in case of injuries to their other top starters. The rotation was obviously worse off without Cole in 2016 when they leaned heavily on Taillon, Kuhl, and eventually Nova. Getting Quintana can alleviate some of the pressure should such a thing happen again. 

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

The bullpen dominoes are ready to fall

The Pirates signed right-handed reliever Daniel Hudson to a 2-year deal worth $11M with incentives for games finished on Monday. The deal was confirmed by Hudson himself on twitter but not by the Pirates just yet as they go through the final details to finalize the deal, and confirmation on that end should come very soon. With Daniel Hudson aboard for the Pirates as a late-inning reliever, it is even more apparent now that the Pirates will trade one or two arms from the bullpen logjam. The prominent names being bandied about are Antonio Bastardo and Tony Watson, though Jared Hughes, Wade LeBlanc, and others could also make some level of sense as bait. 

Let's start with the less obvious of Hughes, LeBlanc, or others being dealt. I doubt we see this, but it is possible. However, if Pirates wanted no parts of Hughes or LeBlanc, they would have been non-tendered. I can't see any team giving up much of anything to get either of these guys. Now, I could see a team giving up something of value for Schugel, but he is a nice asset for the Pirates to have with many years of control remaining after a nice 2016 campaign. I envision Schugel in the bullpen to start the year for the Pirates. Then there is Tyler Webb, who the Pirates picked up in Rule 5 off the Yankees. It is very possible that the Pirates could send him back to the Yankees for little risk, but I think the Pirates want to wait to see what he has before doing that. They took him in Rule 5. Might as well take a look at him. 

Now to the more obvious trade candidates which are Tony Watson and Antonio Bastardo. 

First, Tony Watson. Watson has had a nice career for the Pirates and is regarded as a top-shelf bullpen arm. It only enhances his usefulness that he is a lefty. However, in 2016, Watson has one of his worse years and slowed down drastically late in the year as his appearances got up in the 60s and 70s. He's been very durable, but the questions about said durability come into question now. He's getting over 70 appearances a year regularly these days but now the concern is whether he is still capable of doing it. Teams will start to wonder if his arm is shot and if his best years are behind him. However, on the surface, he is still seen as a dependable lefty and could be useful in just about every bullpen in the league. 

However, if Watson gets back to old ways, the Pirates having him in 2016 makes the bullpen very formidable with Nicasio, Rivero, Watson, and Hudson manning the backend. Put Schugel and others in long/middle relief and the bullpen starts to look great, which can even out an average rotation. But the Pirates must be careful if they keep Watson and almost be sure he will bounce back because if he doesn't, trading him in July would be a mess or they lose him for nothing in free agency. 

Now onto Bastardo. I think Bastardo is the odd man out of this bullpen logjam. He's expensive for what he did in 2016, and he's not as reliable as Rivero or Watson. Pirates would probably love to get out of Bastardo's contract even though the Mets are chipping in some. In this lefty relief market, I could see teams wanting him. However, I think a Bastardo trade would be more reminiscent of a salary dump than anything else. It would be a way for the Pirates to get out from under his contract and reallocate the money elsewhere. 

Trading one or both of Watson or Bastardo would give the Pirates salary relief which could help them land the starting pitching they so desperately need. The bullpen has always been something Huntington has built well, so his bullpen decisions have earned the trust of many. Overall, I think that Bastardo or Watson will get dealt, but not both. If I had to guess, I'd say Bastardo will get dealt as his role on the Pirates is super unclear and his production can be easily filled by someone far more affordable. I do not get that sense with such a steady reliever like Watson. In the end, I will support just about any move the Pirates make in the bullpen (unless they trade Rivero) because one of Huntington's best skills is building bullpens. 

Monday, December 19, 2016

What should the Pirates do with Drew Hutchison?


Pirates acquired starting pitcher Drew Hutchison from the Toronto Blue Jays right at the trade deadline in the infamous Francisco Liriano salary dump trade (or whatever else you want to call it). The Pirates then kept him down in AAA in order to have control of him for one additional year than they would have if they had him up initially. However, he didn't really contribute much in September for the club, and his future is in certain jeopardy. His role on the Pirates is shrouded in mystery and the questions about what they will do with him loom. So, I will look at many angles of this to see what the Pirates should do with the right-hander.

1) Put him in a rotation: The obvious spot for him is in the rotation as he is a starter by trade. However, given the multitude of younger options the Pirates have and the immense likelihood they will add another starting pitcher or two this offseason, the spot in the MLB rotation doesn't appear to be his to lose, let alone win for that matter. And it would seem rather odd to make the trade they did to get him and praise how much they like him just to have him be minor league depth in the end. 

2) Put him in the bullpen: The bullpen might be just the spot for Hutchison. The Pirates are in need of a long man in that bullpen and normally like to get a former veteran starter to do it. Well, this time around, they may not need to find one elsewhere as they may already have one in Hutchison. Many pitchers get better upon being switched from starter to reliever, and it is very possible Hutchison could be another. I would give him the inside track to the long reliever job because he is a more veteran guy that brings more MLB experience to the table than Williams, Brault, or others. I think the Pirates would also feel more compelled to experiment a long man role with Hutchison instead of their younger starting pitchers who they would rather want to keep as starters for now. 

3) Trade him: The demand for starting pitching is sky high right now. Just about every team is looking for it. It's possible a team looks at Hutchison and thinks he's got potential (which is what the Pirates thought when trading for him). I don't think he'd bring back anything of much use in a trade, but I could certainly see a couple of teams biting on him given the starting pitching market. The most likely teams in on him would be teams rebuilding that are waiting for their younger pitchers to mold and just want an able body in there to stopgap while also hoping he pitches well enough for them to be a good trade chip at the deadline. 

Any of these things could very certainly happen. However, if I had to guess, I'd say Hutchison will be on the Pirates opening day roster as the reliever. If he's not, then he will be on a rebuilding teams' Opening Day roster as a starter. I don't see him in the Pirates rotation or as AAA filler. It just doesn't make sense either way. In the end, the Pirates potentially have a commodity in Hutchison, if he is used the right way. 

Friday, December 16, 2016

Pirates trade profile: Jeremy Jeffress

The Pirates main need this offseason is, of course, starting pitching. However, there is also an obvious need for bullpen pitching. Could the Pirates look at a former Brewers closer for help? I examine. 

The Rangers are reportedly drawing interest in reliever Jeremy Jeffress, who they recently acquired from the Brewers. Despite being troubled off the field at times, Jeffress is a great asset to have on the field. Jeffress has found his footing the last few years with Milwaukee and Texas after bouncing around for a bit. He has been quietly one of the more quality relievers in the league the last few seasons, compiling an ERA of under 3.00 since signing a minor league deal with Milwaukee in 2014. 

Jeffress is also rather affordable and controllable. He is projected to make $2.9M in his first go through of arbitration which means he's controlled for a total of three more seasons overall. This is certainly an attractive part of the potential Jeffress could offer. 

Jeremy Jeffress also brings a little bit of closers' experience with him. In 2016, Jeffress saved 27 games for the Brewers before being shipped off to Texas where he wasn't the closer. However, the Pirates always like to bring in guys with closers experience like this that are also controllable, so I could certainly see the fit anyhow. 

The big obstacle here is that the Rangers will sell very high on Jeffress knowing that he's controlled through 2019, and they have shown they are not scared about keeping players that have been in trouble off the field. Rangers do not need to trade Jeffress as he can be a big part of that bullpen for three more years, especially for a team that needs pitching like the Rangers. They would certainly need to be really compelled by an offer to make a deal.

Overall, Jeffress would be a great fit for the Pirates, assuming his off-the-field troubles are behind him. However, I don't think the Pirates are going to, or need to, give up a big haul just to get a reliever, even if he is controlled for three more years and is a high-end player. It's a nice thought to have him fill into a late inning role to stabilize the bullpen, but it seems like an unrealistic possibility. 

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Pirates plan to keep McCutchen. Offseason plan in focus?

The Pirates were reportedly very close to dealing Andrew McCutchen to the Washington Nationals for Lucas Giolito, Dane Dunning, and a third piece. Nationals eventually gave up those two as well as Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton from the White Sox instead. Now the Pirates expect to keep McCutchen and possibly move him to a corner OF spot. 

Now we can all exhale knowing that McCutchen will likely go to Bradenton with the Pirates and be penciled into that Opening Day lineup. The team's franchise guy is still around. But now that the McCutchen saga is past, we can look towards the future and what this means for Pirates in 2017. 

A McCutchen trade would have at least signaled a reload for the Pittsburgh Pirates. A restocking but not totally starting over. But instead, McCutchen not being dealt is a strong indicator that the team can now look to build up a competitive roster for 2017 around a core that includes the former MVP. 

There appeared to be a hold up of all of the Pirates offseason plans until McCutchen saga was solved. And it's obvious why because the difference in directions between trading him and not trading him is immense. I fully expect now the Pirates will feel relief and continue on with all the other offseason plans they have waiting for them. 

I believe the direction has now been clearly set. The Pirates will add to this core and set sail for the 2017 season as they look to compete in a very tough National League to navigate through. However, we now know captain McCutchen will still be steering the ship through whatever dangers await them

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Can Nationals still trade for Andrew McCutchen


There have been reports that the Nationals are very likely to land Chris Sale from the White Sox. In the reported return would be top outfield prospect Victor Robles, top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito, and probably a bit more. Now, we don't know the full deal just yet, but it doesn't appear that Reynaldo Lopez, Joe Ross, and some other big pieces the Nationals have will not be included in the trade. So the question now becomes, can the Nationals still find a way to land Andrew McCutchen?

Pirates have been said to want Victor Robles in the McCutchen trade this whole time and seemed almost insistent on it. But now that it looks like Robles is going to the White Sox, it would seem that a trade between the two teams just won't work. Well, the whole point of these things is to compromise on a good baseball trade, and the Nationals still have some very intriguing pieces to offer. 

Some of these pieces are Lopez, Ross, Stevenson, Ward, Voth, Severino, Fedde, Cole, Glover, and others. Some of these pieces may go to White Sox for Sale, but even then, the Nationals might have the pieces to make it work. 

Towards the top of the Pirates list would certainly be Lopez or Ross. Both are young and controllable and can fill into rotation for a long time. Lopez would be easier to get off the Nationals as they likely would want known commodity in Ross in the rotation. 

However, is it possible the Pirates ask for both Ross and Lopez? I mean, for the Pirates, it would make sense. It would give them rotation stability for a long time, and in the modern pitching market, that cannot be overstated. Would the Nationals do it is the real question. As previously stated, Nationals probably want to hold onto one or the other, likely Ross but could likely absorb blow of losing both with Scherzer, Sale, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Cole, and Voth as all guys that could have rotation spots. That kind of rotation would still give the Nationals a real chance to win a lot of games. 

If Nationals are reluctant to part with both, they still have a lot of good pieces to offer. Stevenson is an OF prospect the Pirates could like, Fedde is a nice pitching prospect, they have a bevy of catching prospects (though the Pirates don't need that), 3B prospect Drew Ward might be intriguing, Glover could very well be a future closer and the Nationals love him, and 2B/SS prospect Wilmer Difo is also a good piece as well. Nationals are deep and have many more good pieces than they let on. 

There is a lot to pick from in the Nats system, but talks would start at Ross or Lopez. The reports of Nationals thinking they could get both McCutchen and Sale might not be far off because it looks like they might just be able to. Not having Robles in trade complicates things and might lead Nationals to be just short on McCutchen trade, if they are, but they can still put together a pretty good offer for a superstar center fielder. 

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Trading McCutchen does make the Pirates stronger

It's come to everyone's attention that a trade of Andrew McCutchen is very likely to happen. This has gotten everyone thinking about what the implications of such a trade would be. Would it be giving up? Is it a salary dump? These are all questions in the minds of people right now. Well, luckily I am here to sift through all of this and answer why a McCutchen trade would actually make the Pirates stronger. 

Firstly, all implications point to the Pirates wanting a massive haul back for McCutchen, as they should. And it also doesn't look like the Pirates are looking for a bunch of prospects that won't make the team until 2019. No, it looks like the Pirates want some young talent that can help in 2017 while maybe being able to land a guy or two that comes in to help a couple years down the road. 

Secondly, while McCutchen has an affordable contract, the Pirates cannot afford to take a risk on him tanking in 2017. While his last two months in 2016 looked encouraging and he will likely bounce back, the Pirates are in no position to take that risk and lose. If they lose that risk then they stand losing McCutchen in a real salary dump next year with his trade value super low or keeping a declining player on the roster at a high price for the Pirates standards then losing him for nothing in 2018. 

Thirdly, Meadows is waiting in the wings. Meadows is a player the Pirates want to be a factor in 2017, and he provides the Pirates with better defense than McCutchen while potentially being able to put up numbers the Pirates can certainly run with offensively, even with him as a rookie. 

Fourthly, Pirates can backfill McCutchen's production in the lineup with Bell, a stopgap OF until Meadows is ready, then Meadows when he's ready. It's not like the Pirates cannot find production to match McCutchen, especially the 2016 version, throughout the lineup. The Pirates offense will survive. In fact, they might even be better. 

Assuming they trade McCutchen for a young SP, a top prospect, and more, then use the McCutchen money to fill other needs the team has, I don't see how the team doesn't get stronger. They strengthen the pitching in 2017 which was a huge problem while their lineup won't take a huge hit if they prepare properly. They would also be getting pieces that will make the team better in the future as well, meaning the Pirates can contend for more years down the road instead of going through another long losing drought. 

In the end, the Pirates are not out here spending $150M every year to contend. They have to make tough decisions like this to keep themselves consistently competitive for a long time. It might hurt to see a guy like McCutchen go because he helped bring the winning culture back to the Pirates, but we can't be so concerned with what the Pirates did to bring the winning back. We have to be more concerned with how to keep the winning culture and unfortunately, trading McCutchen is one of the moves that has to be made for that to happen. 

The "one player is the whole team" culture is long gone. Players just aren't playing whole careers in one place anymore. No player is more important than the well-being of the entire team. There are reasons that the Pirates can be stronger after trading McCutchen, and in baseball, teams have to make moves to make the team better, not just to appease a player or two. Rosters are made of many players, not a couple.

If Pirates appeased McCutchen at cost of team's well-being, he would have had an extension while the Pirates have no money to spend on the rest of the team. The team would win 60 games and nobody would be happy. Trading McCutchen would hurt, but if exploring trading him makes the team better, it has to be considered. These decisions made are not personal decisions, these are business decisions. Now, it's okay to be upset about McCutchen possibly being dealt, and that is only natural, but I hope it's realized why it is happening. 

Friday, December 2, 2016

Pirates sign Wade LeBlanc

     Today, the Pirates signed lefty reliever non-tender candidate Wade LeBlanc to a one-year deal with an option. LeBlanc was acquired by the Pirates from the Mariners in September and did well in limited time (12 IP 0.75 ERA)

     The deal is cheap but there is a possibility that he makes the Opening Day roster in the bullpen. This is especially the case if this is a prelude to a Watson or Bastardo trade down the road. Overall, it's worth taking the very cheap risk on LeBlanc and see what you can get. Maybe the Pirates will strike gold again, but let's not play too much into this minor signing just yet.